Saturday, January 29, 2011

Saturday Meanderings

    Who's pumped for the Pro Bowl!?!...yeah me neither. If I wanna see overpaid entertainers going through the motions I can always view my DVD boxed set of After M*A*S*H or the 2008 New York Yankee recap Waiting Out Giambi: The Darrell Rasner Story. In the meantime let's take care of some ancillary matters.

SELECTIONS RECORD

Sides: 8-2 (11-3 dating back to Bowl games)...Strange, after going 6 for our first 8 on the NFL Playoffs I was expecting to crash harder than Jimmy Buffett in Australia last week. Instead we drunkenly, inexplicably and with little or no effort stumbled into more success. Like Charlie Sheen without the chlamydia. I'm sure the Internet community breathlessly awaits our side selection on the Super Bowl, as for our total play well...

Totals: 3-7 (6-8 dating back to Bowl games)...not so much. We were correct on the G.B./Chi. total, but Pittsburgh once again saw their total go over proving that a top defense does not an Under make. In fact the key to most Under  plays is the ability to find teams that through defensive ability or offensive ineptitude find ways to turn TDs into FGs. Offenses in today's NFL will get their chances the key is to find those situations where, like the N.Y. Mets, team's are likely to do less with more.

Overall: 11-9 (17-11 dating back to Bowl games) That's a 110 unit profit on 100 units per wager for the NFL Playoffs and a 490 unit profit including Bowls. And they said that GED would never pay off!

    Finally we'll be wrapping this blog shortly after the Super Bowl. I'd like to offer thanks to each and every one of my loyal readers...and sadly with a Schlitz Party Ball and half a bag of Cheetos I probably could. Nonetheless MLB Spring Training begins in two weeks and we figure why not turn our sardonic eye on a business that offers us a plethora of punching bags from Bud Selig's hair to the Triple A squad masquerading as the Pittsburgh Pirates. If you have any ideas for the slant/theme of this effort, such that it will be, feel free to comment here anytime or reach out to us at tsha3217@gmail.com. Selections and miscellany will be up soon so be sure to check back and when the new blog opens we'll have the link right here. Enjoy the NHL All-Star game...it really sneaks up on you, right? See ya for Super Bowl XLV!

Sunday, January 23, 2011

Banefully, Beleagured Bets

NFL Playoff
Overall: 8-8
Sides: 6-2   Note: This goes to 9-3 if you include my Dumpster Baby aborted College Bowl selections.
Totals: 2-6

    In the "Moneyball" world of sabermetrics they call it "Regression to the Mean" or for those who can't recall their 7th grade math it's the reason a 20 HR-a-year guy like Raul Ibanez can jack 34 at age 37 then go back down to 16 (in 61 more ABs mind you) the very next year. Of course, a couple shots of Miguel Tejada's special "B-12" may have helped, but that's neither here nor there. As Dusty Rhodes once felt the need to remind Georgia Championship Wrestling fans, "there ain't a stee-roid runnin' through this body" (though it couldn't have hurt in trying to reduce that giant goiter on his stomach) and I similiarly am drug free- at least as far as the NJ Department of Education is concerned. That means I'm subject to the same "regression" that old Raul suffered in 2010 or in other words it may be time to jump on my Totals predictions and go against the Sides. You be the judge, but as always remember when you're daughter asks why she has to go to Community College don't curse my name and point to the Island of Curacao on a map.

Pittsburgh -4/38
    First let me say I'm getting a little tired of this "J-E-T-S" chant that's filling every watering hole in the tri-state area. If I want to be subjected to an Elementary spelling competition I'll turn on the Game Show Network and watch a plastic-faced Chuck Woolery and that big titted, too hot for porn, too skanky for Soap Operas bimbo host Lingo!. If you want a team cheer at least come up with something witty like the University of Texas cheer squad did when they used to play Rice University every year in the old "if you ain't cheatin', you ain't tryin'" Southwest Conference:
                
                           Texas Cheerleaders: "What comes out of a Chinaman's ass?"

                           Longhorn Fans: "Rice! Rice! Rice!"

Now that's a cheer. Nonetheless let's get to the real issue here- how will this game play out?
    As we mentioned before Rex Ryan is one of the cockiest coaches around which should come as no surprise considering he was hired by an owner named Woody Johnson (that's irony Alanis Morrisette, not a fly in your soup, that's just unfortunate). Confidence, brashness the ability to motivate a team to play beyond it's ability are great qualities in a coach, but attitude and pep talks can only take you so far past your talent level. So is today the day Rex's cockiness gets Lorena Bobbitt-ed? Sadly we think so (sorry Brian).
     Mike Tomlin may not be as colorful as the "John Kruk of the Toe Suck", but he can also coach up some D. In their November meeting the Steelers held the Jets to 276 total yards, outgained them by over 100 yards and that was without difference-maker Troy Polamalu who will play today. Additionally the Jets were not exactly Hawk and Animal (that's Road Warriors, I'm on a 1980's wrestling jag today) in the second half of the year. They should have lost back-to-back away games at lowly Cleveland and Detroit, then were demolished at New England. They righted the ship somewhat with the win in Pitt, but then were gashed for 38 points and three 25+ yard TD passes in the third quarter alone at Chicago.
    And that last point may be critical. The Bears have vertical threats in Johnny Knox and Devin Hester who hauled in those three TDs. The Colts "field stretcher" Pierre Garcon went for 117 yards in the Wild Card round, but the Patriots had no such option beyond the Methusalean Deion Branch. Pittsburgh, conversely, sports the perfect complement to cause trouble for the Jets in possesion man Hines Ward and full blown deep threat Mike Wallace. Add this to the fact that I'd much rather support Ben Roethlisberger than ride the Mark Sanchez rollercoaster (62.4 QB Rate vs. Ind., 127.3 vs. N.E.) in a big game. If the Steelers somewhat makeshift OL can play Viagra and keep Big Ben reasonably erect we like their chances against a Jet team that may have peaked for their Patriots grudge match. We'll call it STEELERS and UNDER-follow at your own risk.

Green Bay -3.5/42.5
    In the Bizarro Universe that is the parity of the NFL we have here a #6 seed on the road vs. a #2 and giving more than a FG. This is solely because the sports world at large has finally "discovered" Aaron Rodgers which creates a multi-dimensional dilemma in our thinking. Having had Rodgers on our Fantasy teams the last two years we adore him with the kind of love that's usually reserved for Rectories after Altar Boy practice. Still we hate to jump on a bandwagon because they tend to overturn with the fat, zit-faced tuba player usually landing right on top of us- metaphorically speaking. We would also love the under in Lock of the Year fashion if it weren't for that 10-3 game that might have the public leaning that way today.
    So to hell with it all. Like John Prine's protagonist in "Often is a Word I Seldom Use", I literally am "cold and tired and can't stop coughing" (damn those mucus-addled students) so I'm gonna say PACKERS and UNDER hoping that Vegas will balance the books and the aforementioned regression will rear its ugly head after the Over went 4-0 in last week's contests. Eat, drink and be nauseous- Enjoy the games!

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Rex Ryan's All-Foot Fetish Squad- The Defense

If you're dropping by here for the rapier wit or, more likely, the Jennifer Walcott pics let us first say thanks and add that the Offense version is available in the previous post. Also we have old school wrestling profiles under the "Crimson Mask" and "Seminal Slut" titles as well as Mets joshing and news, notes and handicapping advice from the 2011 NFL/CFB seasons at the top of the blog. Stupid, low brow, semi-erotic...no need to thank us, this is what we do.

