Losing out on one winner due to a Pick 6 in the last 20 seconds (Den./NYJ) is heartbreaking. Losing out on 3 winners because of a second Pick 6 in the final 20 seconds is kinda like being in prison in New Hampshire and having to stamp out "Live Free Or Die" on license plates all day...It's cruel and unusual. We went from 7-6 or 6-6-1 to 4-8-1 sadly.
The system we used is Value-based which is why we are often contrarian to public handicappers. This week there are quite a few contrarian plays, but we are concerned the method may be understating the ineffectiveness of QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Charlie Whitehurst (oh, it thinks they're bad, but maybe unable to fathom just how bad). To date we are 39-29-1 overall. Let's see how today plays out before we start tweaking the parts. Here they are...
SIDES (15-13): Oakland +3.5; Minnesota +6.5; Tennessee +6.0; Cincinnati +3.5; Miami +3.0
TOTALS (24-16-1): Ten./Was. Under 46.5; N.O./Det. Over 46.5; Mia./Chi. Under 48.0; Atl./Bal. Under 50.0; Cle./Jac. Over 44.5; Cin./Ind. Under 50.5; Min./Buf. Over 43.5; NYG/Dal. Over 47.0
Do as you wish with these...
Showing posts with label Ravens. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ravens. Show all posts
Sunday, October 19, 2014
Saturday, January 15, 2011
Warily Waggish Wagers
First off let me reiterate my weekly disclaimer that these selections are based on the most cursory perusal of pertinent details since it was decided to give Emeril a sitcom. Nonetheless I'll throw out the crap I've come up with and hope for the best...kinda like Jimmy Fallon does every night. Here goes...
Pittsburgh -3/37
This one looks harder than trying to remember all the new Zodiac dates. I mean I just figured out the Terrorist Threat Level colors and now this! Last week Baltimore blew out the Chiefs which has probably inflated their value. This week they won't likely be the beneficiaries of 5 turnovers (Pit. was +14 this year) or the worst aerial attack since the Egyptians in the Six Day War. Roethlisberger may be the poor man's Tom Brady, but that's miles better than Matt Cassel plus add in WR Mike Wallace, who had a 1200 yard breakout year, along with Hines Ward and this is a unit that will put much more pressure on the Ravens secondary than K.C and waiver wire fodder like Kevin Curtis did. We don't figure either team to run well, but Pittsburgh's O-Line has been steadier this year than Baltimore's which seemed to regress after a dominating 2009. The key for the Steelers will be controlling LB Terrell Suggs who beat on Roethlisberger like he was Meredith Baxter in a Lifetime Original Movie back in their December matchup.We think they will and in the least surprising revelation since we found out Brett Favre has a sister who's into Meth and spells "Brandy" with an "i" we think it will be low scoring. That means PITTSBURGH and UNDER...good luck!
Atlanta -1.5/44
Like Valerie Bertinelli's marriage to Eddie Van Halen there's something about the Falcons we just don't get. Roddy White is great, Matt Ryan is developing on pace and the defense is improved still it doesn't seem to add up to 13-3 dominance. From 2009 to 2010 Atlanta improved by close to 50 points in both points scored and points allowed. Part of that is due to maturation on offense and the addition of CB Dunta Robinson on defense, but part is also due to a schedule that went from one of the toughest in the NFC to one of of the softest courtesy of drawing the NFC West this year. In 4 games against the West and two against Carolina the Dirty Birds allowed 12.7 ppg. In their 10 other games they gave up 21.2 ppg and were gashed for 418 yards at home against the Pack in November. Some of this may be statistical b.s., but we prefer a team that has consolidated its gains over the course of multiple years. The Packers have done that producing back-to-back seasons of 380+ points for and <300 points against (I always like using the "less than" sign in real life, although the officer that pulled me over for speeding didn't quite appreciate the humor in my hand gesture). They also have Donald Driver back for this one (injured in November), as well as the benefit of an improved run game courtesy of James Starks. Plus we like what Aaron Rodgers is doing and if his line can control the pass rush of John Abraham we like his chances. We'll call it PACKERS and OVER figuring if Atlanta does run out and hide Green Bay will still get its garbage points.
