Livin' La Vida Drunko

Many, many computer problems later here they are...This may be the last week...Enjoy.






SIDES (24-19): Tennessee +10.0; Buffalo -1.5; Tampa Bay +3.0


TOTALS (36-23-2): Dal./Jac. Over 45.0; Den./Oak. Under 50.5; Mia./Det. Over 43.0


Dear God...

One For My Horses...Snoopy And Prickly Pete

    RIP to Cream bassist Jack Bruce who passed away at age 71. I once played "Tales of Brave Ulysses" for a gym full of 5th graders and 3 heads exploded. A true psychedelic rock God...

Considering the copious drugs it too to write tunes like "Anyone for Tennis" or lines like "...but the rainbow had a beard!" it's amazing he lasted this long really.

 

    Is anyone else getting a visual of Jerry Jones in his luxury box screaming today like a frustrated Sheldon Cooper of The Big Bang Theory..."WEE-DON!!" But time for this...

 

SIDES (21-17): Tampa Bay +7.0; Houston +2.5; Jets +8.5; Arizona +1.5; Minnesota -1.0

 

TOTALS (33-20-2): Was./Min. Over 44.0; T.B./Cle. Under 44.0; Phi./Hou. Under 48.0; S.D./Mia. Under 45.0; ST.L./S.F. Over 44.0; Bal./Pit. Under 47.0

 

A bit dog-ish, a tad under-ish...they are what they are...

 

A Little Strong But Good

    To quote the late, great George Costanza (he died when Jason Alexander got that hair weave), "We're back, baby!" After that hard to swallow 4-8-1 we went 9-4 last week...I think it was the mango...and we're back with these for your perusal...

SIDES (18-15): Pittsburgh +3.5; Buffalo +3.0; Oakland +6.5; Cincinnati +2.5; Philadelphia +1.0

TOTALS (30-18-2): Min./T.B. Over 43.0; Mia./Jac. Over 42.5; St.L./K.C. Under 44.0; Sea./Car. Under 45.0; Oak./Cle. Under 44.0

For what they're worth...

Another Day, No More Dollars

    Losing out on one winner due to a Pick 6 in the last 20 seconds (Den./NYJ) is heartbreaking. Losing out on 3 winners because of a second Pick 6 in the final 20 seconds is kinda like being in prison in New Hampshire and having to stamp out "Live Free Or Die" on license plates all day...It's cruel and unusual. We went from 7-6 or 6-6-1 to 4-8-1 sadly.

    The system we used is Value-based which is why we are often contrarian to public handicappers. This week there are quite a few contrarian plays, but we are concerned the method may be understating the ineffectiveness of QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Charlie Whitehurst (oh, it thinks they're bad, but maybe unable to fathom just how bad). To date we are 39-29-1 overall. Let's see how today plays out before we start tweaking the parts. Here they are...

SIDES (15-13): Oakland +3.5; Minnesota +6.5; Tennessee +6.0; Cincinnati +3.5; Miami +3.0

TOTALS (24-16-1): Ten./Was. Under 46.5; N.O./Det. Over 46.5; Mia./Chi. Under 48.0; Atl./Bal. Under 50.0; Cle./Jac. Over 44.5; Cin./Ind. Under 50.5; Min./Buf. Over 43.5; NYG/Dal. Over 47.0

Do as you wish with these...

Notes While Having Tea With The Tillerman (NFL-Week 6)

**UPDATE: We forgot to list one final play...Washington +5.0. Apologies...

You don't wanna hear my usual crap...so on to the picks...

SIDES (13-9): Tampa Bay +3.5; Pittsburgh +2.0; Oakland +7.0; Tennessee -4.0; New England -1.0

TOTALS (22-12-1): Det./Min. Over 43.0; Den./NYJ Under 48.0; Jac./Ten. Over 42.0; Was./Ari. Under 47.0; NYG/Phi. Under 50.0; Bal./T.B. Under 44.0; Chi./Atl. Under 55.5

That's it. Lots of Unders so get that clock windmill-ing arm ready! Luck...

With The Neck Of A Snapping Turtle (NFL-Week 5)

First off to the bus I'm behind each day during my morning commute...could you put a little jog on it Zach and Giana when you're getting aboard. Oh, and also how 'bout taking the first seat available instead of moseying all the way to the back...It's like Rosa Parks went to jail for nothing.

Yes, there's also this...

SIDES (8-8): Houston +5.5; New England +3.0; San Francisco -4.5; Philadelphia -4.5; Tampa Bay +10.0; N.Y. Jets +6.5

TOTAL: (16-9-1): Atl/NYG Under 51.0; Buf./Det. Over 43.5; Cin./N.E. Over 45.5; St.L./Phi. Under 48.0; Bal./Ind. Under 49.0; Hou./Dal. Over 47.5; NYJ/S.D. Under 44.0

A mix of the contrarian and others...Good luck!

Mama's On Pills, Daddy's Over The Hill (NFL Week4)

Another day and no more dollars, but before we list the picks...

YOUTUBE DISAPPOINTMENT ALERT: The old "Houston Oilers #1" song is not as jubilantly whimsical as I remembered it...you know, just mentioning it...

NOTE: Today's selections lean to the highly contrarian side...if that's yer kinda thing...

SIDES (5-7): Minnesota (+4.0), Tennessee (+7.5), Tampa Bay (+7.5), Houston (-2.5)

TOTALS (16-9-1): Buf./Hou. Under 44.0, Jac./S.D. Over 44.5

Best of luck and that type-a thing...

Like A Burned-Out Bettie Page (NFL Week 3)

Sorry for the delay...life...it sucks...

SIDES (4-4): Den. +4.5, Hou. +1.0, Cle. +1.0, Pit. +3.0

TOTALS (9-7-1): S.D. Under 45.5, Dal. Over 45.0, Was. Under 49.0, Hou. Over 41.5, Bal. Over 43.0, Oak. Under 47.0, S.F. Over 42.0, Den. Under 48.0, Pit. Over 42.5.

Giving A Crippled Crab A Crutch (Week 2)

Now that summer is gone one of the things I miss is the sound of the Ice Cream Truck coming through my neighborhood. I mean I just can't get enough of a xylophone version of "Turkey in the Straw" being played ad nauseum on a continuous loop...and besides that dessert just tastes better when it's served by a pedophile.

But enough of that...Here's today's slightly contrarian based picks-

SIDES (4-2): NY Giants PK, Detroit +2.5

TOTALS (5-4-1): KC/DEN under 50.5, STL/TB over 37.5, ATL/CIN under 48.5, DET/CAR over 43.5, NO/CLE over 48.5, MIA/BUF under 42.5, NYJ/GB under 46.5

From Ray Rice With Love (MNF)

New video out today shows Ray Rice cold-cocking his then fiancée, now wife, Janay Palmer in an elevator at the Revel Hotel Casino in Atlantic City and then dragging her into the hallway "caveman-style". Begging the question what went down faster Janay Rice or the Revel Hotel Casino. In light of the damning video the Ravens released Rice this afternoon. Meanwhile Janay has tabled her future with Mr. Rice...at least until she finds out how much of his recent $35M contract is guaranteed.

Here's our feeling on MNF...

SIDES (3-2): San Diego +2.5

TOTALS (4-4-1): S.D./Ari. under 46.5

Good luck and such.

Notes While Listening To Buffalo Springfield (Week 1)

For what it's worth...

NFL Selections-

Sides (0-0): Minnesota (+3), Oakland (+5.5), Baltimore (-2.0), Buffalo (+7.0), Tampa Bay (-2.0).

Totals (0-1): Min./St.L. over 43.5, Cle./Pit. over 41.5, Buf./Chi. Under 47.0, Was. Hou. under 44.0, Ten./K.C. under 44.5, N.E./Mia. under 46.5, Car./T.B. over 38.0, Ind./Den. under 55.0.

