Sunday, January 9, 2011

Picks Part Deaux

Yesterday: 1-3
Sides: 1-1
Totals: 0-2
This is why I no longer bet, but let's forge ahead anyway. One note- like most people I generally end up over the long run hitting about 50%. In real world gambling terms that's far from good enough because the vig will eat you alive (52.3% is truly break even). But for our "entertainment purposes" here it could lead to some interesting plays in that if I get well under .500 it may be time to jump aboard as my selections even out or if I hit a 4,5 or 6 game win streak it might be beneficial to go against these picks. You decide, but please gamble responsibly (actually I could care less, bet the ranch, it'll be your wife on your ass).

Baltimore -3/40.5
    The Ravens are trying to get back to The Big Game for the first time since they won the worst QB matchup in Super Bowl history (Trent Dilfer vs. Kerry Collins) outside of SB XVII, Joe Theismann vs. David Woodley (it could've been Woodley vs. Montana, Unitas or "Slingin" Sammy Baugh- he was just that bad http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WoodDa00.htm). The Chiefs are very tough at home, but have played a super soft schedule and are extremely young. The Ravens defense is not the total shut down unit from several years back, but it's still tough. Offensively they've found more balance of late after forgetting about the versatile Ray Rice for stretches early in the year. In his 3rd season Joe Flacco is playoff seasoned with wins at N.E., Mia. and Ten. already under his belt. The Chiefs are still building, the Ravens are there already so we'll say Baltimore and Over and if the number is 3.5 "buy the hook" (if you have to ask what that means you probably shouldn't be wagering).

Philadelphia -2.5/46.5
    I'm no Chippendale Dancer, in fact these days I'm more like a Chip-A-Hoy Dancer, but I'm sorry Andy Reid is FAT! He's also an excellent coach who probably won't truly be recognized for his genius until he wins a Super Bowl. Not sure if this is the year, but he does have some excellent weapons in Michael Vick, D-Jax, Maclin and McCoy. Is there enough D? It's hard to say, but the NFC heirarchy looks considerably weaker than the AFC's so the Eagles have a good chance. Mike McCarthy can also coach up some offense and Aaron Rodgers is a flat-out stud who should be Top 5 in every Fantasy draft due to his remarkable consistency. That said the Pack seems too one-dimensional with no ground game to speak of while "Ron Mexico's Kennel Club" (I played in a Fantasy league that featured that name plus "Tom Cable's Fight Club" and "My Dinner With Dahmer") can move the ball in a myriad of ways. How 'bout Philly and Under and let's call it a day.
Go to fullsize imageAndy Reid: The next generations Wilfred Brimley.