Notes From A Bus Station Bathroom (NFC East)

QUICK HITS

--The big NFL/Fantasy news is that Browns WR Josh Gordon had his year-long suspension for a 2^nd pot violation upheld. To which Ravens RB and noted fiancée/wife beater Ray Rice (2 game suspension) responded,  “Now there’s a bad guy. I’d have to smack my girl around 7 more times to be as thuggish as that dude!”

 --The University of North Carolina football program has apparently been hit by a Hazing scandal. Reports are sketchy but it’s amazing how many of these incidents contain some form of sodomy against the victims. Psychologists say it is the Heterosexual Big Men On Campus way of protecting their turf, but wouldn’t you think if word got out they were jamming things up each other’s butts at Training Camp that every homosexual on campus would wanna go out for the team…Hey, I’m no Doctor…just musing…

--Finally we’ve been remiss in not acknowledging the death of classic Blues/Rock guitarist Johnny Winter who I believed passed from exposure after his girlfriend switched to 60 watt light bulbs…RIP.

 

Hey at least College Football's back!

 

 NFC EAST

1. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: This division is more offensive than Don Rickles playing Ellis Island. If there was one standout defense we’d lean that way, but things seem to go from the average (Giants) to the absurd (Cowboys) on that side of the ball so we’ll go with the top O and that appears to be the Iggles by a decent margin.

Offense: STRENGTH- RB/OL…For years now the Eagles have had a strong offensive foundation in LeSean McCoy in the backfield and the trio of Evan Mathis, Jason Peters and Todd Herremans up front. Unfortunately they were held back by Michael Vick’s penchant to give the ball up like it was samples at Costco. Philly finished 30/31 in turnover ratio in 2012/2011. A brutal combination combined with a defense that’s been trending downward for several years. Last year thanks to the insertion of Nick Foles at the helm the Eagles finished #4 in TO ratio and suddenly they’re back to the 10-6 team they were before. We view Foles’ 27-2 TD/INT numbers like we viewed David Garrard’s 18-3 stat for Jacksonville in 2007. He ain’t gonna do that again, but he ain’t gonna tank either (who was my grammar teacher anyhow?). McCoy and the line plus excellent TEs (Celek, Ertz) should keep this somewhat gimmicky offense afloat for another year.

 WEAKNESS- No doubt it’s at WR where Desean Jackson flew the nest for Washington taking with him 85/1332/9, all team leading numbers. Fantasy pyrite Jeremy Maclin returns, sticky fingered RB Darren Sproles slides in and Riley Cooper’s off a career year, but none of it replaces the true field-stretching talent that Jackson possessed. Gimmicks aren’t always bad. Face-painting worked for KISS, Ziggy Stardust scored for David Bowie and even DEVO got by wearing flower pots on their heads. But you gotta have talent and/or you gotta keep evolving or you’ll end up just a buncha barefoot neo-hippies in overalls with banjos and washboards like Dexy’s Midnight Runners. How creative Chip Kelly and Foles can get with this offense will determine if they can repeat in the East.

Defense:  STRENGTH- You could call this Trent Cole and a bunch of holes, but it’s probably not that bad. DLs Fletcher Cox and Cedric Thornton are serviceable and if LB DeMeco Ryans can bounce back from a tough 2013 the front 7 can hold its own…

 WEAKNESS- …the secondary, ah, not so much. The CBs are average, but Nate Allen and ex-Saint Malcolm Jenkins don’t inspire confidence at safety. With the number of quality receiving TEs growing this can be a problem; one that will be compounded if the pass rush of Cole suffers from age (31) or injury.

2. WASHINGTON REDSKINS: ...by a hair over the Giants and, yes, unlike Phil Simms I am saying (er, writing) that name…though I think this may be the first fight Native Americans win since Little Bighorn.

Offense: STRENGTH- Who’d have thought a team with this name would have such issues over a Wounded Knee…at least outside of South Dakota I mean. But that is the real issue here. In 2012 Robert Griffin had a 20-5 ratio and 7 rushing TDs. Then every fantasy owners arch enemy Mike Shanahan pushed him into that playoff game on a gimpy leg and it all went south with a 16-12 ratio and zero rush TDs last year. RG-Tri still posted an 82.2 QB Rate last year so it wasn’t a total debacle. If he can fall somewhere in between his first two seasons then along with RB Alfred Morris and TE Jordan Reed the ‘Skins have a nice young nucleus to build around. Reports from the preseason are decidedly mixed so we’ll see.

 

Speaking of Wounded Knee: Free Leonard Peltier...no, seriously, they didn't charge to use this picture...It's free Leonard Peltier...