A decent contrarian bent to these picks...Good luck!

Where Have You Gone Bucky Scribner (NFL Kickoff)

Oh, Football we've missed you so...and just for the heckuva it how 'bout a pick to open the season... Green Bay/Seattle Under 47.5. Good luck!

Notes From A Bus Station Bathroom (NFC East)

QUICK HITS

--The big NFL/Fantasy news is that Browns WR Josh Gordon had his year-long suspension for a 2^nd pot violation upheld. To which Ravens RB and noted fiancée/wife beater Ray Rice (2 game suspension) responded,  “Now there’s a bad guy. I’d have to smack my girl around 7 more times to be as thuggish as that dude!”

 --The University of North Carolina football program has apparently been hit by a Hazing scandal. Reports are sketchy but it’s amazing how many of these incidents contain some form of sodomy against the victims. Psychologists say it is the Heterosexual Big Men On Campus way of protecting their turf, but wouldn’t you think if word got out they were jamming things up each other’s butts at Training Camp that every homosexual on campus would wanna go out for the team…Hey, I’m no Doctor…just musing…

--Finally we’ve been remiss in not acknowledging the death of classic Blues/Rock guitarist Johnny Winter who I believed passed from exposure after his girlfriend switched to 60 watt light bulbs…RIP.

 

Hey at least College Football's back!

 

 NFC EAST

1. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: This division is more offensive than Don Rickles playing Ellis Island. If there was one standout defense we’d lean that way, but things seem to go from the average (Giants) to the absurd (Cowboys) on that side of the ball so we’ll go with the top O and that appears to be the Iggles by a decent margin.

Offense: STRENGTH- RB/OL…For years now the Eagles have had a strong offensive foundation in LeSean McCoy in the backfield and the trio of Evan Mathis, Jason Peters and Todd Herremans up front. Unfortunately they were held back by Michael Vick’s penchant to give the ball up like it was samples at Costco. Philly finished 30/31 in turnover ratio in 2012/2011. A brutal combination combined with a defense that’s been trending downward for several years. Last year thanks to the insertion of Nick Foles at the helm the Eagles finished #4 in TO ratio and suddenly they’re back to the 10-6 team they were before. We view Foles’ 27-2 TD/INT numbers like we viewed David Garrard’s 18-3 stat for Jacksonville in 2007. He ain’t gonna do that again, but he ain’t gonna tank either (who was my grammar teacher anyhow?). McCoy and the line plus excellent TEs (Celek, Ertz) should keep this somewhat gimmicky offense afloat for another year.

 WEAKNESS- No doubt it’s at WR where Desean Jackson flew the nest for Washington taking with him 85/1332/9, all team leading numbers. Fantasy pyrite Jeremy Maclin returns, sticky fingered RB Darren Sproles slides in and Riley Cooper’s off a career year, but none of it replaces the true field-stretching talent that Jackson possessed. Gimmicks aren’t always bad. Face-painting worked for KISS, Ziggy Stardust scored for David Bowie and even DEVO got by wearing flower pots on their heads. But you gotta have talent and/or you gotta keep evolving or you’ll end up just a buncha barefoot neo-hippies in overalls with banjos and washboards like Dexy’s Midnight Runners. How creative Chip Kelly and Foles can get with this offense will determine if they can repeat in the East.

Defense:  STRENGTH- You could call this Trent Cole and a bunch of holes, but it’s probably not that bad. DLs Fletcher Cox and Cedric Thornton are serviceable and if LB DeMeco Ryans can bounce back from a tough 2013 the front 7 can hold its own…

 WEAKNESS- …the secondary, ah, not so much. The CBs are average, but Nate Allen and ex-Saint Malcolm Jenkins don’t inspire confidence at safety. With the number of quality receiving TEs growing this can be a problem; one that will be compounded if the pass rush of Cole suffers from age (31) or injury.

2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: ...by a hair over the Giants and, yes, unlike Phil Simms I am saying (er, writing) that name…though I think this may be the first fight Native Americans win since Little Bighorn.

Offense: STRENGTH- Who’d have thought a team with this name would have such issues over a Wounded Knee…at least outside of South Dakota I mean. But that is the real issue here. In 2012 Robert Griffin had a 20-5 ratio and 7 rushing TDs. Then every fantasy owners arch enemy Mike Shanahan pushed him into that playoff game on a gimpy leg and it all went south with a 16-12 ratio and zero rush TDs last year. RG-Tri still posted an 82.2 QB Rate last year so it wasn’t a total debacle. If he can fall somewhere in between his first two seasons then along with RB Alfred Morris and TE Jordan Reed the ‘Skins have a nice young nucleus to build around. Reports from the preseason are decidedly mixed so we’ll see.

 

Speaking of Wounded Knee: Free Leonard Peltier...no, seriously, they didn't charge to use this picture...It's free Leonard Peltier...

 

WEAKNESS- Offensive Line…the scary part is that LT Trent Williams actually over-achieved in a 3-13 season so things could be worse up front. Losing standout C Will Montgomery is a big blow, but 4 of the 5 here were starters for the 2012 club that finished #4 in Total Offense so hope is alive.

Defense: STRENGTH- Brian Orakpo is the One-Man Riot Squad (quick, name that classic wrestler?) on this side of the ball, but this year gets help in the form of ex-Cowboy Jason Hatcher. The latter is a stud if healthy and looks good so far in preseason. Improving on last year’s 487 pts allowed won’t be difficult. How much they can improve will determine if this club has playoff legs.

WEAKNESS- Last year the DBs got toasted like Snoop Dogg on a Jamaican vacation…early and often! Deangelo Hall and Dave Amerson struggled at CB and while the latter may improve in his 2^nd year the former may be finished. FS Ryan Clark is a keeper, but the rest better hope Orakpo/Hatcher create pressure or they may wind up buttered and sliced vs. the better passing attacks.

NEW YORK GIANTS: I have these guys a lambs breath behind Washington and their fortunes pretty much depend on the same thing…QB and Defense. Since winning the Super Bowl the Gi’nts have gone a playoff-less 16-16, but a revamped offense and a healthy Jason Pierre-Paul are what they are counting on to boost them into January football this year.

Offense: STRENGTH- They say if you slip and fall and people laugh it’s a sign you’re still young. If you slip and fall and people immediately call for an ambulance that’s a sign you’re old. Eli Manning took quite a nasty tumble last year and while 33 isn’t old when you consider his brother Peyton we do feel some folks have their fingers on the 9 in 911 as regards the former Ole Miss Rebel. After 18 TDs vs. 27 INTs and a 69.4 QB Rate OC Kevin Gilbride was shown the door and former Green Bay assistant Ben McAdoo is in. He brings with him a short passing game approach and that’s good because…

WEAKNESS- Offensive Line…LT Will Beatty is off his worst year as a pro, RG Chris Snee retired, new addition John Jerry was let go from the Bully-Gate thin line of the Dolphins and quality pickup LG Geoff Schwartz (toe)  may have to start the season on IR. I haven’t seen things this bad in the trenches since my Lit. 101 Professor assigned All Quiet on the Western Front. On the bright side Schwartz may be OK, Beatty may bounce back and RT Justin Pugh may justify his #19 overall pick in his 2^nd year. Consensus is they better because if Eli goes down another 39 times like last year Tom Coughlin may join his son-in-law Snee as an ex-Giant next year.

Defense: STRENGTH- Everyone at the top of this division appears to have the same blueprint defensively…one standout and prayers for improvement from those around him. The Redskins have Orakpo, the Eagles have Cole and the Giants hope to rely on a healthy Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP was a monster in 2011-12, but slowed by injuries last year. If he’s all the way back and Matthias Kiwanuka rediscovers his pass rush groove that pair along with the solid addition of CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could put the defense head and shoulders above the rest of the division. With the top 3 here very close and so many question marks in Wash and Philly a stout dependable defense could be enough to vault the G-Men back into the playoffs.