    Before I conclude this Saturday night like so many before- cursing Andy Samberg amidst the rubble of Meisterbrau empties then falling asleep with my hand down my pants to the Shortcut to Internet Millions infomercial like a drunken Al Bundy I believe I owe you the defense edition of Wes Welker's Rex Ryan All-Stars. Enjoy!

DE: Lester Archambeau (Atl./'90-00)- From nearby Mount Olive, New Jersey which always reminds of the joke, "Last time I went to Mount Olive...Popeye kicked the crap outta me!" I'm a simple man, really.

DT: Dan Footman (Ind./'93-98)- Had 10.5 sacks in 10 starts in '97 then played only 3 more games in the NFL due to injuries (apparently he wouldn't take "the needle" like Delma in North Dallas Forty). His player comp at Pro Football Reference is listed as Ebenezer Ekuban, a name that always makes me wonder why people in the 1800s felt the need to wear floppy, tasseled hats to bed?

DT: Loren Toews (Pit./'73-83)- Daughter owns independent label Lujo Records home to such bands as The Dark Romantics (wasn't one Romantics enough), Baby Teeth, The Out Circuit and Mouse Fire, who has been billed by the S.F. Chronicle as "a throwback to Air Supply"- a statement that has now officially replaced "at least you have your health" under the definition of "Damned By Faint Praise".

DE: Matt Toeaina (Chi./Current)- One of the seemingly inordinate number of Samoans involved in either Professional Football or Wrestling. No word on whether he's given a "Rikishi Stinkface" to any opponents yet.

LB: Larry Foote (Pit./Current)- Functional, steady, boring as all hell. Katie Holmes without the Scientology.

LB: Joe Pawelek (Sea./Current)- Academic All-American at Baylor who was lucky to just miss the Kevin Steele coaching era there. Steele is most remembered as the DL coach of the Panthers that Kevin Greene choked during a Nationally televised game, but he also committed a coaching blunder so egregious it makes Herman Edwards look like a Clock Management Maestro. In his first game at Baylor and needing simply to have his QB take a knee at the opponents 2 yard line to win the game Steele called timeout pulled his entire offense to the sideline and announced that under his tutelage Baylor didn't take a knee. Cue the Joe Pisarcik fumble and 98 yards later Steele was 0-1 on his way to 9-36 in 3 seasons. Nice job tough guy (http://espn.go.com/page2/s/list/worstdecisions.html).

LB: Na'il Diggs (St.L./Current)- Truthfully I got nothing here, but the apostrophe in the first name is a nice touch. I mean it's no tilde, German umlaut or slash through the "o" like in Soren Kierkegaard, but you take what you can get.

CB: Jacob Lacey (Ind./Current)- Apparently planned his interception return TD dance as a kid, got his chance second game in courtesy of Marc Bulger...and was promptly penalized for excessive celebration and benched by Jim Caldwell. Which reminds us that next year in the NCAA excessive celebrations after scores will result in a 15 yard penalty from the previous spot thereby nullifying the TD. I see a record breaking Steve Spurrier visor toss in there somewhere.

CB: Ashton Youboty (Buf./Current)- One of 4 current players born in Liberia. Who knew? Established in 1821 by the the Henry Clay founded American Colonazition Society on the premise that freed black slaves would have a greater chance at freedom and prosperity there. Today Liberians are fresh off nearly 30 years of Civil War and 85% of the population live on $1.25 or less a day. Or as the "Great Compromiser's" family recently announced in a press release, "Our bad."

SS: John Booty (Phi./'88-95)- Drafted out of TCU in the 10th round which harkens back to the days when the NFL draft was held in the backroom of some gin mill with no Combine, computers or even comprehensive knowledge of the players available leading teams to draft the likes of Andre the Giant (Washington Redskins) or Bruce Jenner (L.A. Rams) in some Old Grandad inspired moment of inspiration. Good times!

FS: Adam Archuleta (St.L./'01-07)- Poster child for what the ESPN talking heads have wrought on common sense. Archuleta was a workout warrior and big hitter drafted 20th overall in 2001. His occasional bone jarring tackles were repeated ad nauseum on shows like NFL Live while the fact he couldn't cover "Smoke on the Water" with a year of guitar lessons went completely unmentioned. The idea is to make Big Plays not Big Hits, but Big Hits sell so we are constantly subjected to the idea that Mark Kelso, "the other" Roy Williams and their like were stars. Archuleta cashed in on this misguided theory of talent in 2006 when Washington made him the highest paid Safety in the game. He lasted one season and brought back a 6th round pick from the Bears in a deal not unlike Felix and Oscar trading the cash for a lifetime supply of canned squid on the Monte Hall Odd Couple episode. He recently crapped out in a tryout with the Raiders, but on the bright side he married Playboy's Miss August 2001, Jennifer Walcott. According to the Playmate website (which I blame for this post being so late) Ms. Walcott dreamed of becoming a vet and poet as a child. She opted for implants out of High School, little Fido be damned, but she has released a book of her poetry though we assume by these photos that Charles Bukowski she's not...
Who needs Walt Whitman..."Leaves of Grass", my ass!

Saturday/Sunday Serendipitous Schedule

    Wes Welker's Rex Ryan All-Star Defense this afternoon (sorry for the delay, functional alcoholism happens). Plus check back Sunday for selections...We're 6-2 on sides and 9-3 that way going back to our Bowl Picks. Totals, on the other hand, have been more Sammy Hagar than David Lee Roth Van Halen going 2-6. This week though the ledgers may begin to balance and with all 4 games going Over last week (lay down Shonn Greene...no not in the End Zone, at the 5, idiot) and me having a warm defensive feeling in my gut...kinda like I just had a bowl of Wheatina...we could be looking at a Cobra Clutch meets Brain Claw meets Sharpshooter meets Figure Four Leg LOCK OF THE YEAR. Then again it could just be gas. Come back later and tomorrow to find out!

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Wes Welker's Rex Ryan All-Stars

Inspired by the tongue-in-cheek press conference that got Wes Welker suspended for the 1st Quarter of Sunday's Divisional Playoff game (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WCb17psf8A) we present a Foot Fetishists All-Pro team. Feel free to add your own ideas in the comment section. And now after a little intro music from Little Feat...here's the Rex Ryan All-Stars:

QB Archie Manning (NO/'71-84)- Peyton and Eli's daddy was a quality QB stuck on bad teams in the early years of the Saints franchise. In his 10+ seasons in the Big Easy his teams never posted a winning record. Not to mention he was never blessed with a Hakeem Nicks or Reggie Wayne to throw to. His best receiver being possession man Danny Abramowicz whose career was curtailed after suffering a severe concussion from running into a sideline TV camera which in the 1970s were approximately the size of the Space Shuttle.

QB Heath Shuler (WAS/'94-97)- Namesake of my still in the embryonic stage "Heath Shuler Theory" which states that if no quality QB enters the draft one will be made up to fill the void. Think Alex Smith 2005 here. Problem is teams at the top of the draft need QBs as the Redskins did in 1994 when they jettisoned aging Mark Rypien and his 56.3 QB Rate. This meant the team had to draft a signal caller or turn the offense over to some woman named Cary Conklin (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/ConkCa00.htm). Choosing to bypass the aforementioned Ms. Conklin the top prospect was the unpalatable Trent Dilfer and no other QB had better than a 4th round grade so Heath Shuler who had a big senior year after a mediocre junior campaign became the Mel Kiper keeper and, well, the rest is a blur of mediocrity and the rise of Gus Frerotte...'nuff said.