I know it's college football, but all I can think is, "her parents must be so proud."
Pittsburgh -3/37
This one looks harder than trying to remember all the new Zodiac dates. I mean I just figured out the Terrorist Threat Level colors and now this! Last week Baltimore blew out the Chiefs which has probably inflated their value. This week they won't likely be the beneficiaries of 5 turnovers (Pit. was +14 this year) or the worst aerial attack since the Egyptians in the Six Day War. Roethlisberger may be the poor man's Tom Brady, but that's miles better than Matt Cassel plus add in WR Mike Wallace, who had a 1200 yard breakout year, along with Hines Ward and this is a unit that will put much more pressure on the Ravens secondary than K.C and waiver wire fodder like Kevin Curtis did. We don't figure either team to run well, but Pittsburgh's O-Line has been steadier this year than Baltimore's which seemed to regress after a dominating 2009. The key for the Steelers will be controlling LB Terrell Suggs who beat on Roethlisberger like he was Meredith Baxter in a Lifetime Original Movie back in their December matchup.We think they will and in the least surprising revelation since we found out Brett Favre has a sister who's into Meth and spells "Brandy" with an "i" we think it will be low scoring. That means PITTSBURGH and UNDER...good luck!
Atlanta -1.5/44
Like Valerie Bertinelli's marriage to Eddie Van Halen there's something about the Falcons we just don't get. Roddy White is great, Matt Ryan is developing on pace and the defense is improved still it doesn't seem to add up to 13-3 dominance. From 2009 to 2010 Atlanta improved by close to 50 points in both points scored and points allowed. Part of that is due to maturation on offense and the addition of CB Dunta Robinson on defense, but part is also due to a schedule that went from one of the toughest in the NFC to one of of the softest courtesy of drawing the NFC West this year. In 4 games against the West and two against Carolina the Dirty Birds allowed 12.7 ppg. In their 10 other games they gave up 21.2 ppg and were gashed for 418 yards at home against the Pack in November. Some of this may be statistical b.s., but we prefer a team that has consolidated its gains over the course of multiple years. The Packers have done that producing back-to-back seasons of 380+ points for and <300 points against (I always like using the "less than" sign in real life, although the officer that pulled me over for speeding didn't quite appreciate the humor in my hand gesture). They also have Donald Driver back for this one (injured in November), as well as the benefit of an improved run game courtesy of James Starks. Plus we like what Aaron Rodgers is doing and if his line can control the pass rush of John Abraham we like his chances. We'll call it PACKERS and OVER figuring if Atlanta does run out and hide Green Bay will still get its garbage points.
I know it's college football, but all I can think is, "her parents must be so proud."
Thursday, January 13, 2011
What We Saw...WC Recaps
K.C-BAL.:
PLAY: Ravens -3/ Over 40.5 1ST QUARTER Ravens go 13 plays to the 1. Flacco fumbles, run game non-existent. Chiefs look like AFC version of Seahawks, but hold for FG...KC 3 and out, Ravens driving till Flacco fumbles...Jamaal Charles is the real deal, Top 5 Fantasy pick real, 41 yards for TD- best player/worst supporting cast since Larry Bird took Indiana State to the NCAA Final...TJ Houhmanzadeh sighting for 28, but Ravens bog down, forced into an "over-killing" punt from opponents 40...2ND QUARTER: Charles for 11, Charles for 8, Charles for 9, forget Larry Bird this is a David Robinson at Navy kinda one man show...Charles fumbles, both teams trade punts from opponents territory in what has become the football version of the 4 corners offense...Flacco to Rice for a 9 yard TD with 19 seconds and the Ravens/Over parlay has new life...halftime...3RD QUARTER Nakamura (wasn't that the second city hit by the A-bomb) intercepts Cassel, loses lateral, KC recovers and the Over goes back into hiding...4th and 1, Charles loses 4, colorman Mayock tells us "penetration is the key to stopping the run game", no sh*t...Cundiff 29 yd. FG, KC fumble, Cundiff 29 yd. FG, KC int., Flacco to Boldin TD, Ravens 23-7- it's over, but it's not OVER so we'll stick around...4TH QUARTER: Cassel has to pass, but is having as much success finding Bowe as I do with the toothbrush in the tree in Highlights magazine...Cassel to his #2 WR Kevin Curtis. Kevin "Freakin" Curtis? Dear God what an Under...Ravens go on longer march than Mao, kill 10:20 off clock before McGahee from 25 for TD...We need KC TD for the parlay, Cassel sacked, Cassel incomplete, Cassel sacked, punt- sounds about right...Ravens 30 KC 7.