WEAKNESS- Linebacker…LOLB Spencer Paysinger is like Dick Van Dyke’s ottoman-you forget it’s there till it screws you-but worse things could happen, MLB Jon Beason is a very old and beat up 29, ROLB Jameel McLain crapped out of Baltimore over the last two seasons and for top backup Mark Herzlich we have two words…Long Snapper (keep it in mind). Still overall this defense is solid, as long as they don’t have to cover up for another league worst 44 turnovers from the offense, and could get them to the top of probably the overall weakest division (along with the AFC South) in football.

DALLAS COWBOYS: Intellectual Bon Vivant Christopher Hitchens once remarked of the Rev. Jerry Falwell, Iif you gave him an enema you could bury him in a matchbox!” I often feel much the same way about Cowboys owner Jerry Jones. He has a big payroll to cover, a fancy stadium to fill and as GM he, as Bill Parcells put it, “bought the groceries” here so he’s always gonna paint this club as a Super Bowl contender…Ah, sorry, no.

Offense: STRENGTH- This is not the problem here. Even the once abysmal offense line has been shored up via the draft and kudos to GM J.J. on that. Late season lapses aside Tony Romo is a Tier 2 QB as the Fantasy folk would say and that’s pretty good. Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and DeMarco Murray are also upper end Fantasy relevant and this team will definitely put points on the board. So let’s move along to the more pressing concerns…

WEAKNESS- There’s a new rookie (Zach Martin) at RG, last year’s rookie lineman du jour LG Ronald Leary under-performed a bit and RT Doug Free could revert back to his basket case form of 2011-12, but overall this group is trending in the right direction. But just as pro golfers say you Drive for show, you Putt for dough in the NFL you Score for fantasy, you Defend for victory (what you were expecting Walt Whitman?) and that brings us to…

Defense: STRENGTH- Ah, we’ll get back to you…wait…what’s that MLB Sean Lee is out…never mind then, we’ll get back to you.

A little something to soften the blow...and now...

 

WEAKNESS- They finished 26^th in Points Allowed, but as a team were +8 in T.O. Differential which is trick that can only be pulled off by allowing over 6600 yds., good for worst in the NFL. NT Henry Melton’s return from injury helps, but it’s offset by losing Lee and the secondary was torched like Michael Jackson in a Pepsi commercial for nearly 4600 yds. and 33 TDs. This may not be the worst D in the NFL, but it’s definitely not good and it’s hard to win shootout after shootout…if you don’t believe us YouTube last year’s Detroit game for proof.

Back with more soon.

 

Notes From The Parts Unknown High School Reunion (NFC West)

QUICK HITS

--For those doing the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge please do not nominate Jennifer Beals or Sissy Spacek as they are “grandfather-ed in” for Flashdance and Carrie respectively.

--I have turned down the FaceBook invitation I received to ZUMBA tonight and instead will participate in GOOMBA where I eat a plate of linguine, smoke a cigar and watch an episode of The Sopranos. All things considered I think I’ll feel better that way.

--Making the MLB Playoffs with a negative run-differential is kinda like picking up a hot girl with a huge cold sore on your lip…either the competition is weak or you’ve got money. Lo and behold the Yankees are 2.5 GB for the 2^nd WC with a -27 diff. Still a ways to go and the Mariners/Tigers to leapfrog, but if you’re keeping score the last two teams to accomplish such a feat were the 07 D-Backs and the 87 Twins; both of which fall into the former of the categories.

NFL

This begins our Divisional breakdowns for the 2014 season. Playoff predictions and such will, if you can stomach us long enough, come at the end of the series. The cantankerous horse-racing writer Al Illytch once replied to a reader who said that his handicapping books made the game look too easy, “…it’s about how to win money what do you expect me to show you all my f---ing losers!” In the same vein as an unpaid blogger don’t expect me to pick all the favorites. Nonetheless we’ll start simple with the…

NFC WEST

1. SANFRANCISCO 49ERS: Over the last 9 years the Super Bowl winner has tended to be like a guy on Viagra. They’ve eyed the prize, got all hot at the right time, shot their proverbial load in the playoffs, and then dozed off for say 10-12 hours. In fact half the SB winners over that time have missed the playoffs the following season and only 1, Patriots (04 Champ) in 2005, managed to win a playoff game.

San Fran., on the other hand, is more a Cialis (or as I call it “the procrastinator’s Viagra”) kinda team. They’ve been ready to take the big prize but, as they say in the ads, “they’re waiting till the time is right”. The Niners have gone 36-11-1 over the last 3 seasons, but still haven’t bedded down the Lombardi Trophy and that weekend at the Beach House is running out. We don’t know if they’ll take it all, but folks are jumping off instead of on the bandwagon and that, plus some Seattle regression, could spell good news by the Bay.

OFFENSE: STRENGTH- Normally this would be the Offensive Line, but a new center and the holdout of G Alex Boone is gonna hold us back. Joe Staley and Mike Iupati are strong on the left side but from center out right it’s more of a crapshoot if Boone doesn’t re-sign. That in mind we’ll say Receivers are the strong suit this year. 2013 was a lost year for Michael Crabtree, but 2012, some forget, was lights out (85/1105/9). At TE Vernon Davis is just a step behind Jimmy Graham as the NFCs best and add in the grittiness of Anquan Boldin and the usefulness of ex-Bill Stevie Johnson and this group may not blow you completely away, but they’ll more than get the job done.

WEAKNESS- Radio host Craig Carton refers to QB Colin Kaepernick as “Copernicus” and so far this pre-season HC Jim Harbaugh has been playing Pope Clement VII to his heresy under center. That is tolerating it for now. Of course with Blaine Gabbert as backup he doesn’t have much choice. Kaepernick wasn’t bad last year with a 21-8 ratio, but he needs to keep running effectively (9 TDs in 23 starts) to supplement his efficiency. Hopefully Harbaugh had the wraps on him so far this preseason otherwise he might go all Pope Paul V on his ass if this offense stagnates (I promise no more theological references).

Oh football sometimes I forget the many reasons I love you...but hey there's two right there...

 

DEFENSE: STRENGTH- Despite word that studly Navarro Bowman will miss at least half the season we’ll go Linebackers here. Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith are killers. Ahmad Brooks was strong last year till a 5 game stretch to finish the year which may indicate playing hurt. If he bounces back all Bowman replacement Michael Wilhoite will have to do is be adequate to keep this unit at or near the top of the NFL.

WEAKNESS- There isn’t really a glaring weakness on this side of the ball, but the secondary has been shaky at times. The return of Chris Culliver, who missed all of 2013, at CB may shore things up a bit. Up front the loss of NT Glenn Dorsey isn’t great news, but as he only plays half the snaps they should be able to find a rotation that works in the middle. In the end though they’ll need one more good year out of 34 YO Justin Smith if they want to fulfill their potential.

2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Like a Camaro and Side 2 of Led Zeppelin IV in Fast Times at Ridgemont High a QB and a strong defense can take you a long way in the NFL. It worked out for Damone in the former and the Seahawks in the latter, but can Seattle prolong the good time longer than Damone did in the sack?

OFFENSE: STRENGTH- In 2012 the Hawks had a dilemma not unlike that of Robert Barone in Everybody Loves Raymond after he returned from Italy. Go with safe, standard choice at QB in Matt Flynn (read Amy) or the sexy, unknown in Russell Wilson (read Stefania). Much like every guy who watched those episodes while screaming at the TV Pete Carroll took a chance and it has paid off handsomely. The former Wisconsin Badger (via NC State) is more than just a game manager throwing for 26 TDs in each of his 2 seasons while bumping his YPP into the magical 8.0+ range last season. If Marshawn Lynch keeps pounding and Percy Harvin is healthy this could be a Top 4 NFC offense which combined with this defense is tough to beat.