 

WEAKNESS- Offensive Line…the scary part is that LT Trent Williams actually over-achieved in a 3-13 season so things could be worse up front. Losing standout C Will Montgomery is a big blow, but 4 of the 5 here were starters for the 2012 club that finished #4 in Total Offense so hope is alive.

Defense: STRENGTH- Brian Orakpo is the One-Man Riot Squad (quick, name that classic wrestler?) on this side of the ball, but this year gets help in the form of ex-Cowboy Jason Hatcher. The latter is a stud if healthy and looks good so far in preseason. Improving on last year’s 487 pts allowed won’t be difficult. How much they can improve will determine if this club has playoff legs.

WEAKNESS- Last year the DBs got toasted like Snoop Dogg on a Jamaican vacation…early and often! Deangelo Hall and Dave Amerson struggled at CB and while the latter may improve in his 2^nd year the former may be finished. FS Ryan Clark is a keeper, but the rest better hope Orakpo/Hatcher create pressure or they may wind up buttered and sliced vs. the better passing attacks.

NEW YORK GIANTS: I have these guys a lambs breath behind Washington and their fortunes pretty much depend on the same thing…QB and Defense. Since winning the Super Bowl the Gi’nts have gone a playoff-less 16-16, but a revamped offense and a healthy Jason Pierre-Paul are what they are counting on to boost them into January football this year.

Offense: STRENGTH- They say if you slip and fall and people laugh it’s a sign you’re still young. If you slip and fall and people immediately call for an ambulance that’s a sign you’re old. Eli Manning took quite a nasty tumble last year and while 33 isn’t old when you consider his brother Peyton we do feel some folks have their fingers on the 9 in 911 as regards the former Ole Miss Rebel. After 18 TDs vs. 27 INTs and a 69.4 QB Rate OC Kevin Gilbride was shown the door and former Green Bay assistant Ben McAdoo is in. He brings with him a short passing game approach and that’s good because…

WEAKNESS- Offensive Line…LT Will Beatty is off his worst year as a pro, RG Chris Snee retired, new addition John Jerry was let go from the Bully-Gate thin line of the Dolphins and quality pickup LG Geoff Schwartz (toe)  may have to start the season on IR. I haven’t seen things this bad in the trenches since my Lit. 101 Professor assigned All Quiet on the Western Front. On the bright side Schwartz may be OK, Beatty may bounce back and RT Justin Pugh may justify his #19 overall pick in his 2^nd year. Consensus is they better because if Eli goes down another 39 times like last year Tom Coughlin may join his son-in-law Snee as an ex-Giant next year.

Defense: STRENGTH- Everyone at the top of this division appears to have the same blueprint defensively…one standout and prayers for improvement from those around him. The Redskins have Orakpo, the Eagles have Cole and the Giants hope to rely on a healthy Jason Pierre-Paul. JPP was a monster in 2011-12, but slowed by injuries last year. If he’s all the way back and Matthias Kiwanuka rediscovers his pass rush groove that pair along with the solid addition of CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could put the defense head and shoulders above the rest of the division. With the top 3 here very close and so many question marks in Wash and Philly a stout dependable defense could be enough to vault the G-Men back into the playoffs.

WEAKNESS- Linebacker…LOLB Spencer Paysinger is like Dick Van Dyke’s ottoman-you forget it’s there till it screws you-but worse things could happen, MLB Jon Beason is a very old and beat up 29, ROLB Jameel McLain crapped out of Baltimore over the last two seasons and for top backup Mark Herzlich we have two words…Long Snapper (keep it in mind). Still overall this defense is solid, as long as they don’t have to cover up for another league worst 44 turnovers from the offense, and could get them to the top of probably the overall weakest division (along with the AFC South) in football.

DALLAS COWBOYS: Intellectual Bon Vivant Christopher Hitchens once remarked of the Rev. Jerry Falwell, Iif you gave him an enema you could bury him in a matchbox!” I often feel much the same way about Cowboys owner Jerry Jones. He has a big payroll to cover, a fancy stadium to fill and as GM he, as Bill Parcells put it, “bought the groceries” here so he’s always gonna paint this club as a Super Bowl contender…Ah, sorry, no.

Offense: STRENGTH- This is not the problem here. Even the once abysmal offense line has been shored up via the draft and kudos to GM J.J. on that. Late season lapses aside Tony Romo is a Tier 2 QB as the Fantasy folk would say and that’s pretty good. Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and DeMarco Murray are also upper end Fantasy relevant and this team will definitely put points on the board. So let’s move along to the more pressing concerns…

WEAKNESS- There’s a new rookie (Zach Martin) at RG, last year’s rookie lineman du jour LG Ronald Leary under-performed a bit and RT Doug Free could revert back to his basket case form of 2011-12, but overall this group is trending in the right direction. But just as pro golfers say you Drive for show, you Putt for dough in the NFL you Score for fantasy, you Defend for victory (what you were expecting Walt Whitman?) and that brings us to…

Defense: STRENGTH- Ah, we’ll get back to you…wait…what’s that MLB Sean Lee is out…never mind then, we’ll get back to you.