FINAL THOUGHTS: KC was better than the Seahawks and playing at an equally advantageous home field which should tell you all you need to know about the dominance of the best in the AFC over the best in the NFC...The Ravens running game is like the thong drawer in Rosie O'Donnell's dresser, it doesn't exist. Forget the numbers, most of that was piled up late when the KC defense was on the field constantly and Baltimore had put up a near 2:1 advantage in plays run...Not gonna happen against Pittsburgh and James Harrison's gonna be on Flacco like Jerry Lee Lewis on a cousin. Baltimore's defense better show up big at Heinz Field.
SEA.-N.O.:
NOTE: Alright we were wrong. "Dewey Defeats Truman" wrong. Trickle-Down Economics wrong. Quincy Carter as franchise QB wrong. But the scariest part is how wrong we might be. Seattle faces Chicago this week a team they beat handily at Soldier Field at midseason. Win that and couple it with a completely plausible Green Bay over Atlanta outcome and a 7-9 team could be hosting the NFC Championship game. Do they sell Locust Insurance?
PLAY: Saints -10/Under 47...1ST QUARTER: Brees to Colston for 30, Hartley 26 yd. FG, Saints on top faster than Nathan Lane at Fire Island...Hasselbeck intercepted, Brees to Evans 1 yd. TD and this one's done faster than Minute Rice in the microwave....Seahawks answer with TD, but...2ND QUARTER: Saints drive for a Jones TD. It's still over right?...Roman Harper bites on the Medi-Alert play ("I've fallen and I can't get up") and Hasselbeck to wide open Carlson 17-14 N.O.... Seattle FG ties it then in moment that causes every NY Giant fan to flashback Brandon Stokeley beats Jason Sehorn...er...Roman Harper for a 45 yard score and it's on baby...How bad is Saints S Roman Harper? He's been lit up like Richard Pryor for three huge plays (Carlson TD, Moorah 39-yarder, Stokeley TD) and there's still 5 minutes left in the half...Credit the fans. Crowd noise causing more false starts than the ADHD 100M Dash...Saints get chip shot from Hartley, 24-20 Seahawks...halftime. 3RD QUARTER: Put the parlay in the books as Hasselbeck goes 38 to Mike Williams for TD 3 minutes in...Reggie Bush stinks, yet still looks pissed that Julius Jones is getting playing time...Seattle FG at 5:27, Saints go for it 4th and 1 at own 37 and are stuffed, then miraculously force a punt to stay alive. 4TH QUARTER: Saints get TD and FG and close the gap, problem is they've turned into an episode of Friends where for every Chandler/Joey comedy score the D plays Ross/Rachel and brings you back down...3:22 Marshawn Lynch goes 67 yards like Fred Flintstone carrying the whole Stony Rock team and the worst club in playoff history has dethroned the defending champs.