QB R.J. Archer (MIN/Current)- From Kansas Weselyan who I believe go by the nickname The Disease-riddled Prarie Dogs.

RB LaBrandon Toefield (JAX/'03-07)- Put in 5 solid seasons backing up Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew while throwing 2 passes to the un-Heath Shuler-like tune of a 95.8 QB Rate.

RB Jim Kiick (MIA/'68-77)- Part of the "Butch Cassidy and Sundance Kid" backfield with Larry Csonka. Famous for being caught one minute late for curfew in training camp only to turn around and head back to the bars telling Don Shula, "if I'm gonna get fined I'm gettin' my money's worth!" Jumped to rival World Football League for an anticipated big payday in 1975 only to see the league fold twelve weeks into the season. But hey those two "i"s make it a fun name to look at. Who remembers Larry Biittner?...Cincinnati Reds?...anybody?...I didn't think so.

RB Paddy Driscoll (HOF)- Hall of Famer who played for both Chicago teams (Bears and Cardinals) in the 1920's and was named All-Pro 7 times by Collyers Magazine issues of which I believe are still on the coffee table at my Grandmother's house (I enjoy the serialized Fitzgerald).

WR Devin Aromashodu (CHI/Current)- This is my favorite. Led the Bears in targets, receptions and yards Week 1. Benched Week 2. Such was my Fantasy season.

WR Flipper Anderson (RAMS/'88-97)- Three 900 yard seasons, twice led the league in yards per catch, real name Willie Lee...I hate friggin' "Fun Facts".

WR Pinky Lester (PROV/'26)- Played one season for the Providence Steamrollers as 160 pound Tackle. No relation to Fonzie's Demolition Derby partner.

TE Ben Hartsock (NYJ/Current)- How could Rexy not acquire this guy from Atlanta as soon as he got the job in 2009.

C Chris Foote (NYG/'80-90)- 10 years, 104 games, 8 starts, 2 seasons of Scott Brunner's hands up your crack, priceless.

G Socko Wiethe (DET/'39-42)- Later formed a tag team with Mick Foley/Mankind in the WWE.

G Jamie Nails (BUF '97-03)- Entered the league at 20, weighing 335 pounds. Ate his way out at 26, weighing 360...the Nell Carter of the NFL.

T Jordan Gross (CAR/Current)- Two-time Pro Bowler. Credited with 4 tackles in 9 games in 2009 which should tell you what kinda season Jake Delhomme had.

T Joe Reitz (IND/Current)- Alright, I couldn't find another Tackle, but I came across this guy who reminded me of my favorite banner ever at a sporting event. In the late 70s the baseball Cardinals had a 3B named Ken Reitz who was greeted during his first trip to the plate at Wrigley Field with a 40 foot sheet beyond the LF wall simply emblazoned  "REITZ EATS". Funny cause it's true.

DEFENSE UP TOMORROW AND WILL INCLUDE RECENT NFLer MARRIED TO A PLAYBOY MODEL...PICTURES? ALL THAT GOOGLE BLOGGER WILL ALLOW!

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Garishly, Gin-Soaked Guesses

Considering last night with my colleagues featured many pints of St. James Gate's finest, a button-fly jeans snafu (the last thing I need after 11 beers is a restroom dexterity test) and the apparent karaoke-ing of "It's Raining Men" to win a bet (or at least I hope that's how those miscelleneous fives got in my pocket) I am going to keep this mercifully short.

Overall: 6-6
Sides: 4-2
Totals: 2-4

Chicago -10/43
    The Seahawks have become like every debut, popular reality show. Matt Hasselbeck is the everyman turned star, Marshawn Lynch's Saints crushing run has gone viral and even sparked a Sporcle trivia game (http://www.sporcle.com/games/Eric92/beastmode) and the bandwagon's filling up faster than the last plane out of Tunis. But like most reality shows the bloom leaves the rose pretty quickly. We're thinking Joe Millionaire 2 here (yes, they really found 20 more women to fall for that). So with that in mind we're going to make one intrepid stab at sanity and say a 7-9 team will not host a Conference Championship and take CHICAGO and UNDER.

New England -9/44
    The Pats are like the original Law & Order of the NFL. Angie Harmon is replaced by that Nazi blonde and an assortment of non-descript brunettes, Jerry Orbach dies, Benjamin Bratt is off to the straight-to-video movie world, but still they keep chugging along. Brady/Belichick are like the Sam Waterson glue holding it all together while Welker, Wilfork, Branch, Mankins, Gostkowski and assorted other bit players are the rotating array of co-workers, bystanders and witnesses who can't seem to stop unloading that truck or signing requisitions while the detectives probe them about the homicide (it's a friggin' murder put down the pricing gun for a second and answer the questions). That said I just can't buy this squad as that dominant. No Randy Moss to spread the field, an adequate, but uninspiring run game and a well coached, but not overly talented defense do not a blowout make...or at least we're thinking that way. Add to it that the 45-3 drubbing on national TV a few weeks back puts us on the contrarian side and we'll take a shot with Footsie McRyan and the boys. How's JETS and UNDER sound (yeah, I'm not so sure either). Best of luck.
"Take an inch off the back and give me the Cousin It up front"

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Warily Waggish Wagers

    First off let me reiterate my weekly disclaimer that these selections are based on the most cursory perusal of pertinent details since it was decided to give Emeril a sitcom. Nonetheless I'll throw out the crap I've come up with and hope for the best...kinda like Jimmy Fallon does every night. Here goes...

Pittsburgh -3/37
    This one looks harder than trying to remember all the new Zodiac dates. I mean I just figured out the Terrorist Threat Level colors and now this! Last week Baltimore blew out the Chiefs which has probably inflated their value. This week they won't likely be the beneficiaries of 5 turnovers (Pit. was +14 this year) or the worst aerial attack since the Egyptians in the Six Day War. Roethlisberger may be the poor man's Tom Brady, but that's miles better than Matt Cassel plus add in WR Mike Wallace, who had a 1200 yard breakout year, along with Hines Ward and this is a unit that will put much more pressure on the Ravens secondary than K.C and waiver wire fodder like Kevin Curtis did. We don't figure either team to run well, but Pittsburgh's O-Line has been steadier this year than Baltimore's which seemed to regress after a dominating 2009. The key for the Steelers will be controlling LB Terrell Suggs who beat on Roethlisberger like he was Meredith Baxter in a Lifetime Original Movie back in their December matchup.We think they will and in the least surprising revelation since we found out Brett Favre has a sister who's into Meth and spells "Brandy" with an "i" we think it will be low scoring. That means PITTSBURGH and UNDER...good luck!