A little something to soften the blow...and now...

 

WEAKNESS- They finished 26^th in Points Allowed, but as a team were +8 in T.O. Differential which is trick that can only be pulled off by allowing over 6600 yds., good for worst in the NFL. NT Henry Melton’s return from injury helps, but it’s offset by losing Lee and the secondary was torched like Michael Jackson in a Pepsi commercial for nearly 4600 yds. and 33 TDs. This may not be the worst D in the NFL, but it’s definitely not good and it’s hard to win shootout after shootout…if you don’t believe us YouTube last year’s Detroit game for proof.

Back with more soon.

 

Notes From The Parts Unknown High School Reunion (NFC West)

QUICK HITS

--For those doing the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge please do not nominate Jennifer Beals or Sissy Spacek as they are “grandfather-ed in” for Flashdance and Carrie respectively.

--I have turned down the FaceBook invitation I received to ZUMBA tonight and instead will participate in GOOMBA where I eat a plate of linguine, smoke a cigar and watch an episode of The Sopranos. All things considered I think I’ll feel better that way.

--Making the MLB Playoffs with a negative run-differential is kinda like picking up a hot girl with a huge cold sore on your lip…either the competition is weak or you’ve got money. Lo and behold the Yankees are 2.5 GB for the 2^nd WC with a -27 diff. Still a ways to go and the Mariners/Tigers to leapfrog, but if you’re keeping score the last two teams to accomplish such a feat were the 07 D-Backs and the 87 Twins; both of which fall into the former of the categories.

NFL

This begins our Divisional breakdowns for the 2014 season. Playoff predictions and such will, if you can stomach us long enough, come at the end of the series. The cantankerous horse-racing writer Al Illytch once replied to a reader who said that his handicapping books made the game look too easy, “…it’s about how to win money what do you expect me to show you all my f---ing losers!” In the same vein as an unpaid blogger don’t expect me to pick all the favorites. Nonetheless we’ll start simple with the…

NFC WEST

1. SANFRANCISCO 49ERS: Over the last 9 years the Super Bowl winner has tended to be like a guy on Viagra. They’ve eyed the prize, got all hot at the right time, shot their proverbial load in the playoffs, and then dozed off for say 10-12 hours. In fact half the SB winners over that time have missed the playoffs the following season and only 1, Patriots (04 Champ) in 2005, managed to win a playoff game.

San Fran., on the other hand, is more a Cialis (or as I call it “the procrastinator’s Viagra”) kinda team. They’ve been ready to take the big prize but, as they say in the ads, “they’re waiting till the time is right”. The Niners have gone 36-11-1 over the last 3 seasons, but still haven’t bedded down the Lombardi Trophy and that weekend at the Beach House is running out. We don’t know if they’ll take it all, but folks are jumping off instead of on the bandwagon and that, plus some Seattle regression, could spell good news by the Bay.

OFFENSE: STRENGTH- Normally this would be the Offensive Line, but a new center and the holdout of G Alex Boone is gonna hold us back. Joe Staley and Mike Iupati are strong on the left side but from center out right it’s more of a crapshoot if Boone doesn’t re-sign. That in mind we’ll say Receivers are the strong suit this year. 2013 was a lost year for Michael Crabtree, but 2012, some forget, was lights out (85/1105/9). At TE Vernon Davis is just a step behind Jimmy Graham as the NFCs best and add in the grittiness of Anquan Boldin and the usefulness of ex-Bill Stevie Johnson and this group may not blow you completely away, but they’ll more than get the job done.

WEAKNESS- Radio host Craig Carton refers to QB Colin Kaepernick as “Copernicus” and so far this pre-season HC Jim Harbaugh has been playing Pope Clement VII to his heresy under center. That is tolerating it for now. Of course with Blaine Gabbert as backup he doesn’t have much choice. Kaepernick wasn’t bad last year with a 21-8 ratio, but he needs to keep running effectively (9 TDs in 23 starts) to supplement his efficiency. Hopefully Harbaugh had the wraps on him so far this preseason otherwise he might go all Pope Paul V on his ass if this offense stagnates (I promise no more theological references).

Oh football sometimes I forget the many reasons I love you...but hey there's two right there...