PHI.-G.B.: PLAY: Philly -2.5/Under 46. 1ST QUARTER: David Akers misses from 41 and the Under's off to a flying start...Desean Jackson's ankle gets rolled like a drunken "John" and Philly's minus 1 major weapon less then 8 minutes in...James Starks comes out of nowhere (U. of Buffalo actually) to give GB a run game...Philly D in the Red Zone is like a balanced breakfast to Karen Carpenter- it means nothing, and Rodgers finds Tom "You Can Call Me Chubsy-Ubsy" Crabtree for 7-0 lead...Announcer calls Jordy Nelson, "crafty, steady", I guess you just can't say "he's white"...GB's James Jones has dropped more balls this year than Michael J. Fox calling Bingo, but holds on off a Rodgers scramble and Philly's in trouble 14-3...And there's Jones calling out B14 on a perfect strike from Rodgers to save our Under just before halftime. 3RD QUARTER: Rodgers fumble, Avant TD and both ends of our parlay are alive 14-10...Rodgers right back to Brandon Jackson and we're in trouble again 21-10...4TH QUARTER: Akers with more shanks than a prison riot and we'll take a split as Philly fans get restless...Starks helps GB eat clock...Vick from 1 yd. makes it 21-16, 2-pt. fails as Akers' wife slips out of stadium quietly...Last chance, but Vick intercepted in end zone looking for Riley "Steady, Crafty" Cooper instead of Jax/Maclin and it's done.
FINAL THOUGHT: Rodgers rocks, add in any semblance of a running game to go with tough D and this team could be peaking at right time.
IND.-NYJ:
PLAY Jets +2.5/Over 44.5. 1ST QUARTER: First impression is that Joseph Addai is slow. Dial up internet slow. Molina brothers slow. Bad Guy/Heel escaping a Steel Cage in Pro Wrestling slow. Let's sign 52 year old Dominic Rhodes off the UFL Florida Tuskers roster slow...LT, on other hand, looks spry going for 23 on the first drive...Shonn Greene also looks fresh, but Sanchez has overthrown Keller more times than a Central American democracy and it's scoreless end of 1...2ND QUARTER: The entire game consists of drives that stall between the 40s and lead to pooch punts. Another disaster for our Over...Finally Manning to Garcon for 57 yds. 7-0 Colts...Jets drive back, but Sanchez intercepted at goal line. This won't fly vs. the Pats...45 seconds and the great Peyton on the field and HC Caldwell runs Rhodes up the middle, more on him later. Halftime...3RD QUARTER: Jets storm out to TD 7-7...Revis has made Reggie Wayne disappear like Spearchucker Jones from M*A*S*H (did they think they'd get away with that). Does he shadow Welker or Branch if Jets advance...Colts FG 10-7, but then...4TH QUARTER: Jets go on longest drive since I was 6 and Mom made us go to Mystic Seaport (17 plays) and it's Jets back on top...Fast forward to Colts 16-14, Jets in position for 49 yard FG attempt before Caldwell inexplicably calls timeout. Jets can still run down clock, but now get an extra play. 18 yards to Edwards, FG is now chippy, Manning throws up hands and it's not a good time to be Jim Caldwell.
FINAL NOTE: Jets will play better vs. Pats this time around, but Sanchez cannot waste opportunities like this and expect Brady/Belichick to stick around. Looking forward to excellent AFC matchups next week.