Just so you know Amy's real life husband was the show's producer otherwise it's a no-brainer.

 

WEAKNESS- I’ll say Guard as opposed to the whole O-Line. Russell Okung (inj.) and Max Unger had down years in 2013, but they could easily bounce back. The other 3 positions, especially guard are up in the air. Pete Carroll went out of his way to praise James Carpenter and J.R. Sweezy after PS Game 2, but it sounded like he was trying to convince himself more than anyone else. Regardless both graded out poorly and Seattle won it all last year so if they just don’t run in circles like those lineman in the old Electronic Football games things should be fine.

DEFENSE: STRENGTH- Secondary…yes you’ll be hearing more from Richard Sherman this year I’m sorry to say. Safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas don’t get the credit they deserve as Erin Andrews chases down Sherman for interviews, but their ability to defend both the run and pass well has been huge.

WEAKNESS- Regression…DLs Brandon Mebane, Cliff Avril and Tony McDaniel along with LB Bruce Irvin all appear to have over-achieved last season. If more than one of them falls back and injuries hit the secondary or pass rusher extraordinaire Michael Bennett this won’t be the complete shutdown unit we saw in the SB. However, even if all that does happen they’ll still be pretty damn good and making a repeat run come January.

3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: Famous horse author Andrew Beyer (read My $50,000 Year at the Races it’s good for you) used the acronym MIHP for a horse that accelerated but did not seem to gain any ground in the Past Performances because the 2-3 horses ahead of him also made their moves at the same time. He called this a Move Into Hot Pace and that’s exactly what this club has been doing. The offense has made some strides filling in around Larry Fitzgerald and the defense is Top 4 (if not 3) in the NFC. Problem is Seattle and San Francisco have taken off like friggin’ rockets in that time, but the gap may be closing.

OFFENSE: STRENGTH- Since we all know about Fitzgerald I’ll call the strong point here 2^nd year RB Andre Ellington. A sixth rd. pick out of Clemson Ellington played only 414 snaps last year (out of 1105), but handled the ball 157 times for 1023 yards from scrimmage and 4 TDs. Extrapolated out over a whole season that would be approximately (you’re not expecting me to pull out a calculator are you?) 2150 yds. and 10 TDs. Fantasy drafters move early.

WEAKNESS- Offensive Line and it’s not even close…In fact this may be the worst line since comedian Doug Benson’s lady repellant, “My penis died can I bury it in your ass…” LT Jared Veldheer is solid and returns after missing two-thirds of 2013. C Lyle Sendlein is adequate and the promotion of last year’s #7 overall pick Jonathan Cooper can only help. Problem is the right-side rotation of Paul Fanaika, Bobby Massie and Bradley Sowell. Fanaika/Sowell were equally miserable in run or pass blocking while Massie can road grade, but has trouble with top pass rushers. They only have 5 combined years of experience so improvement is possible, but the team might regret letting vet Daryn Colledge escape to Miami.

DEFENSE: STRENGTH- If John Abraham is healthy and performing, he and the vastly underrated Calais Campbell could make the pass rush the strong point here. Otherwise the secondary is tops led by CB Patrick Peterson and FS Tyrann Mathieu. If Antonio Cromartie is motivated to erase the debacle of last year in New York this could be a shutdown secondary. The problem is…

WEAKNESS- …Linebacker…John Abraham at 36 is long in the tooth, Kevin Minter has played exactly 1 NFL snap (no kidding) and ex-Raider (ugh) Matt Shaughnessy has a bright future as a special teamer ahead of him. The real problem here though is the season long suspension of standout Darryl Washington. This thrusts the fast fading, 34 YO Larry Foote into the equation so there’s a name to look for in the injury reports very soon. Between the D-Line and the D-Backs it may not matter much, but this is certainly a black hole between those two strong units.

4. ST. LOUIS RAMS: Comedian Patton Oswalt has pointed out that in many of Nick Nolte’s movies (48 Hours, North Dallas Forty) there comes a point where his character is angry, disheveled and has had enough at which point he laments in a gravelly voice, “oh Jeezus Christ…sonuvabitch…not again…” With his straggly gray beard, mussed hair and unkempt look Rams HC Jeff Fisher looked and sounded like a Nick Nolte doppelganger when he got news of QB Sam Bradford’s season ending knee injury…”oh, Jeezus Christ…sonuvabitch…not again…” This squad was already sitting at #4 on most writers NFC West predictions so I guess losing Bradford is kinda like what Branch Rickey told Ralph Kiner when he advised him he was getting a pay cut despite leading the league in homers. “we finished in last with you, we can finish in last without you.”

Not Jeff Fisher...but maybe by the end of the season.

 

OFFENSE: STRENGTH- Does it really matter much when you have your sights set on acquiring Mark Sanchez to pilot your squad. We’ll throw a dart at the thing and say the left-side of the line where former #1 overall Jake Long will line up next to this year’s #2 overall Greg Robinson. Sadly there may be another #1 or #2 overall in the Rams near future.

WEAKNESS- See Mark Sanchez above.

DEFENSE: STRENGTH- As bad as the offense has been it was expected to be better than this defense. Still 4^th year DE Robert Quinn had a breakthrough season in 2013 with 19 Sacks, 7 Forced Fumbles and 12 Tackles For Loss. He’s become the building block that they had hoped Chris Long would be, but there’s not much else here to recommend.

WEAKNESS- Back in the 80s I never would’ve said this, but James Laurinaitis and this LB crew leaves something to be desired. I mean Road Warrior Animal could still kick my ass, but at his age and with Hawk dead I think I could outrun him. In actuality Laurinaitis and 2^nd year man Alec Ogletree are fair to middlin’ and the secondary may be much worse, but I had that Road Warriors idea teed up so I went with it.

 

Probably the NFC East in the next day or two. Comment if you like…

A Motel By The Water & A Quart Of Bombay Gin (AL Notes)

Is it just me or does this whole Ice Bucket Challenge thing sound like a nipple fetishist using people’s charitable nature to see girl’s in wet t-shirts?

In other news I know what with work, vacations, back-to-school shopping  you are busy people so as we did for the National League we have wrapped up the AL in a nice, neat package for you…and I gotta tell you, much like George Costanza’s imaginary addition on The Guggenheim, it really didn’t take that long…Enjoy!

AMERICAN LEAGUE (in power ranking order, playoffs below)

1. OAKLAND A’S- Without arguing specific examples on the whole a pitcher moving from the NL to the AL is kinda like the difference between picking up co-eds at the University of Vermont vs. the University of Texas. At the former the talent isn’t overwhelming and you can get by being quirky and cute; at the latter every chick can rake, so to speak, and you better bring the looks and a trust fund if you wanna make the cut. So when Oakland acquired Samardzjia and Hammel from the Cubs that was a solid move. When they acquired Jon Lester from Boston, however, they got a killer! He’s already 3-0 with a 1.98 FIP in 3 starts for them and he has 2 excellent playoff runs on his resume. The return of Josh Reddick has shored up the lineup and Josh Donaldson seems to be picking up the pace in August. Toss in the emergence of Sean Doolittle (12.65 K/9) as closer and some nice platoon pieces (Gomes, Jaso, Callaspo, Vogt) to balance the lineup and we believe they’ll hold off the Angels in the West.

2. DETROIT TIGERS- As the old LHP (loch-handed poet) Robert Burns wrote, “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men/Gang aft a-gley” which I believe is Scottish for “I burned the fuckin’ scones again!” The additions of David Price and Joakim Soria were supposed to make this staff unbeatable and rectify the bullpen respectively. Now Soria’s on the DL along with Anibal Sanchez, Justin Verlander has “multiple incidences of inflammation” in his shoulder and closer Joe Nathan is thinking of growing a Joba-esque beard so he can flip off fans with that under-the-chin gesture without drawing notice from the press. Where there’s Scherzer and Miggy there’s enough to get by, but if they don’t pull their scones out of the fire, in a manner of speaking, soon it will all be for waste.

