QUICK HITS
--For those doing the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge please do not
nominate Jennifer Beals or Sissy Spacek as they are “grandfather-ed in” for Flashdance and Carrie respectively.
--I have turned down the FaceBook invitation I received to
ZUMBA tonight and instead will participate in GOOMBA where I eat a plate of
linguine, smoke a cigar and watch an episode of The Sopranos. All things considered I think I’ll feel better that
way.
--Making the MLB Playoffs with a negative run-differential
is kinda like picking up a hot girl with a huge cold sore on your lip…either
the competition is weak or you’ve got money. Lo and behold the Yankees are 2.5
GB for the 2nd WC with a -27 diff. Still a ways to go and the
Mariners/Tigers to leapfrog, but if you’re keeping score the last two teams to
accomplish such a feat were the 07 D-Backs and the 87 Twins; both of which fall
into the former of the categories.
NFL
This begins our Divisional breakdowns for the 2014 season.
Playoff predictions and such will, if you can stomach us long enough, come at
the end of the series. The cantankerous horse-racing writer Al Illytch once
replied to a reader who said that his handicapping books made the game look too
easy, “…it’s about how to win money what do you expect me to show you all my
f---ing losers!” In the same vein as an unpaid blogger don’t expect me to pick
all the favorites. Nonetheless we’ll start simple with the…
NFC WEST
1. SANFRANCISCO
49ERS: Over the last 9 years the Super Bowl winner has tended to be like a
guy on Viagra. They’ve eyed the prize, got all hot at the right time, shot
their proverbial load in the playoffs, and then dozed off for say 10-12 hours.
In fact half the SB winners over that time have missed the playoffs the
following season and only 1, Patriots (04 Champ) in 2005, managed to win a
playoff game.
San Fran., on the
other hand, is more a Cialis (or as I call it “the procrastinator’s Viagra”)
kinda team. They’ve been ready to take the big prize but, as they say in the
ads, “they’re waiting till the time is right”. The Niners have gone 36-11-1
over the last 3 seasons, but still haven’t bedded down the Lombardi Trophy and
that weekend at the Beach House is running out. We don’t know if they’ll take
it all, but folks are jumping off instead of on the bandwagon and that, plus
some Seattle regression, could spell good news by the Bay.
OFFENSE: STRENGTH-
Normally this would be the Offensive Line, but a new center and the holdout of
G Alex Boone is gonna hold us back. Joe Staley and Mike Iupati are strong on
the left side but from center out right it’s more of a crapshoot if Boone doesn’t
re-sign. That in mind we’ll say Receivers are the strong suit this year. 2013
was a lost year for Michael Crabtree, but 2012, some forget, was lights out
(85/1105/9). At TE Vernon Davis is just a step behind Jimmy Graham as the NFCs
best and add in the grittiness of Anquan Boldin and the usefulness of ex-Bill
Stevie Johnson and this group may not blow you completely away, but they’ll
more than get the job done.
WEAKNESS- Radio host Craig Carton refers to QB Colin
Kaepernick as “Copernicus” and so far this pre-season HC Jim Harbaugh has been
playing Pope Clement VII to his heresy under center. That is tolerating it for
now. Of course with Blaine Gabbert as backup he doesn’t have much choice.
Kaepernick wasn’t bad last year with a 21-8 ratio, but he needs to keep running
effectively (9 TDs in 23 starts) to supplement his efficiency. Hopefully
Harbaugh had the wraps on him so far this preseason otherwise he might go all
Pope Paul V on his ass if this offense stagnates (I promise no more theological
references).
Oh football sometimes I forget the many reasons I love you...but hey there's two right there...
DEFENSE: STRENGTH-
Despite word that studly Navarro Bowman will miss at least half the season we’ll
go Linebackers here. Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith are killers. Ahmad Brooks
was strong last year till a 5 game stretch to finish the year which may
indicate playing hurt. If he bounces back all Bowman replacement Michael
Wilhoite will have to do is be adequate to keep this unit at or near the top of
the NFL.
WEAKNESS- There isn’t really a glaring weakness on this side
of the ball, but the secondary has been shaky at times. The return of Chris
Culliver, who missed all of 2013, at CB may shore things up a bit. Up front the
loss of NT Glenn Dorsey isn’t great news, but as he only plays half the snaps
they should be able to find a rotation that works in the middle. In the end
though they’ll need one more good year out of 34 YO Justin Smith if they want
to fulfill their potential.
2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Like
a Camaro and Side 2 of Led Zeppelin IV in Fast
Times at Ridgemont High a QB and a strong defense can take you a long way
in the NFL. It worked out for Damone in the former and the Seahawks in the
latter, but can Seattle prolong the good time longer than Damone did in the
sack?
OFFENSE: STRENGTH-
In 2012 the Hawks had a dilemma not unlike that of Robert Barone in Everybody Loves Raymond after he
returned from Italy. Go with safe, standard choice at QB in Matt Flynn (read
Amy) or the sexy, unknown in Russell Wilson (read Stefania). Much like every
guy who watched those episodes while screaming at the TV Pete Carroll took a
chance and it has paid off handsomely. The former Wisconsin Badger (via NC
State) is more than just a game manager throwing for 26 TDs in each of his 2 seasons
while bumping his YPP into the magical 8.0+ range last season. If Marshawn
Lynch keeps pounding and Percy Harvin is healthy this could be a Top 4 NFC
offense which combined with this defense is tough to beat.
Just so you know Amy's real life husband was the show's producer otherwise it's a no-brainer.
WEAKNESS- I’ll say Guard as opposed to the whole O-Line.
Russell Okung (inj.) and Max Unger had down years in 2013, but they could
easily bounce back. The other 3 positions, especially guard are up in the air.