 

DEFENSE: STRENGTH- Despite word that studly Navarro Bowman will miss at least half the season we’ll go Linebackers here. Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith are killers. Ahmad Brooks was strong last year till a 5 game stretch to finish the year which may indicate playing hurt. If he bounces back all Bowman replacement Michael Wilhoite will have to do is be adequate to keep this unit at or near the top of the NFL.

WEAKNESS- There isn’t really a glaring weakness on this side of the ball, but the secondary has been shaky at times. The return of Chris Culliver, who missed all of 2013, at CB may shore things up a bit. Up front the loss of NT Glenn Dorsey isn’t great news, but as he only plays half the snaps they should be able to find a rotation that works in the middle. In the end though they’ll need one more good year out of 34 YO Justin Smith if they want to fulfill their potential.

2. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Like a Camaro and Side 2 of Led Zeppelin IV in Fast Times at Ridgemont High a QB and a strong defense can take you a long way in the NFL. It worked out for Damone in the former and the Seahawks in the latter, but can Seattle prolong the good time longer than Damone did in the sack?

OFFENSE: STRENGTH- In 2012 the Hawks had a dilemma not unlike that of Robert Barone in Everybody Loves Raymond after he returned from Italy. Go with safe, standard choice at QB in Matt Flynn (read Amy) or the sexy, unknown in Russell Wilson (read Stefania). Much like every guy who watched those episodes while screaming at the TV Pete Carroll took a chance and it has paid off handsomely. The former Wisconsin Badger (via NC State) is more than just a game manager throwing for 26 TDs in each of his 2 seasons while bumping his YPP into the magical 8.0+ range last season. If Marshawn Lynch keeps pounding and Percy Harvin is healthy this could be a Top 4 NFC offense which combined with this defense is tough to beat.

Just so you know Amy's real life husband was the show's producer otherwise it's a no-brainer.

 

WEAKNESS- I’ll say Guard as opposed to the whole O-Line. Russell Okung (inj.) and Max Unger had down years in 2013, but they could easily bounce back. The other 3 positions, especially guard are up in the air. Pete Carroll went out of his way to praise James Carpenter and J.R. Sweezy after PS Game 2, but it sounded like he was trying to convince himself more than anyone else. Regardless both graded out poorly and Seattle won it all last year so if they just don’t run in circles like those lineman in the old Electronic Football games things should be fine.

DEFENSE: STRENGTH- Secondary…yes you’ll be hearing more from Richard Sherman this year I’m sorry to say. Safeties Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas don’t get the credit they deserve as Erin Andrews chases down Sherman for interviews, but their ability to defend both the run and pass well has been huge.

WEAKNESS- Regression…DLs Brandon Mebane, Cliff Avril and Tony McDaniel along with LB Bruce Irvin all appear to have over-achieved last season. If more than one of them falls back and injuries hit the secondary or pass rusher extraordinaire Michael Bennett this won’t be the complete shutdown unit we saw in the SB. However, even if all that does happen they’ll still be pretty damn good and making a repeat run come January.

3. ARIZONA CARDINALS: Famous horse author Andrew Beyer (read My $50,000 Year at the Races it’s good for you) used the acronym MIHP for a horse that accelerated but did not seem to gain any ground in the Past Performances because the 2-3 horses ahead of him also made their moves at the same time. He called this a Move Into Hot Pace and that’s exactly what this club has been doing. The offense has made some strides filling in around Larry Fitzgerald and the defense is Top 4 (if not 3) in the NFC. Problem is Seattle and San Francisco have taken off like friggin’ rockets in that time, but the gap may be closing.

OFFENSE: STRENGTH- Since we all know about Fitzgerald I’ll call the strong point here 2^nd year RB Andre Ellington. A sixth rd. pick out of Clemson Ellington played only 414 snaps last year (out of 1105), but handled the ball 157 times for 1023 yards from scrimmage and 4 TDs. Extrapolated out over a whole season that would be approximately (you’re not expecting me to pull out a calculator are you?) 2150 yds. and 10 TDs. Fantasy drafters move early.

WEAKNESS- Offensive Line and it’s not even close…In fact this may be the worst line since comedian Doug Benson’s lady repellant, “My penis died can I bury it in your ass…” LT Jared Veldheer is solid and returns after missing two-thirds of 2013. C Lyle Sendlein is adequate and the promotion of last year’s #7 overall pick Jonathan Cooper can only help. Problem is the right-side rotation of Paul Fanaika, Bobby Massie and Bradley Sowell. Fanaika/Sowell were equally miserable in run or pass blocking while Massie can road grade, but has trouble with top pass rushers. They only have 5 combined years of experience so improvement is possible, but the team might regret letting vet Daryn Colledge escape to Miami.