Atlanta -1.5/44
    Like Valerie Bertinelli's marriage to Eddie Van Halen there's something about the Falcons we just don't get. Roddy White is great, Matt Ryan is developing on pace and the defense is improved still it doesn't seem to add up to 13-3 dominance. From 2009 to 2010 Atlanta improved by close to 50 points in both points scored and points allowed. Part of that is due to maturation on offense and the addition of CB Dunta Robinson on defense, but part is also due to a schedule that went from one of the toughest in the NFC to one of of the softest courtesy of drawing the NFC West this year. In 4 games against the West and two against Carolina the Dirty Birds allowed 12.7 ppg. In their 10 other games they gave up 21.2 ppg and were gashed for 418 yards at home against the Pack in November. Some of this may be statistical b.s., but we prefer a team that has consolidated its gains over the course of multiple years. The Packers have done that producing back-to-back seasons of 380+ points for and <300 points against (I always like using the  "less than" sign in real life, although the officer that pulled me over for speeding didn't quite appreciate the humor in my hand gesture). They also have Donald Driver back for this one (injured in November), as well as the benefit of an improved run game courtesy of James Starks. Plus we like what Aaron Rodgers is doing and if his line can control the pass rush of John Abraham we like his chances. We'll call it PACKERS and OVER figuring if Atlanta does run out and hide Green Bay will still get its garbage points.
   I know it's college football, but all I can think is, "her parents must be so proud."

Picks To Come

Today's intrepid selections up early this afternoon plus I interview Cooter from The Dukes of Hazzard. Back later.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

What We Saw...WC Recaps

K.C-BAL.:
PLAY: Ravens -3/ Over 40.5 1ST QUARTER Ravens go 13 plays to the 1. Flacco fumbles, run game non-existent. Chiefs look like AFC version of Seahawks, but hold for FG...KC 3 and out, Ravens driving till Flacco fumbles...Jamaal Charles is the real deal, Top 5 Fantasy pick real, 41 yards for TD- best player/worst supporting cast since Larry Bird took Indiana State to the NCAA Final...TJ Houhmanzadeh sighting for 28, but Ravens bog down, forced into an "over-killing" punt from opponents 40...2ND QUARTER: Charles for 11, Charles for 8, Charles for 9, forget Larry Bird this is a David Robinson at Navy kinda one man show...Charles fumbles, both teams trade punts from opponents territory in what has become the football version of the 4 corners offense...Flacco to Rice for a 9 yard TD with 19 seconds and the Ravens/Over parlay has new life...halftime...3RD QUARTER Nakamura (wasn't that the second city hit by the A-bomb) intercepts Cassel, loses lateral, KC recovers and the Over goes back into hiding...4th and 1, Charles loses 4, colorman Mayock tells us "penetration is the key to stopping the run game", no sh*t...Cundiff 29 yd. FG, KC fumble, Cundiff 29 yd. FG, KC int., Flacco to Boldin TD, Ravens 23-7- it's over, but it's not OVER so we'll stick around...4TH QUARTER: Cassel has to pass, but is having as much success finding Bowe as I do with the toothbrush in the tree in Highlights magazine...Cassel to his #2 WR Kevin Curtis. Kevin "Freakin" Curtis? Dear God what an Under...Ravens go on longer march than Mao, kill 10:20 off clock before McGahee from 25 for TD...We need KC TD for the parlay, Cassel sacked, Cassel incomplete, Cassel sacked, punt- sounds about right...Ravens 30  KC 7.
FINAL THOUGHTS: KC was better than the Seahawks and playing at an equally advantageous home field which should tell you all you need to know about the dominance of the best in the AFC over the best in the NFC...The Ravens running game is like the thong drawer in Rosie O'Donnell's dresser, it doesn't exist. Forget the numbers, most of that was piled up late when the KC defense was on the field constantly and Baltimore had put up a near 2:1 advantage in plays run...Not gonna happen against Pittsburgh and James Harrison's gonna be on Flacco like Jerry Lee Lewis on a cousin. Baltimore's defense better show up big at Heinz Field.

SEA.-N.O.:
NOTE: Alright we were wrong. "Dewey Defeats Truman" wrong. Trickle-Down Economics wrong. Quincy Carter as franchise QB wrong. But the scariest part is how wrong we might be. Seattle faces Chicago this week a team they beat handily at Soldier Field at midseason. Win that and couple it with a completely plausible Green Bay over Atlanta outcome and a 7-9 team could be hosting the NFC Championship game. Do they sell Locust Insurance?
PLAY: Saints -10/Under 47...1ST QUARTER: Brees to Colston for 30, Hartley 26 yd. FG, Saints on top faster than Nathan Lane at Fire Island...Hasselbeck intercepted, Brees to Evans 1 yd. TD and this one's done faster than Minute Rice in the microwave....Seahawks answer with TD, but...2ND QUARTER: Saints drive for a Jones TD. It's still over right?...Roman Harper bites on the Medi-Alert play ("I've fallen and I can't get up") and Hasselbeck to wide open Carlson 17-14 N.O.... Seattle FG ties it then in moment that causes every NY Giant fan to flashback Brandon Stokeley beats Jason Sehorn...er...Roman Harper for a 45 yard score and it's on baby...How bad is Saints S Roman Harper? He's been lit up like Richard Pryor for three huge plays (Carlson TD, Moorah 39-yarder, Stokeley TD) and there's still 5 minutes left in the half...Credit the fans. Crowd noise causing more false starts than the ADHD 100M Dash...Saints get chip shot from Hartley, 24-20 Seahawks...halftime. 3RD QUARTER: Put the parlay in the books as Hasselbeck goes 38 to Mike Williams for TD 3 minutes in...Reggie Bush stinks, yet still looks pissed that Julius Jones is getting playing time...Seattle FG at 5:27, Saints go for it 4th and 1 at own 37 and are stuffed, then miraculously force a punt to stay alive. 4TH QUARTER: Saints get TD and FG and close the gap, problem is they've turned into an episode of Friends where for every Chandler/Joey comedy score the D plays Ross/Rachel and brings you back down...3:22 Marshawn Lynch goes 67 yards like Fred Flintstone carrying the whole Stony Rock team and the worst club in playoff history has dethroned the defending champs.
PHI.-G.B.: PLAY: Philly -2.5/Under 46. 1ST QUARTER: David Akers misses from 41 and the Under's off to a flying  start...Desean Jackson's ankle gets rolled like a drunken "John" and Philly's minus 1 major weapon less then 8 minutes in...James Starks comes out of nowhere (U. of Buffalo actually) to give GB a run game...Philly D in the Red Zone is like a balanced breakfast to Karen Carpenter- it means nothing, and Rodgers finds Tom "You Can Call Me Chubsy-Ubsy" Crabtree for 7-0 lead...Announcer calls Jordy Nelson, "crafty, steady", I guess you just can't say "he's white"...GB's James Jones has dropped more balls this year than Michael J. Fox calling Bingo, but holds on off a Rodgers scramble and Philly's in trouble 14-3...And there's Jones calling out B14 on a perfect strike from Rodgers to save our Under just before halftime. 3RD QUARTER: Rodgers fumble, Avant TD and both ends of our parlay are alive 14-10...Rodgers right back to Brandon Jackson and we're in trouble again 21-10...4TH QUARTER: Akers with more shanks than a prison riot and we'll take a split as Philly fans get restless...Starks helps GB eat clock...Vick from 1 yd. makes it 21-16, 2-pt. fails as Akers' wife slips out of stadium quietly...Last chance, but Vick intercepted in end zone looking for Riley "Steady, Crafty" Cooper instead of Jax/Maclin and it's done.
FINAL THOUGHT: Rodgers rocks, add in any semblance of a running game to go with tough D and this team could be peaking at right time.