Joey Nat keepin' it classy!

 

3. LA/ANAHEIM ANGELS- I worked with a beautiful blonde who would break up with a different guy every coupla months causing women in the break room to lament her luckless plight. Today, of course, she’s married with two kids in a McMansion and I’m, well, here…showing the difference between being a beautiful blonde and a snarky, shut-in. The Angels are like the beautiful blonde of MLB. They signed Pujols and he wasn’t their savior. They picked up C.J. Wilson, but the staff still floundered. They signed Josh Hamilton and he faltered out of the box. Meanwhile they just kept getting asked out until Prince Charming in the forms of Mike Trout and Garrett Richards made things right. The bats are, overall, tops in the AL, but the pitching shows cracks. Wilson has struggled in 3 starts back from the DL, Jered Weaver’s ERA/FIP/HR% have been rising and his WAR dropping every year since 2011, Tyler Skaggs has been Tommy John-ed and it seems like a heavy load for Garrett Richards to carry in his first year as a full-time MLB starter. They did, however, fix the pen with the addition of Huston Street. If they can win the division they can get multiple starts per series out of Richards. If they can’t it may be tough counting on the others to get enough outs to give Mike Trout and the bats a shot.

4. KC ROYALS- I look at this team like I do Mila Kunis. I’d never throw the Royals outta bed, but from a distance I’m really not as impressed with them as some folks. Their recent hot streak has brought out the bandwagon jumpers, but we’re going to stay true to what we thought back in April. This is a good team with a top-notch pen, an above average staff and a lineup that’s a bit too Mike Moustakas-y/Raul Ibanez-y for our taste. It’s not that they can’t hit. They’re mid-pack in Runs Scored (AL), but they are dead last in HRs, 14^th in SLG% and only 13^th in OBA meaning they have to string together a lot of hits to score. Not always easy against the top pitching they’ll face in the playoffs.  Danny Duffy benefits from a .229 BABIP, Jason Vargas has been lucky on HR/FB%, James Shields has a 5.00 ERA in the playoffs, Yordano Ventura’s father was a hamster and Billy Butler smells of elderberries…alright were just nit-picking at this point (though I think the last one is true). We like this club, we do, but more as a WC…we’ll see.

5. BALTIMORE ORIOLES- I feel like if I look up TACITURN in the dictionary I’ll see a picture of Buck Showalter. Maybe we should just be happy he’s managing and not boring us to tears on the Baseball Tonight desk. In the end I sometimes see him as a modern-day Gene Mauch ready to over-analyze a good thing into disaster. Truthfully, though, that’s not the case. In fact the Buckster has done a super job keeping this thing churning through injuries to Machado, Wieters, Jimenez and now Hardy and Machado again. Not to mention masterfully patient work in piecing together a decent pen and uncovering a quality closer out of the previously mediocre meanderings of Zach Britton. As long as Hardy and Machado are OK this team can slug their way deep into the postseason behind Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones and Chris Davis. If they had one lights-out starter instead of a staff of competent Energy-efficient Bulbs we’d like ‘em more. But hey the party’s at Boog’s BBQ when they clinch the East!

For Boog's sake let's pray there's a defibrillator on site!

 

6. TAMPA BAY RAYS- Alas this club dug too deep a hole for themselves, but even without David Price they are still solid. A staff of Cobb/Archer/Odorizzi/Smyly and a returning Mike Moore should keep them in the thick of things next year. But since they’re unlikely to add anyone significant what they do with Ben Zobrist’s option, how Wil Myer’s returns and the emergence or lack thereof of prospects like Tim Beckham, Enny Romero, Alex Colome and Hak-Ju Lee (gesundheit!) will determine their fate. Hats off to Joe Maddon, MLBs version of Sisyphus.

7. SEATTLE MARINERS-I don’t think Robinson Cano is married, but now he knows what it’s like to be divorced! By moving from NY to Seattle there’s no more questioning his intensity, demanding he run out every groundball, worries about his leadership, asking if his friends are more important than they are…er…OK, maybe not that last one, but you get the point. His BA is up slightly, his SLG% is down due to Park Factors, but his OBA hovers around the exalted .400 mark. The latter is due in part to this lineup being mostly Cano & Seager & a Whole Lotta Meager. Adding Austin Jackson was nice in that it gives the negative-valued Endy Chavez more bench time and Mike Zunino has been a pleasant surprise behind the dish. That said the usually productive spots of DH/1B have been a black hole of Kendry Morales, Logan Morrison, Corey Hart and Justin Smoak who have combined for a -3.0 WAR (yes, they’ve lost 3 games in the standings just by trotting them out there). On the other hand there’s always King Felix every 5^th day and backed up by Hisashi Iwakuma and the surprising Chris Young it’s been enough to keep them in the WC hunt. If prospect Taijuan Walker weren’t getting spanked around at AAA (5.46 FIP) we might feel better about this club. As it is we think they’ll just miss out to whoever finishes 2^nd in the Central.

8. TORONTO BLUE JAYS-  The Jays are like the Angels chunky little sister. There’s not anything wrong with them per se, it’s just that they can’t match up to the immediate competition. So while the Angels were able to throw money around and protect their Farm System the Jays were forced to “try harder” and trade away their prospects to accelerate the process of contention. Thus while the Angels wound up with Pujols/Hamilton/Wilson with a Trout/Richards kicker, the Jays answered with Reyes/Dickey/Buehrle and a Munenori Kawasaki kicker. Mix Mark Buehrle’s predictable 2^nd half slide with injuries to Encarnacion/Lind/Lawrie and it’s been a struggle with little help to patch the holes. On the bright side young RHPs Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison look legit so if the lineup stays together 2015 could be another good year in Hockeyville.

9. NEW YORK YANKEES- If we learned one thing from the movie The 40 Year Old Virgin it’s that you “gotta use your peripherals!” In analytic terms that means looking past the standard numbers to the true talent of a pitcher while siphoning out as much luck, good or bad, as possible. Yankees GM Brian Cashman spotted Brandon McCarthy near the trade deadline and did just that. In Arizona McCarthy was 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA, but his K/BB was a solid 7.41/1.64, his FIP was 3.81 and he was being done in by an unsightly 1 HR Allowed per every 5 Flyballs. Since switching to pinstripes B-Mac (I’m assuming) is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA. Nice move by the Yankees, but they’ll still be sitting home in October.

10. CLEVELAND INDIANS- In 2012 then closer Chris Perez chastised Indians fans for not coming out in bigger numbers after a good early run for the Tribe.  As it turned out Cleveland lost 94 games that year proving that Wahoo fans are smart and Chris Perez should have spent less time on Twitter and more in finding out what his wife was putting into those funny smelling FEDEX packages. Since their last big run in 2007 Clevelanders have seen the same show from ownership. Spend just enough to be mildly competitive then close the purse strings and complain no one shows up. This year the Tribe came up with two bonafide studs in Corey Kluber and Michael Brantley. That pair plus Kipnis/Santana/Gomes/Chisenhall will keep the team at least break even, will ownership do what is necessary to really compete? Might be best to light up another Mrs. Perez Fatty and not think about it too much Northern Ohioans.

Well there's always Basketball season...

 

PLAYOFFS: Angels over Royals (WC Game), A’s over Tigers, Angels over O’s, A’s over Angels…World Series? Hey haven’t I done enough already…Nats/A’s…you decide.

As Tiny Purple Fishes Run Laughing Thru My Fingers (MLB Notes)

The NFL for lack of a better term is sexy. Now that it’s back with the start of preseason games MLB, despite its myriad of tight pennant races, takes a bit of a backseat.