DEFENSE: STRENGTH- If John Abraham is healthy and performing, he and the vastly underrated Calais Campbell could make the pass rush the strong point here. Otherwise the secondary is tops led by CB Patrick Peterson and FS Tyrann Mathieu. If Antonio Cromartie is motivated to erase the debacle of last year in New York this could be a shutdown secondary. The problem is…

WEAKNESS- …Linebacker…John Abraham at 36 is long in the tooth, Kevin Minter has played exactly 1 NFL snap (no kidding) and ex-Raider (ugh) Matt Shaughnessy has a bright future as a special teamer ahead of him. The real problem here though is the season long suspension of standout Darryl Washington. This thrusts the fast fading, 34 YO Larry Foote into the equation so there’s a name to look for in the injury reports very soon. Between the D-Line and the D-Backs it may not matter much, but this is certainly a black hole between those two strong units.

4. ST. LOUIS RAMS: Comedian Patton Oswalt has pointed out that in many of Nick Nolte’s movies (48 Hours, North Dallas Forty) there comes a point where his character is angry, disheveled and has had enough at which point he laments in a gravelly voice, “oh Jeezus Christ…sonuvabitch…not again…” With his straggly gray beard, mussed hair and unkempt look Rams HC Jeff Fisher looked and sounded like a Nick Nolte doppelganger when he got news of QB Sam Bradford’s season ending knee injury…”oh, Jeezus Christ…sonuvabitch…not again…” This squad was already sitting at #4 on most writers NFC West predictions so I guess losing Bradford is kinda like what Branch Rickey told Ralph Kiner when he advised him he was getting a pay cut despite leading the league in homers. “we finished in last with you, we can finish in last without you.”

Not Jeff Fisher...but maybe by the end of the season.

 

OFFENSE: STRENGTH- Does it really matter much when you have your sights set on acquiring Mark Sanchez to pilot your squad. We’ll throw a dart at the thing and say the left-side of the line where former #1 overall Jake Long will line up next to this year’s #2 overall Greg Robinson. Sadly there may be another #1 or #2 overall in the Rams near future.

WEAKNESS- See Mark Sanchez above.

DEFENSE: STRENGTH- As bad as the offense has been it was expected to be better than this defense. Still 4^th year DE Robert Quinn had a breakthrough season in 2013 with 19 Sacks, 7 Forced Fumbles and 12 Tackles For Loss. He’s become the building block that they had hoped Chris Long would be, but there’s not much else here to recommend.

WEAKNESS- Back in the 80s I never would’ve said this, but James Laurinaitis and this LB crew leaves something to be desired. I mean Road Warrior Animal could still kick my ass, but at his age and with Hawk dead I think I could outrun him. In actuality Laurinaitis and 2^nd year man Alec Ogletree are fair to middlin’ and the secondary may be much worse, but I had that Road Warriors idea teed up so I went with it.

 

Probably the NFC East in the next day or two. Comment if you like…

A Motel By The Water & A Quart Of Bombay Gin (AL Notes)

Is it just me or does this whole Ice Bucket Challenge thing sound like a nipple fetishist using people’s charitable nature to see girl’s in wet t-shirts?

In other news I know what with work, vacations, back-to-school shopping  you are busy people so as we did for the National League we have wrapped up the AL in a nice, neat package for you…and I gotta tell you, much like George Costanza’s imaginary addition on The Guggenheim, it really didn’t take that long…Enjoy!

AMERICAN LEAGUE (in power ranking order, playoffs below)

1. OAKLAND A’S- Without arguing specific examples on the whole a pitcher moving from the NL to the AL is kinda like the difference between picking up co-eds at the University of Vermont vs. the University of Texas. At the former the talent isn’t overwhelming and you can get by being quirky and cute; at the latter every chick can rake, so to speak, and you better bring the looks and a trust fund if you wanna make the cut. So when Oakland acquired Samardzjia and Hammel from the Cubs that was a solid move. When they acquired Jon Lester from Boston, however, they got a killer! He’s already 3-0 with a 1.98 FIP in 3 starts for them and he has 2 excellent playoff runs on his resume. The return of Josh Reddick has shored up the lineup and Josh Donaldson seems to be picking up the pace in August. Toss in the emergence of Sean Doolittle (12.65 K/9) as closer and some nice platoon pieces (Gomes, Jaso, Callaspo, Vogt) to balance the lineup and we believe they’ll hold off the Angels in the West.