IND.-NYJ:
PLAY Jets +2.5/Over 44.5. 1ST QUARTER: First impression is that Joseph Addai is slow. Dial up internet slow. Molina brothers slow. Bad Guy/Heel escaping a Steel Cage in Pro Wrestling slow. Let's sign 52 year old Dominic Rhodes off the UFL Florida Tuskers roster slow...LT, on other hand, looks spry going for 23 on the first drive...Shonn Greene also looks fresh, but Sanchez has overthrown Keller more times than a Central American democracy and it's scoreless end of 1...2ND QUARTER: The entire game consists of drives that stall between the 40s and lead to pooch punts. Another disaster for our Over...Finally Manning to Garcon for 57 yds. 7-0 Colts...Jets drive back, but Sanchez intercepted at goal line. This won't fly vs. the Pats...45 seconds and the great Peyton on the field and HC Caldwell runs Rhodes up the middle, more on him later. Halftime...3RD QUARTER: Jets storm out to TD 7-7...Revis has made Reggie Wayne disappear like Spearchucker Jones from M*A*S*H (did they think they'd get away with that). Does he shadow Welker or Branch if Jets advance...Colts FG 10-7, but then...4TH QUARTER: Jets go on longest drive since I was 6 and Mom made us go to Mystic Seaport (17 plays) and it's Jets back on top...Fast forward to Colts 16-14, Jets in position for 49 yard FG attempt before Caldwell inexplicably calls timeout. Jets can still run down clock, but now get an extra play. 18 yards to Edwards, FG is now chippy, Manning throws up hands and it's not a good time to be Jim Caldwell.
FINAL NOTE: Jets will play better vs. Pats this time around, but Sanchez cannot waste opportunities like this and expect Brady/Belichick to stick around. Looking forward to excellent AFC matchups next week.

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

One Down...More To Come

Selections: 3-5
Sides: 2-2
Totals: 1-3
Wild Card weekend is over and the Saints, Chiefs, Colts and Eagles have been bounced like Roman Polanski from a Sweet Sixteen. For our part the selections were more David Akers than Marshawn Lynch, but it wasn't a total debacle and hopefully we have a better feel with 15 or so hours of playoff watching under our belt. WC recaps, a Saturday/Sunday lookahead and more nihilistic rantings than Jared Lee Loughner's My Space page up Wednesday night.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Picks Part Deaux

Yesterday: 1-3
Sides: 1-1
Totals: 0-2
This is why I no longer bet, but let's forge ahead anyway. One note- like most people I generally end up over the long run hitting about 50%. In real world gambling terms that's far from good enough because the vig will eat you alive (52.3% is truly break even). But for our "entertainment purposes" here it could lead to some interesting plays in that if I get well under .500 it may be time to jump aboard as my selections even out or if I hit a 4,5 or 6 game win streak it might be beneficial to go against these picks. You decide, but please gamble responsibly (actually I could care less, bet the ranch, it'll be your wife on your ass).

Baltimore -3/40.5
    The Ravens are trying to get back to The Big Game for the first time since they won the worst QB matchup in Super Bowl history (Trent Dilfer vs. Kerry Collins) outside of SB XVII, Joe Theismann vs. David Woodley (it could've been Woodley vs. Montana, Unitas or "Slingin" Sammy Baugh- he was just that bad http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WoodDa00.htm). The Chiefs are very tough at home, but have played a super soft schedule and are extremely young. The Ravens defense is not the total shut down unit from several years back, but it's still tough. Offensively they've found more balance of late after forgetting about the versatile Ray Rice for stretches early in the year. In his 3rd season Joe Flacco is playoff seasoned with wins at N.E., Mia. and Ten. already under his belt. The Chiefs are still building, the Ravens are there already so we'll say Baltimore and Over and if the number is 3.5 "buy the hook" (if you have to ask what that means you probably shouldn't be wagering).

Philadelphia -2.5/46.5
    I'm no Chippendale Dancer, in fact these days I'm more like a Chip-A-Hoy Dancer, but I'm sorry Andy Reid is FAT! He's also an excellent coach who probably won't truly be recognized for his genius until he wins a Super Bowl. Not sure if this is the year, but he does have some excellent weapons in Michael Vick, D-Jax, Maclin and McCoy. Is there enough D? It's hard to say, but the NFC heirarchy looks considerably weaker than the AFC's so the Eagles have a good chance. Mike McCarthy can also coach up some offense and Aaron Rodgers is a flat-out stud who should be Top 5 in every Fantasy draft due to his remarkable consistency. That said the Pack seems too one-dimensional with no ground game to speak of while "Ron Mexico's Kennel Club" (I played in a Fantasy league that featured that name plus "Tom Cable's Fight Club" and "My Dinner With Dahmer") can move the ball in a myriad of ways. How 'bout Philly and Under and let's call it a day.
Go to fullsize imageAndy Reid: The next generations Wilfred Brimley.

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Perilous Pigskin Prognostications

    As with my college selections please don't wire the baby's college fund to Antigua in anticipation of doubling up this weekend. However, for entertainment purposes here's my feelings on Saturday's games:

New Orleans -10/44
 Alright, the Seahawks should be ousted faster than Chuck from Happy Days, but what about the number. Sure playing at rowdy Qwest Field means the Saints have to run a gauntlet only slightly less daunting than The Warriors trying to get back to Coney Island, but baseball wielding clowns aside this is not the rookie-laden Rams coming in here, but the veteran-led Super Bowl Champs. The last similiar team to play in Seattle, the Giants, bombed Pete Carroll and crew 41-7. We don't expect as much from the run challenged defending champs, but even with Hasselbeck expected to play we'll say Saints and the Under and hope Seattle doesn't score 17 at which point we'd be unable to win both sides.

Indianapolis -2.5/44.5
    The Jets, with their staunch run D and shutdown corner (Revis), would have a field day against the run heavy/one receiver (Bowe) Chiefs. Here they get a much more difficult test in Peyton Manning. After watching the Jets get dumped by the Bears in Chicago it appeared they're vaunted D had become as vunerable as a recently fired exotic dancer with Daddy issues. In their last 3 road games (NE, PIT, CHI) they allowed 8 TD passes and 2 hundred yard rushers. So Peyton should get his points. But then so should the Jets. NY is much more balanced this year with a near 50-50 pass/run split and the WR corp is significantly upgraded with postseason stalwart Santonio Holmes. Indy has not held an opponent under 20 pts. in the last 7 weeks and that includes 3 games vs. the TD-challenged Jags and Titans, as well as, being pole-axed for 38 at home by Jon Kitna and the Cowboys. Putting this altogether or more likely just losing strength in my hunt-and-peck finger I'll wrap it up with Over and the JETS. Good luck and enjoy the games.