PLAY: Ravens -3/ Over 40.5 1ST QUARTER Ravens go 13 plays to the 1. Flacco fumbles, run game non-existent. Chiefs look like AFC version of Seahawks, but hold for FG...KC 3 and out, Ravens driving till Flacco fumbles...Jamaal Charles is the real deal, Top 5 Fantasy pick real, 41 yards for TD- best player/worst supporting cast since Larry Bird took Indiana State to the NCAA Final...TJ Houhmanzadeh sighting for 28, but Ravens bog down, forced into an "over-killing" punt from opponents 40...2ND QUARTER: Charles for 11, Charles for 8, Charles for 9, forget Larry Bird this is a David Robinson at Navy kinda one man show...Charles fumbles, both teams trade punts from opponents territory in what has become the football version of the 4 corners offense...Flacco to Rice for a 9 yard TD with 19 seconds and the Ravens/Over parlay has new life...halftime...3RD QUARTER Nakamura (wasn't that the second city hit by the A-bomb) intercepts Cassel, loses lateral, KC recovers and the Over goes back into hiding...4th and 1, Charles loses 4, colorman Mayock tells us "penetration is the key to stopping the run game", no sh*t...Cundiff 29 yd. FG, KC fumble, Cundiff 29 yd. FG, KC int., Flacco to Boldin TD, Ravens 23-7- it's over, but it's not OVER so we'll stick around...4TH QUARTER: Cassel has to pass, but is having as much success finding Bowe as I do with the toothbrush in the tree in Highlights magazine...Cassel to his #2 WR Kevin Curtis. Kevin "Freakin" Curtis? Dear God what an Under...Ravens go on longer march than Mao, kill 10:20 off clock before McGahee from 25 for TD...We need KC TD for the parlay, Cassel sacked, Cassel incomplete, Cassel sacked, punt- sounds about right...Ravens 30 KC 7.
FINAL THOUGHTS: KC was better than the Seahawks and playing at an equally advantageous home field which should tell you all you need to know about the dominance of the best in the AFC over the best in the NFC...The Ravens running game is like the thong drawer in Rosie O'Donnell's dresser, it doesn't exist. Forget the numbers, most of that was piled up late when the KC defense was on the field constantly and Baltimore had put up a near 2:1 advantage in plays run...Not gonna happen against Pittsburgh and James Harrison's gonna be on Flacco like Jerry Lee Lewis on a cousin. Baltimore's defense better show up big at Heinz Field.
SEA.-N.O.:
NOTE: Alright we were wrong. "Dewey Defeats Truman" wrong. Trickle-Down Economics wrong. Quincy Carter as franchise QB wrong. But the scariest part is how wrong we might be. Seattle faces Chicago this week a team they beat handily at Soldier Field at midseason. Win that and couple it with a completely plausible Green Bay over Atlanta outcome and a 7-9 team could be hosting the NFC Championship game. Do they sell Locust Insurance?
PLAY: Saints -10/Under 47...1ST QUARTER: Brees to Colston for 30, Hartley 26 yd. FG, Saints on top faster than Nathan Lane at Fire Island...Hasselbeck intercepted, Brees to Evans 1 yd. TD and this one's done faster than Minute Rice in the microwave....Seahawks answer with TD, but...2ND QUARTER: Saints drive for a Jones TD. It's still over right?...Roman Harper bites on the Medi-Alert play ("I've fallen and I can't get up") and Hasselbeck to wide open Carlson 17-14 N.O.... Seattle FG ties it then in moment that causes every NY Giant fan to flashback Brandon Stokeley beats Jason Sehorn...er...Roman Harper for a 45 yard score and it's on baby...How bad is Saints S Roman Harper? He's been lit up like Richard Pryor for three huge plays (Carlson TD, Moorah 39-yarder, Stokeley TD) and there's still 5 minutes left in the half...Credit the fans. Crowd noise causing more false starts than the ADHD 100M Dash...Saints get chip shot from Hartley, 24-20 Seahawks...halftime. 3RD QUARTER: Put the parlay in the books as Hasselbeck goes 38 to Mike Williams for TD 3 minutes in...Reggie Bush stinks, yet still looks pissed that Julius Jones is getting playing time...Seattle FG at 5:27, Saints go for it 4th and 1 at own 37 and are stuffed, then miraculously force a punt to stay alive. 4TH QUARTER: Saints get TD and FG and close the gap, problem is they've turned into an episode of Friends where for every Chandler/Joey comedy score the D plays Ross/Rachel and brings you back down...3:22 Marshawn Lynch goes 67 yards like Fred Flintstone carrying the whole Stony Rock team and the worst club in playoff history has dethroned the defending champs.