Pete Carroll went out of his way to praise James Carpenter and J.R. Sweezy
after PS Game 2, but it sounded like he was trying to convince himself more
than anyone else. Regardless both graded out poorly and Seattle won it all last
year so if they just don’t run in circles like those lineman in the old
Electronic Football games things should be fine.
DEFENSE: STRENGTH-
Secondary…yes you’ll be hearing more from Richard Sherman this year I’m sorry
to say. Safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas don’t get the credit they
deserve as Erin Andrews chases down Sherman for interviews, but their ability
to defend both the run and pass well has been huge.
WEAKNESS- Regression…DLs Brandon Mebane, Cliff Avril and
Tony McDaniel along with LB Bruce Irvin all appear to have over-achieved last
season. If more than one of them falls back and injuries hit the secondary or
pass rusher extraordinaire Michael Bennett this won’t be the complete shutdown
unit we saw in the SB. However, even if all that does happen they’ll still be
pretty damn good and making a repeat run come January.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS:
Famous horse author Andrew Beyer (read My
$50,000 Year at the Races it’s good for you) used the acronym MIHP for a
horse that accelerated but did not seem to gain any ground in the Past
Performances because the 2-3 horses ahead of him also made their moves at the
same time. He called this a Move Into Hot Pace and that’s exactly what this
club has been doing. The offense has made some strides filling in around Larry
Fitzgerald and the defense is Top 4 (if not 3) in the NFC. Problem is Seattle
and San Francisco have taken off like friggin’ rockets in that time, but the
gap may be closing.
OFFENSE: STRENGTH-
Since we all know about Fitzgerald I’ll call the strong point here 2nd
year RB Andre Ellington. A sixth rd. pick out of Clemson Ellington played only
414 snaps last year (out of 1105), but handled the ball 157 times for 1023
yards from scrimmage and 4 TDs. Extrapolated out over a whole season that would
be approximately (you’re not expecting me to pull out a calculator are you?)
2150 yds. and 10 TDs. Fantasy drafters move early.
WEAKNESS- Offensive Line and it’s not even close…In fact
this may be the worst line since comedian Doug Benson’s lady repellant, “My
penis died can I bury it in your ass…” LT Jared Veldheer is solid and returns
after missing two-thirds of 2013. C Lyle Sendlein is adequate and the promotion
of last year’s #7 overall pick Jonathan Cooper can only help. Problem is the
right-side rotation of Paul Fanaika, Bobby Massie and Bradley Sowell.
Fanaika/Sowell were equally miserable in run or pass blocking while Massie can
road grade, but has trouble with top pass rushers. They only have 5 combined
years of experience so improvement is possible, but the team might regret
letting vet Daryn Colledge escape to Miami.
DEFENSE: STRENGTH-
If John Abraham is healthy and performing, he and the vastly underrated Calais
Campbell could make the pass rush the strong point here. Otherwise the
secondary is tops led by CB Patrick Peterson and FS Tyrann Mathieu. If Antonio
Cromartie is motivated to erase the debacle of last year in New York this could
be a shutdown secondary. The problem is…
WEAKNESS- …Linebacker…John Abraham at 36 is long in the
tooth, Kevin Minter has played exactly 1 NFL snap (no kidding) and ex-Raider
(ugh) Matt Shaughnessy has a bright future as a special teamer ahead of him.
The real problem here though is the season long suspension of standout Darryl
Washington. This thrusts the fast fading, 34 YO Larry Foote into the equation
so there’s a name to look for in the injury reports very soon. Between the
D-Line and the D-Backs it may not matter much, but this is certainly a black
hole between those two strong units.
4. ST. LOUIS RAMS: Comedian
Patton Oswalt has pointed out that in many of Nick Nolte’s movies (48 Hours, North Dallas Forty) there comes a point where his character is
angry, disheveled and has had enough at which point he laments in a gravelly
voice, “oh Jeezus Christ…sonuvabitch…not again…” With his straggly gray beard,
mussed hair and unkempt look Rams HC Jeff Fisher looked and sounded like a Nick
Nolte doppelganger when he got news of QB Sam Bradford’s season ending knee
injury…”oh, Jeezus Christ…sonuvabitch…not again…” This squad was already sitting
at #4 on most writers NFC West predictions so I guess losing Bradford is kinda
like what Branch Rickey told Ralph Kiner when he advised him he was getting a
pay cut despite leading the league in homers. “we finished in last with you, we
can finish in last without you.”
Not Jeff Fisher...but maybe by the end of the season.
OFFENSE: STRENGTH-
Does it really matter much when you have your sights set on acquiring Mark
Sanchez to pilot your squad. We’ll throw a dart at the thing and say the
left-side of the line where former #1 overall Jake Long will line up next to
this year’s #2 overall Greg Robinson. Sadly there may be another #1 or #2
overall in the Rams near future.
WEAKNESS- See Mark Sanchez above.
DEFENSE: STRENGTH-
As bad as the offense has been it was expected to be better than this defense.
Still 4th year DE Robert Quinn had a breakthrough season in 2013
with 19 Sacks, 7 Forced Fumbles and 12 Tackles For Loss. He’s become the
building block that they had hoped Chris Long would be, but there’s not much
else here to recommend.
WEAKNESS- Back in the 80s I never would’ve said this, but
James Laurinaitis and this LB crew leaves something to be desired. I mean Road
Warrior Animal could still kick my ass, but at his age and with Hawk dead I
think I could outrun him. In actuality Laurinaitis and 2nd year man
Alec Ogletree are fair to middlin’ and the secondary may be much worse, but I
had that Road Warriors idea teed up so I went with it.
Probably the NFC East in the next day or two. Comment if you
like…