To put it another way if the TV show Modern Family were a metaphor for sports MLB is Julie Bowen in something revealing and Sofia Vergara (NFL) just entered the scene. I guess this makes College Football the oldest daughter, but we can work out the logistics on that deal later…

Right now we want to trot out our thin and dirty (just how I like my women) version of the rest of the baseball season thru the World Series so we can kick off our indepth NFL/Fantasy coverage next week…So here’s what we got:

We’ll do this in a Power Rankings order then make our Playoff picks below…

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. LA DODGERS- Solid rotation at the top in Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu, but after that it’s shaky even if Josh Beckett comes back. The offense is the same way with Puig playing a less dominant Kershaw. Their best shot is to shake San Fran so as to set up Kershaw for the most possible usage, but with Ramirez and Beckett on the DL and Puig resting his back it could be dicey. They still win the West.

2. WASHINGTON NATIONALS- Same boat as the Dodgers. Nobody has an OPS over .837, but the Big 3 of J. Zimmerman/Strasburg/Fister is tough. Gio Gonzalez though has turned into a train wreck and Asdrubal Cabrera is no replacement for the bat of Ryan Zimmerman. Fortunately Atlanta has tanked at just the right time for these guys and ESPN now has them as having the best odds to make the playoffs in the NL.

3. MILWAUKEE BREWERS- Everything about this team screams solid, not spectacular. In the NL that’s good enough. I already picked them to win the Central and I’ll stick by it. There’s no Kershaw or Puig, but Jonathan Lucroy is the best guy a lot of folks never heard of at the toughest to fill position on the diamond. Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis have earned their Big League stripes and the staff does enough to get by. If K-Rod and the pen holds out nothing says we won’t see a replay of Harvey’s Wallbangers sans the Gorman Thomas moustache in October!

4. ATLANTA BRAVES- This is not your father’s Braves…in fact it’s fast becoming the Bizarro Braves where the back of the rotation is carrying a feeble offense with the help of a strong bullpen. It wasn’t supposed to be that way. The offense led by J. Upton/Freeman/Heyward/Gattis should better than 3^rd worst in the NL in Runs Scored. Bonifacio over B.J. Upton is kinda addition by subtraction, but doesn’t solve the problem of Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons dragging down the back end. If Teheran and Santana don’t wilt, 23 YO Alex Wood and Aaron Harang keep over-achieving and Bonifacio and the return of Gattis spark the lineup they could runoff a win streak to match the losing one they just came out of. A dangerous team, but we’ll stick with the more consistent Nats to win the East.

5. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS- Love the John Lackey move. Justin Masterson…uh…not so much. I always thought Masterson was a 2-pitch reliever type and now with less control than Courtney Love at an Open Bar he offers little, but it’s worth a shot for a team that’s had reclamation success before. Lackey shut down Milwaukee in his first start then got bombed by the Orioles. I think he’ll be good vs. the unfamiliar NL teams and if Michael Wacha and/or Yadier Molina can return the Red Birds could make a big final push.

A quick pallette cleanser and now for the…

 

6. PITTSBURGH PIRATES- This squadron could easily be as high as 4 or 5, but I just can’t believe in Vance Worley, Edison Volquez, Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton throwing meaningful October innings. Gerrit Cole is tearing up rehab and how he comes back will be critical. Oh yeah the Kirk Gibson drive by on Andrew McCutchen is troubling…especially when it forces Ike Davis into the cleanup spot…egads! Would’ve been nice to see Clint Hurdle and his staff get some help from management, but we all know how that goes on the banks of the Monongahela.

7-SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS- There’s Bumgarner/Hudson…Pence, Posey and Panda…otherwise everything else is falling apart by the Bay. But if Angel Pagan returns to form, if Ryan Vogelsong continues his 37 YO (who knew?) magic, if Brandon Belt gets healthy, if Adam “Lonesome Dove” Duvall provides a spark…well, if the Queen had balls she’d be King…but they are gritting it out and that’s something.

8. CINCINNATI REDS- Hey at least the Sabermetricians can’t blame Dusty Baker anymore. And maybe they were right since Bryan Price has done a marvelous job of keeping this club only 2.5 GB in the WC despite no Votto/Phillips and a middle relief crew shakier than a Yugo at 90 MPH. The key is a staff that is from top to bottom rock solid. That’s what has them with the best run differential in the NL after the Division leaders, but will it (plus Aroldis Chapman) be enough? Votto’s ESPN page is like Michelle Shocked’s new album…silent (http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/michelle-shocked-releases-silent-album-names-songs-after-music-execs-20140729) on a timetable for his return, Phillips is still 7-10 days away, Alfredo Simon has pitched in 5 straight losing efforts and they just lost a game to Brad Penny, looking like a poor man’s Rick Rueschel, in Miami. None of this bodes, as they say, well.

9. MIAMI MARLINS- As we said before just having Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez alone makes one a WC contender in the forgiving NL. When Fernandez returns next year and how they flesh out the back of the staff, the pen and the infield will be telling. Suffice it to say Jordany Valdespin is not the answer, but the NL East could be fun in 2015 because…

10. NY METS- Yes Virginia the Mets can contend. Even with their young ace out all year and the bullpen a guessing game they’ve managed to play to a zero run differential. Matt Harvey’s return (farther along than Fernandez) and help at SS, closer and an OF corner could make them very viable for not just a WC, but 1^st in the East next year…well, you know, barring something Mets-ian happening in the interim.

11. SD PADRES- San Diego is only 7 GB in the WC. San Diego signed and is liberally using Jeff Francouer in the middle of their lineup. As the lady used to say one-eighth of a second after we finished drunkenly ordering at the all-night White Castle, “Next Please!”

So we’re gonna go Wainwright over Teheran in the Play-in Game. Then Dodgers over Cardinals, Nats over Brewers, Nats over Dodgers, Nats to the World Series, but hey, I’m not married to it…AL next then Football!

Another Dreadful, Selfish Crime (NL Central Notes & More)

This week we handicap the jumbled NL Central race where 4 teams legitimately have a shot at the title. We’d also like to note we were correct about the Huston Street trade freeing up a trade of Chase Headley to the Yankees because, well, as my ex-wife always reminded me it doesn’t happen often. But first there’s this…

PEN PERUSALS: Last week we wrote about Anaheim’s acquisition of Huston Street, but practically every contender could use another good arm or two in the bullpen, none more than Detroit and Baltimore, so let’s look at the names being tossed around…Antonio “You Magnificent” Bastardo (Phi.)- This guy should be stocking up on potable water because Detroit seems to have him on their short list. Loved this guy when he came up, but today I’m not a buyer. His velocity has been like a Tom Petty encore lately…Free Fallin’…and he’s never had a BB/9 rate under 4.00. His standard numbers look good, but his BABIP is at .223 after topping .285 the last two seasons and at a 68.5% LOB Alan Hale, Jr. stranded more people. He is lefty though and the less innings Phil Coke gets the better. Still I think a nicer target might be Wesley Wright (Chi.)- the last time he allowed a run (5/23) there was peace in Gaza…you know, sort of…The problem is the Cubs have used him almost exclusively as a LOOGY meaning his ability vs. RH is questionable. Still with many games to go vs. the LH-heavy Indians he could be worth a look. James Russell (Chi.)- on the other hand we say is not. Also LH, Russell’s BB rate is up at 4.50/9 this year and his FIP has only seen the good side of 4.00 once in 5 years. He’s a sabermetric nightmare and the switch to the AL might just expose those flaws. Bringing us to Jonathan Papelbon (Phi.)- This guy’s velocity  numbers have taken a downward spiral of Amy Winehouse-ian proportions…4 MPH off both his fastball and splitter, a K/9 at a career low 7.81, but he keeps getting saves when Philly gives him the opportunity. Problem is he’s announced he’ll only accept a trade to a team that will use him exclusively as a closer. That means Detroit would have to jettison the Joe Nathan Project so Baltimore where Zach Britton has a dead fish-like grip on the role may be a possible destination. The sweetest plum of them all though might be Andrew Miller (Bos.)- it’s unsure the direction the Beantowners are taking, but word is they may dangle Miller for prospects (though dangling things for prospects has never worked very well for me). A former #6 overall pick that failed as a starter in Det./Mia. He’s become dominant in the pen since 2012 with a K/9 over 13.00 over that period. This year he’s at 14.54 K/9 with a 1.73 FIP. He could be an instant closer in the NL or a super setup man in say Anaheim…stay tuned.