PHI.-G.B.: PLAY: Philly -2.5/Under 46. 1ST QUARTER: David Akers misses from 41 and the Under's off to a flying start...Desean Jackson's ankle gets rolled like a drunken "John" and Philly's minus 1 major weapon less then 8 minutes in...James Starks comes out of nowhere (U. of Buffalo actually) to give GB a run game...Philly D in the Red Zone is like a balanced breakfast to Karen Carpenter- it means nothing, and Rodgers finds Tom "You Can Call Me Chubsy-Ubsy" Crabtree for 7-0 lead...Announcer calls Jordy Nelson, "crafty, steady", I guess you just can't say "he's white"...GB's James Jones has dropped more balls this year than Michael J. Fox calling Bingo, but holds on off a Rodgers scramble and Philly's in trouble 14-3...And there's Jones calling out B14 on a perfect strike from Rodgers to save our Under just before halftime. 3RD QUARTER: Rodgers fumble, Avant TD and both ends of our parlay are alive 14-10...Rodgers right back to Brandon Jackson and we're in trouble again 21-10...4TH QUARTER: Akers with more shanks than a prison riot and we'll take a split as Philly fans get restless...Starks helps GB eat clock...Vick from 1 yd. makes it 21-16, 2-pt. fails as Akers' wife slips out of stadium quietly...Last chance, but Vick intercepted in end zone looking for Riley "Steady, Crafty" Cooper instead of Jax/Maclin and it's done.
FINAL THOUGHT: Rodgers rocks, add in any semblance of a running game to go with tough D and this team could be peaking at right time.
IND.-NYJ:
PLAY Jets +2.5/Over 44.5. 1ST QUARTER: First impression is that Joseph Addai is slow. Dial up internet slow. Molina brothers slow. Bad Guy/Heel escaping a Steel Cage in Pro Wrestling slow. Let's sign 52 year old Dominic Rhodes off the UFL Florida Tuskers roster slow...LT, on other hand, looks spry going for 23 on the first drive...Shonn Greene also looks fresh, but Sanchez has overthrown Keller more times than a Central American democracy and it's scoreless end of 1...2ND QUARTER: The entire game consists of drives that stall between the 40s and lead to pooch punts. Another disaster for our Over...Finally Manning to Garcon for 57 yds. 7-0 Colts...Jets drive back, but Sanchez intercepted at goal line. This won't fly vs. the Pats...45 seconds and the great Peyton on the field and HC Caldwell runs Rhodes up the middle, more on him later. Halftime...3RD QUARTER: Jets storm out to TD 7-7...Revis has made Reggie Wayne disappear like Spearchucker Jones from M*A*S*H (did they think they'd get away with that). Does he shadow Welker or Branch if Jets advance...Colts FG 10-7, but then...4TH QUARTER: Jets go on longest drive since I was 6 and Mom made us go to Mystic Seaport (17 plays) and it's Jets back on top...Fast forward to Colts 16-14, Jets in position for 49 yard FG attempt before Caldwell inexplicably calls timeout. Jets can still run down clock, but now get an extra play. 18 yards to Edwards, FG is now chippy, Manning throws up hands and it's not a good time to be Jim Caldwell.
FINAL NOTE: Jets will play better vs. Pats this time around, but Sanchez cannot waste opportunities like this and expect Brady/Belichick to stick around. Looking forward to excellent AFC matchups next week.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
One Down...More To Come
Selections: 3-5
Sides: 2-2
Totals: 1-3
Wild Card weekend is over and the Saints, Chiefs, Colts and Eagles have been bounced like Roman Polanski from a Sweet Sixteen. For our part the selections were more David Akers than Marshawn Lynch, but it wasn't a total debacle and hopefully we have a better feel with 15 or so hours of playoff watching under our belt. WC recaps, a Saturday/Sunday lookahead and more nihilistic rantings than Jared Lee Loughner's My Space page up Wednesday night.