2. DETROIT TIGERS- As the old LHP (loch-handed poet) Robert Burns wrote, “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men/Gang aft a-gley” which I believe is Scottish for “I burned the fuckin’ scones again!” The additions of David Price and Joakim Soria were supposed to make this staff unbeatable and rectify the bullpen respectively. Now Soria’s on the DL along with Anibal Sanchez, Justin Verlander has “multiple incidences of inflammation” in his shoulder and closer Joe Nathan is thinking of growing a Joba-esque beard so he can flip off fans with that under-the-chin gesture without drawing notice from the press. Where there’s Scherzer and Miggy there’s enough to get by, but if they don’t pull their scones out of the fire, in a manner of speaking, soon it will all be for waste.

Joey Nat keepin' it classy!

 

3. LA/ANAHEIM ANGELS- I worked with a beautiful blonde who would break up with a different guy every coupla months causing women in the break room to lament her luckless plight. Today, of course, she’s married with two kids in a McMansion and I’m, well, here…showing the difference between being a beautiful blonde and a snarky, shut-in. The Angels are like the beautiful blonde of MLB. They signed Pujols and he wasn’t their savior. They picked up C.J. Wilson, but the staff still floundered. They signed Josh Hamilton and he faltered out of the box. Meanwhile they just kept getting asked out until Prince Charming in the forms of Mike Trout and Garrett Richards made things right. The bats are, overall, tops in the AL, but the pitching shows cracks. Wilson has struggled in 3 starts back from the DL, Jered Weaver’s ERA/FIP/HR% have been rising and his WAR dropping every year since 2011, Tyler Skaggs has been Tommy John-ed and it seems like a heavy load for Garrett Richards to carry in his first year as a full-time MLB starter. They did, however, fix the pen with the addition of Huston Street. If they can win the division they can get multiple starts per series out of Richards. If they can’t it may be tough counting on the others to get enough outs to give Mike Trout and the bats a shot.

4. KC ROYALS- I look at this team like I do Mila Kunis. I’d never throw the Royals outta bed, but from a distance I’m really not as impressed with them as some folks. Their recent hot streak has brought out the bandwagon jumpers, but we’re going to stay true to what we thought back in April. This is a good team with a top-notch pen, an above average staff and a lineup that’s a bit too Mike Moustakas-y/Raul Ibanez-y for our taste. It’s not that they can’t hit. They’re mid-pack in Runs Scored (AL), but they are dead last in HRs, 14^th in SLG% and only 13^th in OBA meaning they have to string together a lot of hits to score. Not always easy against the top pitching they’ll face in the playoffs.  Danny Duffy benefits from a .229 BABIP, Jason Vargas has been lucky on HR/FB%, James Shields has a 5.00 ERA in the playoffs, Yordano Ventura’s father was a hamster and Billy Butler smells of elderberries…alright were just nit-picking at this point (though I think the last one is true). We like this club, we do, but more as a WC…we’ll see.

5. BALTIMORE ORIOLES- I feel like if I look up TACITURN in the dictionary I’ll see a picture of Buck Showalter. Maybe we should just be happy he’s managing and not boring us to tears on the Baseball Tonight desk. In the end I sometimes see him as a modern-day Gene Mauch ready to over-analyze a good thing into disaster. Truthfully, though, that’s not the case. In fact the Buckster has done a super job keeping this thing churning through injuries to Machado, Wieters, Jimenez and now Hardy and Machado again. Not to mention masterfully patient work in piecing together a decent pen and uncovering a quality closer out of the previously mediocre meanderings of Zach Britton. As long as Hardy and Machado are OK this team can slug their way deep into the postseason behind Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones and Chris Davis. If they had one lights-out starter instead of a staff of competent Energy-efficient Bulbs we’d like ‘em more. But hey the party’s at Boog’s BBQ when they clinch the East!

For Boog's sake let's pray there's a defibrillator on site!

 

6. TAMPA BAY RAYS- Alas this club dug too deep a hole for themselves, but even without David Price they are still solid. A staff of Cobb/Archer/Odorizzi/Smyly and a returning Mike Moore should keep them in the thick of things next year. But since they’re unlikely to add anyone significant what they do with Ben Zobrist’s option, how Wil Myer’s returns and the emergence or lack thereof of prospects like Tim Beckham, Enny Romero, Alex Colome and Hak-Ju Lee (gesundheit!) will determine their fate. Hats off to Joe Maddon, MLBs version of Sisyphus.