Get ready Baltimore Paps may be dancing his way into your hearts!

 

RED SOX: A friend of friend played low Minor League ball with recently cut Red Sox C A.J. Pierzynski. Knowing his reputation as a self-centered jerk I asked the guy for his opinion of Pierzynski as a person to which he replied, “imagine the biggest A-Hole you ever met then multiply it by 10!” Of course Pierzynski was in his early 20s then and we all mellow over time. Heck, I haven’t dumped my empty White Castle boxes on someone’s lawn in years…ok, months, but that E-Harmony b-tch had it coming….and it looked like at 37 he was a good fit to replace Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Uh…not so…Pierzynski was released and afterward several Sox players complained he spent too much time on his cell phone even laughing and texting folks immediately after losses. Miraculously after A.J.’s departure Boston went 8-2 and closed the gap for the 2^nd Wild Card to 6.

Jon Lester has been lights out, John Lackey is always solid and most importantly Clay Bucholz has gone 2-1 with a 24/1 K/BB in his last 4 starts since changing the grip on his changeup (then screwed this article last night in Tor.). With Seattle struggling and the AL a paragon of parity beyond OAK/ANA/DET who knows. I’m not a believer in clubhouse chemistry and intangibles but could cutting out the A.J. Pierzynski cancer be this year version of the Bobby Valentine purge? Or point toward a 2015 rebound?

WHY? AWARD: This week’s award goes to Cub SP Tsuyoshi Wada who will be #5 in the rotation for the foreseeable future. The Orioles brought Wada over from Japan at 31 years old to, I assume, act as translator/caddy for Wei-Yei Chen. His last season in Japan he topped 90 on the radar gun exactly once and Baltimore promptly ditched him in Norfolk, Virginia and forgot about him. It’s not that Wada can’t win in the short term. In fact Fantasy-wise he’s not a bad pickup to junkball his way past the Padres/Phillies/Rockies of the world. The question is why leave youngsters like recently acquired Dan Straily (positive AL to NL move possibilities-see Jake Arrieta below) and Dallas Beeler in Iowa when the 33 yo Wada will be home sipping sake by the time the Cubs contend?

NL CENTRAL: In order of predicted finish…

Milwaukee- They’ve overcome their pre-ASG swoon to take back first and have just enough pitching it appears to get a potent offense to the finish line. Kyle Lohse and Yovani Gallardo are solid if unspectacular, but Matt Garza may be a concern. His K’s are at their lowest rate since his move to the NL and last week he lasted all of 1 out vs. Washington putting up a Bill James GameScore of 17 (114 is tops) and considering, that like filling out your name on the SATs, you get 20 points for just stepping on the mound that’s troubling. The key could be if Swingman Tyler Thornburg can return in August. That would send struggling prospect Jimmy Nelson to the minors, floundering Marco Estrada to the pen and give Milwaukee 5 arms that while not Wainwright-ian can, with their offense, get them a win every night.

Keg for a body, tap for a nose...a mascot the whole family can enjoy!

 

St.Louis- We had them right there with Mil. until the Yadier Molina injury. Now we have them right there with Pit. If Matt Holliday was having his usual year and/or prospect Oscar Taveras came out and toreit up we might be higher on them. As it is Adam Wainwright, Jeter-gate aside, and Lance Lynn are a formidable duo on top of this staff and Adams/Carpenter/Peralta keep the offense moving. Toss in the sudden improvement of young 2B Kolten “Don’t F*ck With The” Wong(s) and there’s still plenty of hope for the Division or a WC. How soon Yaddy and Fozzy Bear’s favorite player Michael Wacha can get back will determine how high they can fly.

Pittsburgh- On the one hand we’d like to see this small-market darling succeed. On the other hand there’s something about an ownership that lets it’s best pitcher (A.J. Burnett) and one of its best hitters (Marlon Byrd-.843 OPS after a deadline deal) walk away then bring in the replacement-level stylings of Edison Volquez and claim they’re committed to winning. That said all we have to add, and we can’t put this forcefully enough, is Gerrit Cole! If the former #1 overall pick comes back to the rotation next week, as planned, there’s hope that there’s just enough pitching, just enough hitting and just enough of Andrew McCutchen to get them back to the playoffs. Otherwise a staff of Morton/Locke/Volquez/Worley does not a World Series contender make.

Cincinnati- In the 1977 Burt Reynolds/Kris Kristofferson film Semi-Tough character Puddin Patterson as played by soon-to-be Magnum P.I. sidekick Roger E. Mosley says, “…when Santa Claus givin’ out presents Santa Claus wears a beard, but right now Santa Claus eatin’ ribs and Santa Claus don’t wear no beard when Santa Claus eatin’ ribs…and that’s what you need to know’about Santa Claus!” As for the Reds they have the best pitching top to bottom in the division, a killer closer in Aroldis Chapman and a stud at the plate in Todd Frazier, but Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips won’t return until late August the earliest, they’ve gone 2-8/L10 without them and are now 5.5 GB…and that’s what you need to know ‘bout the Reds!

Chicago Cubs- The Cubs are only the 3^rd worst team in baseball so like Carl Spackler said in Caddyshack about being granted total consciousness on his deathbed by the Dali Lama…”they got that going for ‘em”. Otherwise the Cubs are currently treading water and collecting prospects in hopes of a breakout in the near future. Some say that will be in 2015, but frankly we ain’t seein’ it. Yes the organization is doing the right thing, probably the only thing, they can do to turn this mess around, but it’s gonna take time. Looking at the organizational depth charts there’s plenty of top prospects, but few, particularly, on the pitching side who figure to hit the majors with any impact till 2016. 1B Anthony Rizzo, 2B Arismendy Alcantara, SS Starlin Castro and #1 prospects Addison Russell and Javier Baez portend a strong infield with something leftover. The OF, however, is a different story with most prospects 2 years away from the big time. Toss in that next year’s projected Ace is the poster child for the AL to NL success story Jake Arrieta (4.65/5.05/6.20 ERA in 3 full seasons in Bal., sub-2.80 ERA in 23 NL starts) and this is not exactly a team on the cusp. Wait til next, next year should be the cry in Cub-ville come this winter.

Comments are tolerated…so feel free to indulge…More MLB and maybe some NFL soon!

Pills in the Tip Jar, Blood on the Strings (MLB 2nd Half Notes)

It’s been a while, but we’re back with more left-of-center ramblings on the Dog Days of the Diamond. Some notes, some predictions, a dollop of stupidity that hopefully will help in your viewing enjoyment, gambling and Fantasy Finagling…

SARATOGA: First a quick shout-out to all those who participated in the annual Bowling Til It Hurts Saratoga Extravaganza/Drunken Brawl.  The SPA’s opening day was attended by the largest group of BTIH revelers to date and featured the usual grog-ing, gorging, gambling and gaping at the gaggles of gorgeous girls in attendance. Generally seeing a pretty woman at the race track is like seeing Democrats voting in a Mississippi Republican Primary…something’s wrong behind the scenes. Opening Day at Saratoga, however, is Derby Day done right with a relaxed atmosphere and bucolic setting that brings out the beauties and ,Hell, there’s just something about a Coors-swigging coed in a summer dress and six-inch heels that does this old heart good…plus I like the giant, floppy hats…like a cross between a Southern Matron and one of the Manson Girls…

Squeeky Fromme? Heck, I’d throw her a chop…

TRADES: We’ll have more on potential trades below, but the first big post-ASG trade hit Friday with closer Huston Street going to the Angels. I’m usually wary of players moving from the weaker NL to the AL, but Street did close (albeit less successfully) with Oakland to start his career. He also survived a stint in the thin air of Colorado and has saved a stellar 164 of 179 in the last 6 years so he should remain solid.