Sides: 2-2
Totals: 1-3
Wild Card weekend is over and the Saints, Chiefs, Colts and Eagles have been bounced like Roman Polanski from a Sweet Sixteen. For our part the selections were more David Akers than Marshawn Lynch, but it wasn't a total debacle and hopefully we have a better feel with 15 or so hours of playoff watching under our belt. WC recaps, a Saturday/Sunday lookahead and more nihilistic rantings than Jared Lee Loughner's My Space page up Wednesday night.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Picks Part Deaux
Yesterday: 1-3
Sides: 1-1
Totals: 0-2
This is why I no longer bet, but let's forge ahead anyway. One note- like most people I generally end up over the long run hitting about 50%. In real world gambling terms that's far from good enough because the vig will eat you alive (52.3% is truly break even). But for our "entertainment purposes" here it could lead to some interesting plays in that if I get well under .500 it may be time to jump aboard as my selections even out or if I hit a 4,5 or 6 game win streak it might be beneficial to go against these picks. You decide, but please gamble responsibly (actually I could care less, bet the ranch, it'll be your wife on your ass).
Baltimore -3/40.5
The Ravens are trying to get back to The Big Game for the first time since they won the worst QB matchup in Super Bowl history (Trent Dilfer vs. Kerry Collins) outside of SB XVII, Joe Theismann vs. David Woodley (it could've been Woodley vs. Montana, Unitas or "Slingin" Sammy Baugh- he was just that bad http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WoodDa00.htm). The Chiefs are very tough at home, but have played a super soft schedule and are extremely young. The Ravens defense is not the total shut down unit from several years back, but it's still tough. Offensively they've found more balance of late after forgetting about the versatile Ray Rice for stretches early in the year. In his 3rd season Joe Flacco is playoff seasoned with wins at N.E., Mia. and Ten. already under his belt. The Chiefs are still building, the Ravens are there already so we'll say Baltimore and Over and if the number is 3.5 "buy the hook" (if you have to ask what that means you probably shouldn't be wagering).
Philadelphia -2.5/46.5
I'm no Chippendale Dancer, in fact these days I'm more like a Chip-A-Hoy Dancer, but I'm sorry Andy Reid is FAT! He's also an excellent coach who probably won't truly be recognized for his genius until he wins a Super Bowl. Not sure if this is the year, but he does have some excellent weapons in Michael Vick, D-Jax, Maclin and McCoy. Is there enough D? It's hard to say, but the NFC heirarchy looks considerably weaker than the AFC's so the Eagles have a good chance. Mike McCarthy can also coach up some offense and Aaron Rodgers is a flat-out stud who should be Top 5 in every Fantasy draft due to his remarkable consistency. That said the Pack seems too one-dimensional with no ground game to speak of while "Ron Mexico's Kennel Club" (I played in a Fantasy league that featured that name plus "Tom Cable's Fight Club" and "My Dinner With Dahmer") can move the ball in a myriad of ways. How 'bout Philly and Under and let's call it a day.
Andy Reid: The next generations Wilfred Brimley.
Sides: 1-1
Totals: 0-2
This is why I no longer bet, but let's forge ahead anyway. One note- like most people I generally end up over the long run hitting about 50%. In real world gambling terms that's far from good enough because the vig will eat you alive (52.3% is truly break even). But for our "entertainment purposes" here it could lead to some interesting plays in that if I get well under .500 it may be time to jump aboard as my selections even out or if I hit a 4,5 or 6 game win streak it might be beneficial to go against these picks. You decide, but please gamble responsibly (actually I could care less, bet the ranch, it'll be your wife on your ass).