7. SEATTLE MARINERS-I don’t think Robinson Cano is married, but now he knows what it’s like to be divorced! By moving from NY to Seattle there’s no more questioning his intensity, demanding he run out every groundball, worries about his leadership, asking if his friends are more important than they are…er…OK, maybe not that last one, but you get the point. His BA is up slightly, his SLG% is down due to Park Factors, but his OBA hovers around the exalted .400 mark. The latter is due in part to this lineup being mostly Cano & Seager & a Whole Lotta Meager. Adding Austin Jackson was nice in that it gives the negative-valued Endy Chavez more bench time and Mike Zunino has been a pleasant surprise behind the dish. That said the usually productive spots of DH/1B have been a black hole of Kendry Morales, Logan Morrison, Corey Hart and Justin Smoak who have combined for a -3.0 WAR (yes, they’ve lost 3 games in the standings just by trotting them out there). On the other hand there’s always King Felix every 5^th day and backed up by Hisashi Iwakuma and the surprising Chris Young it’s been enough to keep them in the WC hunt. If prospect Taijuan Walker weren’t getting spanked around at AAA (5.46 FIP) we might feel better about this club. As it is we think they’ll just miss out to whoever finishes 2^nd in the Central.

8. TORONTO BLUE JAYS-  The Jays are like the Angels chunky little sister. There’s not anything wrong with them per se, it’s just that they can’t match up to the immediate competition. So while the Angels were able to throw money around and protect their Farm System the Jays were forced to “try harder” and trade away their prospects to accelerate the process of contention. Thus while the Angels wound up with Pujols/Hamilton/Wilson with a Trout/Richards kicker, the Jays answered with Reyes/Dickey/Buehrle and a Munenori Kawasaki kicker. Mix Mark Buehrle’s predictable 2^nd half slide with injuries to Encarnacion/Lind/Lawrie and it’s been a struggle with little help to patch the holes. On the bright side young RHPs Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison look legit so if the lineup stays together 2015 could be another good year in Hockeyville.

9. NEW YORK YANKEES- If we learned one thing from the movie The 40 Year Old Virgin it’s that you “gotta use your peripherals!” In analytic terms that means looking past the standard numbers to the true talent of a pitcher while siphoning out as much luck, good or bad, as possible. Yankees GM Brian Cashman spotted Brandon McCarthy near the trade deadline and did just that. In Arizona McCarthy was 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA, but his K/BB was a solid 7.41/1.64, his FIP was 3.81 and he was being done in by an unsightly 1 HR Allowed per every 5 Flyballs. Since switching to pinstripes B-Mac (I’m assuming) is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA. Nice move by the Yankees, but they’ll still be sitting home in October.

10. CLEVELAND INDIANS- In 2012 then closer Chris Perez chastised Indians fans for not coming out in bigger numbers after a good early run for the Tribe.  As it turned out Cleveland lost 94 games that year proving that Wahoo fans are smart and Chris Perez should have spent less time on Twitter and more in finding out what his wife was putting into those funny smelling FEDEX packages. Since their last big run in 2007 Clevelanders have seen the same show from ownership. Spend just enough to be mildly competitive then close the purse strings and complain no one shows up. This year the Tribe came up with two bonafide studs in Corey Kluber and Michael Brantley. That pair plus Kipnis/Santana/Gomes/Chisenhall will keep the team at least break even, will ownership do what is necessary to really compete? Might be best to light up another Mrs. Perez Fatty and not think about it too much Northern Ohioans.

Well there's always Basketball season...

 

PLAYOFFS: Angels over Royals (WC Game), A’s over Tigers, Angels over O’s, A’s over Angels…World Series? Hey haven’t I done enough already…Nats/A’s…you decide.

As Tiny Purple Fishes Run Laughing Thru My Fingers (MLB Notes)

The NFL for lack of a better term is sexy. Now that it’s back with the start of preseason games MLB, despite its myriad of tight pennant races, takes a bit of a backseat.

To put it another way if the TV show Modern Family were a metaphor for sports MLB is Julie Bowen in something revealing and Sofia Vergara (NFL) just entered the scene. I guess this makes College Football the oldest daughter, but we can work out the logistics on that deal later…

Right now we want to trot out our thin and dirty (just how I like my women) version of the rest of the baseball season thru the World Series so we can kick off our indepth NFL/Fantasy coverage next week…So here’s what we got:

We’ll do this in a Power Rankings order then make our Playoff picks below…

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. LA DODGERS- Solid rotation at the top in Kershaw/Greinke/Ryu, but after that it’s shaky even if Josh Beckett comes back. The offense is the same way with Puig playing a less dominant Kershaw. Their best shot is to shake San Fran so as to set up Kershaw for the most possible usage, but with Ramirez and Beckett on the DL and Puig resting his back it could be dicey. They still win the West.

2. WASHINGTON NATIONALS- Same boat as the Dodgers. Nobody has an OPS over .837, but the Big 3 of J. Zimmerman/Strasburg/Fister is tough. Gio Gonzalez though has turned into a train wreck and Asdrubal Cabrera is no replacement for the bat of Ryan Zimmerman. Fortunately Atlanta has tanked at just the right time for these guys and ESPN now has them as having the best odds to make the playoffs in the NL.