Friday, January 7, 2011

New Orleans Saints

    Up until the current regime the saga of the Saints was one of planning so bad it made Jimmy Carter's Operation Eagle Claw (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Claw) look good. Bad owners, bad GMs, bad coaches (we're looking at you Mike Ditka), pretty much bad everything. Yet we can pretty much pinpoint one incident that summarizes this nearly 40 years of ineptitude better than anything- the 1979 draft.
    With the 11th pick that year, before Hall of Famers Kellen Winslow and Joe Montana, the Saints took punter Russell Erxleben of Texas thereby making him the highest selected punter ever. Now drafting any type of kicker in the first round is a risky proposition on par with, say, ordering the fish at Peter Luger's- no matter how good it is you'll still be sorry when they start carving up the sirloin. And if the 'Aints needed a historical lesson to drive this point home they had to look no further than the only K/P ever drafted higher than Erxleben, Charlie Gogolak (#6) by Washington in 1966. Gogolak lasted 3 years in DC, made an abysmal 55% of his FGs and was bounced in 1969 by incoming coach Vince Lombardi, never one to look favorably on Lollipop Guild-sized, Ivy Leaguers with British accents parading around as real football players. Oh yeah, Washington went a NY Islander-like 17-22-3 in Gogolak's 3 seasons.
    And therein lies the problem. Teams selecting as early as the '79 Saints or '66 Redskins generally have more problems than a coupla extra FGs or a few yards in field position is going to solve. Coming off a mere 16 wins in the previous 4 seasons New Orleans was in no position to be tweaking a roster that had more holes than my college underwear. Even worse Erxleben wasn't even needed as 8th round Green Bay castoff Rick Partridge handled the punting chores that year to the tune of a 40.9 yard average, or .3 yards better than Erxleben for his career.
    But alas in the more egalitarian NFL mid to small market teams like the Saints are not forever relegated to Kansas City Royal-dom by a few poor decisions. In 2006 GM Mickey Loomis made one of the best decisions since Waylon Jennings gave up his seat to The Big Bopper on the day the music died when he dumped the Jim Haslett/Aaron Brooks experiment and brought in Sean Payton and Drew Brees. A couple moves on D, a find in Marques Colston and next thing you know they're partying on Bourbon Street like Girls Gone Wild is in town. And by the way their punter Thomas Morstead- picked 164th overall. Lesson learned.
OFFENSE: The deal here is pretty much the same as the Colts. Injuries and lack of a run game are making this club more and more one dimensional and therefore easier for better teams to defend. Drew Brees has thrown 34 (rank 1) and 33 (2) TD passes in the last two years, the only difference being that he needed 114 more passes in 2010 to do slightly less. That's because the NO run game went from #5 in the league in '09 to #29 this year. Reggie Bush's fibula snapped like Beats at a poetry reading, Pierre Thomas proved more brittle than the gum in baseball card packs and now Chris Ivory has joined Thomas on IR meaning see ya in August 2011 for that duo. This means the ground game falls to Julius Jones and Ladell Betts a pair of backfield mates not likely to invoke visions of Hornung and Taylor. They may be able to get some balance vs. 7-9 Seattle, but beyond that it should be pass, pass, pass, and like the gay guy managing three boyfriends that's a lot of balls in the air.
DEFENSE: Defensively the Saints have been more stout than last year in terms of yards allowed and points, but the big difference is in turnovers. More specifically in interceptions where they went from 26 in 2009 to a mere 9 this season. Still hiring Gregg Williams and canning ex-Oklahoma coach Gary Gibbs was another strong management move that has produced results. Williams' defense finished 7th in points allowed while I've seen drunken nymphos put up more resistance that Gibbs' D in 2007/08- which come to think of it may say more about me than Gary Gibbs. Turnovers are always huge and for the most part unpredictable but if the Saints, who were -6 this year, can get a few more to fall their way in the playoffs maybe just enough defense and Drew Brees right arm can get them to Big D for the Big One when all's said and done.
The Lingerie Football League (http://www.lflus.com/) has announced a Pay-Per-View event for the weekend prior to the Super Bowl. Though why anyone would pay to see scantily clad bimbos on TV when you get the Spanish channel for free is hard to understand.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Seattle Seahawks

GENERAL: Let's be honest here, the Seahawks have about as much business in the playoffs as I do in the cast of Gossip Girl. Unfortunately, though, this year's NFC West was the worst division in the history of the league, so like Mr. Ethiopia, an Eskimo Beauty Pagaent or the French Medal of Honor somebody had to win it. That team was Seattle which dragged across the finish line like Kramer at the Aids Walk going 3-7 in their last 10 with the wins coming against the "Murder-ed Row" of 5-11 Arizona, 2-14 Carolina and St. Louis in the "play-in" finale. And that's exactly what that contest resembled- the tortured, forced play-in games that we dutifully ignore every March with the Rams playing Nicholls State to the Seahawks 
IUPU-something or other. But now it's time to take on the Duke's and UCONN's of this world so like David Arquette and John Mellencamp's marriages it's just a matter of time...

but hey it was damn sure worth the ride!
OFFENSE: The breath of hope for bad teams that reach this point is the 2008 run of the Arizona Cardinals that ended just short of winning the big Golden Football. Sadly for fans in the Great Northwest the Cards were blessed with future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner throwing to future HOF-er Larry Fitzgerald while the Seabirds have- Charlie Whitehurst. Of course Whitehurst might not play if Matt Hasselbeck, who has a hip so fragile AARP won't insure it, is able to suit up. Still, Clemson Charlie was brought here to be the QB of the future, but unlike Timbuk 3 it appears Seattle fans don't have to wear shades. You see Whitehurst is just bad. Maybe not Sofia Coppola in The Godfather III bad, but more like Keanu Reeves in...well...anything bad. In other words he looks like a QB in terms of size and arm strength, but he plays like...well...Keanu Reeves in The Replacements. That's probably why most pure football fans were rooting for the Rams Sunday night. They seem like a team on the ascendancy while this crew looks like a mess. Their three best players-Hasselbeck, Mike Williams,Okung- are dinged, Marshawn Lynch is painfully slow and their best receiver at this point is the former Prime Minister of Ghana Ben Obomanu. Not exactly a recipe for keeping up with Drew Brees and the defending SB Champs. So like the maternity ward doctor told Sandra Bernhard's parents, "it looks like this one is gonna get ugly."
 
DEFENSE: When former longtime NFL defensive guru Pete Carroll bolted USC amidst the biggest scandal this side of whatever Sugar Bowl memorabilia Terrelle Pryor posted on E-Bay in the last two days the thought was at least the defense will improve. It didn't. The 'Hawks ranked between 21 and 28 in every pertinent defensive category including getting piledriven for 545 yards by the Raiders which is the NHL equivalent of giving up 3 goals to the NJ Devils. They have no Pro Bowlers on either side of the ball, their kick coverage units are suspect, but hey, Olindo Mare had a nice year so they've got that going for 'em. And now in the name of Carpel Tunnel Prevention I will not waste another keystroke on the football equivalent of the Democratic Senate- from Seahawks to Lame Ducks.
Perhaps I was a little rough on Charlie Whitehurst...