The side-winding Joe Smith moves back to a setup role and is immediate Fantasy fodder. As is Kevin Jepsen who appeared to be closer-in-waiting if Smith faltered. Meanwhile 37 yo Joaquin Benoit moves into the closer role in SD backed up by Dale Thayer and Kevin Quackenbush. Benoit saved 24 for Detroit in 2013 so he’ll be given the opportunity, but as things continue to go south in Friar-ville look for the 24 yo Quackenbush to perhaps be thrust into the role as Chef of the fu…er…Closer of the future.

As for further Roster/Fantasy implications from this trade only INF Taylor Lindsey, a #1 Prospect for both Baseball America and Prospectus, is of any immediate note. He’s been average in AAA, but could be pointing to a trade of 3B Chase Headley to a contender. Possible destinations of KC or the Yankees would boost his run producing capabilities while freeing him of offense numbing Petco Park. Stay tuned.

RYAN BRAUN: In Monty Python’s Sex Education skit school master John Cleese asks the students for a good way to stimulate intercourse to which a prep school lad replies, “…massaging the clitoris…” An exasperated Cleese screams, “What about a simple kiss…why must everyone go rushing headlong for the clitoris?!?” I feel the same way about HRs and PEDs. Everyone links the two inextricably, but this season has given us a perfect test case that shows the real underlying benefits of Performance Enhance-ables.

This season the supposedly clean Ryan Braun has missed nearly as many games (23) as he had in his previous 4 full seasons from 2009-12 (27). The true goal of steroids and other PEDs is not to necessarily create bulk, but to expedite recovery from injury or soreness. No doubt Ryan Braun is an excellent hitter and allowed to play a full season at near 100% the numbers will no doubt add up. In reality, however, a 162-game grind should yield highs and lows with nagging injuries or DL stints deflating numbers particularly as a player gets into his 30s.

Braun has suffered from back problems and other dings this season. His numbers are slightly deflated as one would expect and his days of 30+ steals (2010-11) are, like my hemorrhoids, all behind him now. Obviously this could be coincidental, but career arcs like that of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and others just don’t make sense no matter what kind of Workout Warriors they claim to be. From a Fantasy perspective be wary of Braun come the dog days of late August and September. On the wrong side of 30 and with the little injuries adding up he could be a candidate for a juice-less fade down the stretch.

THE WHY LIST: Like giving Matthew Perry another sitcom I often ask why certain players are hanging around on rosters long past any sense of usefulness. This week’s WHY Award is a tie between the Cubs Edwin Jackson and the right-hander formerly known as Fausto Carmona, Roberto Hernandez of the Phillies.

Jackson has “rebounded” from an 18 loss 2013 to go 5-10 with a well-fed 5.61 ERA. Meanwhile Hernandez is 4-8 while walking 4.6 per 9 IP and producing a -.1 WAR meaning any old Minor Leaguer you throw a dart at could be expected to do just as well. Both Philly and Chicago are long out of their races so if a bag of balls and a dented batting practice screen become available these guys should move. Otherwise the initials D.F.A appear to be in their very near future.

The Def Leppard Drummer Award: Handed out to relief pitcher with appearances above and beyond the call of duty is currently led by Arizona righty Brad Ziegler with 50 appearances to date. He’s succeeded as a setup man in both Phoenix and Oakland, can pitch every day and is tough on righties with a sidearm delivery. If Detroit hasn’t called about him yet somebody’s asleep at the phones…

Baseball Bookshelf: This week’s selection is Tight Pussy, Schmight Pussy; or Why I Like Loose Women by Jack Glasscock…Enjoy!

 

…and here’s Cristie Kerr accepting the trophy at the LPGA Jack Glasscock Invitational…Congrats!

NL EAST REPORT

2^nd half projections…

Washington: Once ATL C Evan Gattis returns from his rehab stint the Nats and the Braves are all in for the Division Title. Barring injury I’m giving the advantage to Washington whose staff is easily tops in the Division. Jordan Zimmerman will avoid the DL and start Tuesday at Colorado meaning the Big 4 of Zimmerman, Strasburg, Gonzalez and Fister is set for the final push. Tanner Roark at 9-6, 2.91 and under 2 BBs per 9 makes for a nice kicker on the river. Add in the Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Rafael Soriano bridge thru the 9^th and as long as the offense is adequate the ghosts of Goose Goslin and the Senators could very well be vanquished this year.

Atlanta: Dan Uggla’s gone, but unfortunately B.J. Upton (.216 BA, .619 OPS) lives on and bats leadoff for this squad. Combined with Chris Johnson’s and Aaron Harang’s contracts with devil apparently expiring this team has some cracks that Washington doesn’t. RHP Gavin Floyd hopes to be back, but anyone he replaces would make for a lateral move at best. And maybe it’s just me but something feels like ace Julio Teheran is gonna be draggin’ ass (it’s a technical term) down the stretch as he fast approaches a personal IP high. If only Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy hadn’t gone under the knife in Spring training…Damn You Tommy John! It should be close, but I see them hoping the NL Central beats each other up so they can take a nice Wild Card tuck by season’s end.

Marlins: Like an exotic dancer with an inner ear infection this group has fallen off the table losing 6 straight lately. That said I’m not buying the Mets whole big bag of crap either so those two should be close, battling it out a safe distance from the playoffs in September. Any team with Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton should be Wild Card eligible in the NL so 2015 could be their breakthrough year. Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez are 24 years old and already adequate to serve behind Fernandez along with Baseball Prospectus #1 prospect Andrew Heaney who dominated AA and should be back up in September.  Christian Yelich and Marcel Ozuna compliment Stanton well in the outfield so if infield and bullpen help emerges there’s a potentially bright future ahead…then again owner Jeffrey Loria is one giant douchebag so things could go either way.

TRADE NOTE: 3B Casey McGehee and his .386 OBA could bring in offers. He spent half a season with the Yankees in 2012 so they may be calling.

Mets: Closer Jennry Mejia announced yesterday that the Mets will march into the playoffs because “they believe in each other!” I think the Donner Party said the same thing about California. This is another eye on 2015 club. Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Zack Wheeler and Jacob DeGrom could make up an above-average to very good staff next year. As for top prospect Noah Syndergaard concerns about his lack of AAA success seem premature. He’s only 21 yo and though his ERA is 5.74 it appears to be inflated by an ungodly .383 BABIP (his FIP is only 4.10) and he’s striking out more than a batter per inning with only 2.79 BBs per 9. If the expected Bartolo Colon trade yields a SS or corner OF this team could be a Division contender next year, but it all hinges on Harvey.

Phillies: In High School our football team was described as “small, but slow”. For the Phightins’ the phrase might be they’re “old, but fading” and/or “inexperienced, but mediocre”. Rollins and Utley are soldiering on as best they can, but Ryan Howard is done. Marlon Byrd, Cliff Lee, Jonathon Papelbon and Cole Hamels are attractive trade chips and GM Ruben Amaro better get a good haul because the future here looks bleak. The next shit Dominic Brown gives will be his first while conversely Cody Asche, John Mayberry Jr., Cesar Hernandez and Cameron Rupp try hard but just don’t have the talent. The bullpen is a mess save for hard throwing Jake Diekman and after viewing several games I can say I see Ryne Sandberg as having a long career in the broadcast booth ahead of him. Of note is C Carlos Ruiz who comes off the Concussion DL shortly. He puts up adequate numbers and could be dangled in front of the Wieter-less Orioles for prospects…There’s work to be done!

Thanks for the read and look in soon for inanity!