3. MILWAUKEE BREWERS- Everything about this team screams solid, not spectacular. In the NL that’s good enough. I already picked them to win the Central and I’ll stick by it. There’s no Kershaw or Puig, but Jonathan Lucroy is the best guy a lot of folks never heard of at the toughest to fill position on the diamond. Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis have earned their Big League stripes and the staff does enough to get by. If K-Rod and the pen holds out nothing says we won’t see a replay of Harvey’s Wallbangers sans the Gorman Thomas moustache in October!

4. ATLANTA BRAVES- This is not your father’s Braves…in fact it’s fast becoming the Bizarro Braves where the back of the rotation is carrying a feeble offense with the help of a strong bullpen. It wasn’t supposed to be that way. The offense led by J. Upton/Freeman/Heyward/Gattis should better than 3^rd worst in the NL in Runs Scored. Bonifacio over B.J. Upton is kinda addition by subtraction, but doesn’t solve the problem of Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons dragging down the back end. If Teheran and Santana don’t wilt, 23 YO Alex Wood and Aaron Harang keep over-achieving and Bonifacio and the return of Gattis spark the lineup they could runoff a win streak to match the losing one they just came out of. A dangerous team, but we’ll stick with the more consistent Nats to win the East.

5. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS- Love the John Lackey move. Justin Masterson…uh…not so much. I always thought Masterson was a 2-pitch reliever type and now with less control than Courtney Love at an Open Bar he offers little, but it’s worth a shot for a team that’s had reclamation success before. Lackey shut down Milwaukee in his first start then got bombed by the Orioles. I think he’ll be good vs. the unfamiliar NL teams and if Michael Wacha and/or Yadier Molina can return the Red Birds could make a big final push.

A quick pallette cleanser and now for the…

 

6. PITTSBURGH PIRATES- This squadron could easily be as high as 4 or 5, but I just can’t believe in Vance Worley, Edison Volquez, Jeff Locke and Charlie Morton throwing meaningful October innings. Gerrit Cole is tearing up rehab and how he comes back will be critical. Oh yeah the Kirk Gibson drive by on Andrew McCutchen is troubling…especially when it forces Ike Davis into the cleanup spot…egads! Would’ve been nice to see Clint Hurdle and his staff get some help from management, but we all know how that goes on the banks of the Monongahela.

7-SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS- There’s Bumgarner/Hudson…Pence, Posey and Panda…otherwise everything else is falling apart by the Bay. But if Angel Pagan returns to form, if Ryan Vogelsong continues his 37 YO (who knew?) magic, if Brandon Belt gets healthy, if Adam “Lonesome Dove” Duvall provides a spark…well, if the Queen had balls she’d be King…but they are gritting it out and that’s something.

8. CINCINNATI REDS- Hey at least the Sabermetricians can’t blame Dusty Baker anymore. And maybe they were right since Bryan Price has done a marvelous job of keeping this club only 2.5 GB in the WC despite no Votto/Phillips and a middle relief crew shakier than a Yugo at 90 MPH. The key is a staff that is from top to bottom rock solid. That’s what has them with the best run differential in the NL after the Division leaders, but will it (plus Aroldis Chapman) be enough? Votto’s ESPN page is like Michelle Shocked’s new album…silent (http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/michelle-shocked-releases-silent-album-names-songs-after-music-execs-20140729) on a timetable for his return, Phillips is still 7-10 days away, Alfredo Simon has pitched in 5 straight losing efforts and they just lost a game to Brad Penny, looking like a poor man’s Rick Rueschel, in Miami. None of this bodes, as they say, well.

9. MIAMI MARLINS- As we said before just having Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez alone makes one a WC contender in the forgiving NL. When Fernandez returns next year and how they flesh out the back of the staff, the pen and the infield will be telling. Suffice it to say Jordany Valdespin is not the answer, but the NL East could be fun in 2015 because…

10. NY METS- Yes Virginia the Mets can contend. Even with their young ace out all year and the bullpen a guessing game they’ve managed to play to a zero run differential. Matt Harvey’s return (farther along than Fernandez) and help at SS, closer and an OF corner could make them very viable for not just a WC, but 1^st in the East next year…well, you know, barring something Mets-ian happening in the interim.

11. SD PADRES- San Diego is only 7 GB in the WC. San Diego signed and is liberally using Jeff Francouer in the middle of their lineup. As the lady used to say one-eighth of a second after we finished drunkenly ordering at the all-night White Castle, “Next Please!”

So we’re gonna go Wainwright over Teheran in the Play-in Game. Then Dodgers over Cardinals, Nats over Brewers, Nats over Dodgers, Nats to the World Series, but hey, I’m not married to it…AL next then Football!