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Indianapolis Colts

GENERAL: On a winter night in 1984 the Irsay family packed the then Baltimore Colts up like the Clampetts heading to Bev-er-lee and stole away into the night as if they were Randy Quaid off to Canada with a posse of "Star Whackers" on his tail (http://theweek.com/article/index/207293/what-happened-to-randy-quaid). Since then the club has gone from the Art Schlicter/Jeff George sporting laughingstocks of the league to the Peyton Manning-led model of consistency we see today.
    Still if the recent history of the Colts were a High School romance Peyton Manning would be Phoebe Cates and the Colts' fans Judge Reinhold walking around with balls bluer than a Smurf in the Polar Bear Club. In 11 of Manning's 13 seasons Indy has reached the playoffs yet only once have they taken home the hardware for a Susan Lucci meets Alydar-like record of close, but no cigar. Of course this is a record of success any Pittsburgh Pirate fan could/will only dream of, but it does point out the difficulty of "putting it all together" in the NFL where one superstar does not a Lombardi Trophy make.
    Whether the Colts have enough to grab another brass ring in their current state or the window of opportunity is closing faster than that on the career of a post "I Will Survive" Gloria Gaynor (ironic, really) is unknown. This weekend versus Rex Ryan and Gang Green could go a long toward seeing if we have a changing of the AFC guard on the horizon.
OFFENSE: Even with Peyton the Great at the helm this offense struggled to find any kind of consistency in 2010 which is what happens when you sport a ground unit reminiscent of the Iraqi Republican Guard (which by the way differed from the late Ted Kennedy in that Kennedy had actually killed an American) and a receiver corps that looks like Little Roundtop after Pickett's Charge. Joseph Addai appears worn and slow, Donald Brown has underachieved, Dallas Clark is done for the year and Austin Collie's suffered more head trauma this season than Billy Mays and Natasha Richardson combined. In exactly half their games this year the Colts rushed for under 80 yards total and only 1 of those affairs (vs. SD) was a blowout. They just simply had more trouble opening holes than Muhammad Ali's House of Piercings going 3-5 in those games. Manning is now 34 and has never been mobile, Pierre Garcon is inconsistent, Collie/Clark won't be back and at 32 Reggie Wayne can't do it all by himself. The emergence of Jacob Tamme helps, but this group needs to run the ball to take the pressure off Peyton and an increasingly middling defense. Unfortunately in a 6 team tourney featuring the run stuffing Jets, Ravens and Steelers it seems hard to imagine a repeat of 2006.
DEFENSE: As I mentioned Indy's defense is an average bunch that finished #22 overall and is susceptible to the run giving up over 2000 yards and 14 TDs via the ground. Instead let's take a second to address the Cover-2, a defense associated with Tony Dungy and thus by proxy with the Colts. In the mid to late 90s when Dungy was employing this style to great effect in Tampa Bay it was looked at as some sort of miracle scheme that allowed safeties to roll coverage toward dangerous WRs effectively bracketing and neutralizing them. You still hear this type of talk in Fantasy circles where analysts fear superstars who get little help from teammates will get some sort of undue attention from opposing defenses. And yet year after year wideouts like Roddy White, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson put up monster numbers despite have the cast of the Big Bang Theory manning receiving spots alongside them. Problem is the Cover-2 is predicated on clogging the short zones with cornerbacks and linebackers and getting enough of a pass rush to force a throw before receivers can flood the deep areas. If the QB has enough time offenses are smart enough to simply run multiple receivers at the safeties (the advent of athletic TEs and slot receivers being an effective weapon here), wait for them to commit and throw the other way. With teams like Tampa in the 90's where a talented D-Line was stuffing the run and harrassing the QB this worked to perfection, in Indy the results have been more sketchy. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are still causing more backfield havoc than Elton John on a drunken rampage, but a shaky run D has undermined the overall effect and the Colts finished in the lower third of the league in sacks in 2010. Can they hold down Tomlinson/Greene enough to force Sanchez into 3rd and longs and then get enough pressure to force hurried decisions? That's the question that should be critical to potentially the best matchup of Wild Card weekend.

You can add your own bad seaman/semen pun here:

Monday, January 3, 2011

New York Jets

NOTE: Colts post up next. Selections coming Friday.
GENERAL: The New York Jets have played Jim Messina to the the Giants Kenny Loggins for so long it's hard to remember that they were touring with Buffalo Springfield when the other was still sleeping through Freshmen Western Civ.!?!...er... perhaps I've over-referenced here, but one does have to go back to the days of "For What It's Worth" and The Flying Burrito Brothers to find the last time the J-Men were more relevant in the NY-Metro area than the G-Men. For in the Summer of '69 Bryan Adams wasn't the only one having the "best days of his life". You see it wasn't just the acid and pot that had Jet fans high enough to not question what the hell Sha Na Na was doing at Woodstock, but also the fact their team was off its historic Super Bowl III win and primed for even more success. Meanwhile their crosstown rivals were two years removed from a 1-12 season and in the midst of a playoff drought that would eventually take on Clippers-esque proportions. Then suddenly it all went wrong. Between bad knees and chasing every Jill, Jane and Suzy Kolber around Manhattan SB III hero Joe Namath lost his mojo, Wilbur Charles Ewbank hung up his "Weeb" jacket to be replaced by the misnomer-ed Charley Winner and fight song composing Lou Holtz (http://www.realclearsports.com/lists/short_coaching_stints/lou_holtz_jets.html)  and after a few bad drafts the J-E-T-S's were staring at 11 straight non-winning seasons. In the meantime the Giants discovered the genius that is Bill Parcells (just ask him), won two Super Bowls in 5 years and NY/NJ fans dropped the Jets faster than Deanna Favre is about to drop Brett.
    So no matter how this whole Rex Ryan experiment turns out in the long run it's at least put the Jet-sons on the back covers once again. For the Buddha of the Blitz, the Pharaoh of the FUPA (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=FUPA), the Uncle Buck of the Toe Suck is at least entertaining...and, like Parcells, more than a little bit sure of himself. During HBO's Hard Knocks series T-Rex proved cockier than John Holmes on Enzyte by predicticting nothing short of a Super Bowl in 2010. Considering his team snuck past bottom feeders Detroit, Cleveland and Denver by only a combined 13 points all on the road and got slammed 45-3 in Foxboro it may be a little much to expect a championship run out of the 6 hole in this tourney. Still the Jets are in the Big Dance and it's the Giants who are wallflowers this year so crank up the Strawberry Alarm Clock and Canned Heat, man, it's like the Summer of Love all over again!
OFFENSE: Even long before Rex Ryan's father Buddy played Mike Tyson to Kevin Gilbride's Mitch "Blood" Green on Jack Pardee's staff in Houston it was well known that given the choice Defensive Coordinators prefer offenses that run the ball, minimize turnovers and chew clock. In 2009 the Jets ran the ball an ungodly 607 times sparing then rookie QB Mark Sanchez from undue emotional stress and allowing their defense to win them ball games. Of course it's not the Loaves and the Fishes, teams catch up to this type of one-dimensional style so this season NY moved to a nearly 50-50 pass/run split and put more of the onus on Sanchez' shoulders. The results were decidedly mixed as Sanchez recorded a 75.3 QB Rate, up from 65 last year, which put him behind such forgettable 2010 signal callers as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jon Kitna, Shaun Hill and, good God, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell. Yet if "Off-The Marky" Mark can at least protect the ball the Jets have a chance to play on. In the 6 games (excluding this week) Sanchez threw no interceptions the Jets were 5-1 including the 22-17 win two weeks ago in Pittsburgh. The backfield with a Norv Turner-less and thus rejuvenated LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene sharing the load is lethal and rested with neither garnering more than 220 carries behind the Mangold and Ferguson ("Honey, if it's boy how 'bout D'Brickashaw") led OL. Braylon Edwards led the team in receiving yards and TDs, but in the past has suffered from more dropped balls than the men's lockerroom in Cocoon. Fortunately the Jets were smart enough to acquire former Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes in preseason despite his having to serve a 4 game suspension. Holmes has had some issues with marijuana use/possession, but as one NBA regular noted when Commissioner David Stern raised the idea of testing and suspending players for pot, "they won't be able to field two teams." And with steady Dustin Keller rounding out the skill positions this is a balanced bunch that only needs to hold onto the ball to do damage.
DEFENSE: Like the running game on offense opponents made adjustments in attacking this defense and while still quite good some chinks have been found. Most notably via the air where teams went from a stunningly low 8 TD passes in 2009 to 24 this year. Darrel Revis remains the Human Snuggie at one corner, but teams have utilized slot receivers to greater extent and sniffed out many of Rexy's blitz packages that were ultra-effective a year ago. All this means that the man with the cane, Special Teams Coach Mike Westhoff may become an important player this week. Westhoff, who went to the cane after a few seasons of one crutch- a look only good if you're coming home from the Battle of Antietam- has a solid group led by a steady Nick Folk and solid return man Brad Smith. The Jets drew bad this week getting Peyton Manning instead of Matt Cassel, but if they win the turnover and special team battles the sum of the rest of their parts could be enough to send them to The Hoodies 'hood in New England in a couple of weeks.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Kansas City Chiefs

NOTE: This is the first in our playoff team previews. New York Jets post up Monday night. Selections up Friday. Recaps of all games next week. Thanks for reading.
GENERAL: The history of the Chiefs is a story of feast or famine, a series of brief periods of success surrounded by more bad runs than a Cholera epidemic. Whether this current incarnation is in the midst of Darfur or dinner at Kirstie Alley's house is hard to tell yet, as we'll show, but for better or worse they're back in the playoff picture for the first time in 4 years and that's an accomplishment in itself.
    The Chiefs began their franchise life not in KC or even the NFL, but as the Dallas Texans of the AFL, a league that if those old NFL Films videos tell us anything was a place that never saw a no-look, over the shoulder lateral it didn't like. However, with the population of Dallas unable to support two teams owner and AFL founder Lamar Hunt moved the squad to the BBQ capital of the Midwest in 1963 and changed them to the Chiefs thereby saving the league from the Canadian Football League's longtime "Roughriders" debacle where two teams have the same nickname (who owned the second  Roughrider franchise, Raymond Babbitt- "yeah definitely have to name the team Roughriders, definitely Roughriders"). At that point the Hank Stram-led club was, like Jimmy Cagney in White Heat, on top of the world having just won the AFL Championship in 1962. The good times would roll through their appearance, along with that giant papier mache Chief player, in Super Bowl I before culminating with their first NFL Championship upon beating the Vikings in SB IV.
   From there, though, the oil tank proceeded to blow them sky high as Stram lost the magic, Marv Levy was prematurely ejected after the '82 strike season and John Mackovic, a coach so mild-mannered he could make Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Jimmy_Carter#.22Malaise.22_speech) look like something out of Knute Rockne: All-American, bolted back to college after leading the team to its first playoff appearance in 15 years in 1986. Then after a two-year brain fart known as Frank Gansz the postseason-challenged Marty Schottenheimer took over and led the club to extra games in 7 of the next 9 seasons. But after losing twice in their first playoff game after 13-3 seasons the players, fans and management soured on "The Schott". The Chiefs would then see the postseason only twice in the next 12 years before coach Todd Haley and GM Scott Pioli got their chance to right the ship in 2009.
OFFENSE: When Todd Haley left his Offensive Coordinator job at Arizona to take the coaching reins here he found more holes to fill than the Times crossword at Heidi and Spencer's house. Going from Kurt Warner/LarryFitzgerald/Anquan Boldin to Tyler Thigpen/Dwayne Bowe/Mark Bradley was kinda like going from Kim Kardashian to Khloe without even getting a roll with Kourtney along the way, but still  he persevered. Ostensibly the QB of the future here was expected to be Brodie Croyle, but like Scarlett Johansson's supposed super hotness, Pioli and Haley just weren't getting it. Unfortunately the best free agent QB on the market was Matt Cassel who in his entire college career and first three seasons as a pro threw less passes than Mike Ditka on a gay singles cruise (79 in 7 years) before breaking out due to Tom Brady's injury in 2008. After stumbling in Year 1 Cassel found his Game Manager groove in 2010, not throwing often or for many yards (ranked 29 and 28 respectively), but developing a game more efficient (27/5 TD/Int. ratio) than a Smart Car if only slightly prettier.
    The real engine driving this team is their top ranked running game paced by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. Actually it's mostly paced by Charles with his 1300+ yards and ridiculous 6.4 yard average. And that's after starting the year as backup to Jones in the biggest injustice since Milli Vanilli won a Grammy in 1989 (I blamed it on the rain, but that's just me). If the ground game is going it opens things up for Dwayne Bowe who thrilled many an unsuspecting Fantasy owner this year by bouncing back from an injury/issue filled 2009 with a 1000 yard/15 TD effort this year. The rest (Moeaki/Chambers/McCluster) is just filler. Still against a schedule so soft that Boise State has tried to lock it in for next year the new Chiefs offense was in the Top 12 in points, but whether they can function at that level against the Jets or the Ravens is still to be seen.
DEFENSE: In keeping with the aforementioned theme the Chiefs defense improved greatly in 2010, but the question remains if those improvements were legit or a scheduling mirage. The development of young, highly touted players like Tamba Hali, Glenn Dorsey, Javon Belcher and rookie Eric Berry plus the return of LB Derrick Johnson from injury suggests the former, however a perusal of the skeds from the last two years raises some doubts. In terms of points and yards allowed K.C. went from the 30th ranked D in 2009 to #10 this year while gaining 6 wins, a seemingly significant improvement. However, according to Pro Football Reference the Chiefs faced one of the weakest schedules in 2010, including matchups with the NFL's version of the Sun Belt Conference- the NFC West- after having played a middle of the pack slate in 2009. In fact the whole thing may be the biggest house of cards this side of Madoff Investments as in the past two years Todd Haley's Comets have gone 2-6 versus playoff teams with those wins coming at the hands of 7-9 Seattle in 2010 and the Steelers in a 2009 overtime game in which they were outgained 516-282. In the 6 losses to playoffs teams they were outscored by an average of 18.2 ppg.
   All this bodes poorly for a deep playoff run except for the fact that by virtue of winning their division the Chiefs get at least 1 home game in a stadium where they went a dominant 7-1 this year. As hostile environments go Arrowhead Stadium is considered only slightly less dangerous for visiting teams than the Double Deuce Roadhouse before Patrick Swazye's Dalton showed up. So even if it's one and done K.C. fans will at least get to exercise their vocal chords and, hey, it beats hell out of the Todd Blackledge era any day.
I pulled a hammy...and a few other things, just looking at this picture.

One More Round

    Like George Costanza after eating Kramer's mango, "I'm back, baby!" (yes, I'm using George's "babys" now). First thing I'd like to say is thank you to all the people concerned about my brief sabbatical. This Holiday season was unfortunately filled with screaming, yelling, accusations, recriminations, crying, hair pulling, bouts of drunkenness...and that was just me; or as Courtney Love calls it, "Tuesday night". But like my recent case of hemorrhoids that's all behind me now. Part of the problem was that in deciding to tackle 35 bowl games in 25 days I was, like Mama Cass and that fateful ham sandwich, biting off more than I could chew. This time around we'll focus on only one bowl, the Super Bowl, and aim our sarcastic, cynical, gimlet-soaked eye at the teams competing for that prize. If you've been here before you know the drill: slightly off-center team previews accented with a helping of sophomoric humor and topped by several superfluous, suggestive cheerleader pics. We'll follow that with our "Against The Spread" selections (which by the way went 6-2 in college bowls before I did a Dave Chappelle, Season 3 on this site). So thanks for coming back or dropping by for the first time.The liquor cabinet is locked, the Paxil subscription has been refilled and hopefully I'll be here through the Lombardi Trophy presentation. See ya Monday.