Baltimore -3/40.5
The Ravens are trying to get back to The Big Game for the first time since they won the worst QB matchup in Super Bowl history (Trent Dilfer vs. Kerry Collins) outside of SB XVII, Joe Theismann vs. David Woodley (it could've been Woodley vs. Montana, Unitas or "Slingin" Sammy Baugh- he was just that bad http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WoodDa00.htm). The Chiefs are very tough at home, but have played a super soft schedule and are extremely young. The Ravens defense is not the total shut down unit from several years back, but it's still tough. Offensively they've found more balance of late after forgetting about the versatile Ray Rice for stretches early in the year. In his 3rd season Joe Flacco is playoff seasoned with wins at N.E., Mia. and Ten. already under his belt. The Chiefs are still building, the Ravens are there already so we'll say Baltimore and Over and if the number is 3.5 "buy the hook" (if you have to ask what that means you probably shouldn't be wagering).
Philadelphia -2.5/46.5
I'm no Chippendale Dancer, in fact these days I'm more like a Chip-A-Hoy Dancer, but I'm sorry Andy Reid is FAT! He's also an excellent coach who probably won't truly be recognized for his genius until he wins a Super Bowl. Not sure if this is the year, but he does have some excellent weapons in Michael Vick, D-Jax, Maclin and McCoy. Is there enough D? It's hard to say, but the NFC heirarchy looks considerably weaker than the AFC's so the Eagles have a good chance. Mike McCarthy can also coach up some offense and Aaron Rodgers is a flat-out stud who should be Top 5 in every Fantasy draft due to his remarkable consistency. That said the Pack seems too one-dimensional with no ground game to speak of while "Ron Mexico's Kennel Club" (I played in a Fantasy league that featured that name plus "Tom Cable's Fight Club" and "My Dinner With Dahmer") can move the ball in a myriad of ways. How 'bout Philly and Under and let's call it a day.
Andy Reid: The next generations Wilfred Brimley.
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Kansas City Chiefs
NOTE: This is the first in our playoff team previews. New York Jets post up Monday night. Selections up Friday. Recaps of all games next week. Thanks for reading.
GENERAL: The history of the Chiefs is a story of feast or famine, a series of brief periods of success surrounded by more bad runs than a Cholera epidemic. Whether this current incarnation is in the midst of Darfur or dinner at Kirstie Alley's house is hard to tell yet, as we'll show, but for better or worse they're back in the playoff picture for the first time in 4 years and that's an accomplishment in itself.
The Chiefs began their franchise life not in KC or even the NFL, but as the Dallas Texans of the AFL, a league that if those old NFL Films videos tell us anything was a place that never saw a no-look, over the shoulder lateral it didn't like. However, with the population of Dallas unable to support two teams owner and AFL founder Lamar Hunt moved the squad to the BBQ capital of the Midwest in 1963 and changed them to the Chiefs thereby saving the league from the Canadian Football League's longtime "Roughriders" debacle where two teams have the same nickname (who owned the second Roughrider franchise, Raymond Babbitt- "yeah definitely have to name the team Roughriders, definitely Roughriders"). At that point the Hank Stram-led club was, like Jimmy Cagney in White Heat, on top of the world having just won the AFL Championship in 1962. The good times would roll through their appearance, along with that giant papier mache Chief player, in Super Bowl I before culminating with their first NFL Championship upon beating the Vikings in SB IV.
From there, though, the oil tank proceeded to blow them sky high as Stram lost the magic, Marv Levy was prematurely ejected after the '82 strike season and John Mackovic, a coach so mild-mannered he could make Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Jimmy_Carter#.22Malaise.22_speech) look like something out of Knute Rockne: All-American, bolted back to college after leading the team to its first playoff appearance in 15 years in 1986. Then after a two-year brain fart known as Frank Gansz the postseason-challenged Marty Schottenheimer took over and led the club to extra games in 7 of the next 9 seasons. But after losing twice in their first playoff game after 13-3 seasons the players, fans and management soured on "The Schott". The Chiefs would then see the postseason only twice in the next 12 years before coach Todd Haley and GM Scott Pioli got their chance to right the ship in 2009.
OFFENSE: When Todd Haley left his Offensive Coordinator job at Arizona to take the coaching reins here he found more holes to fill than the Times crossword at Heidi and Spencer's house. Going from Kurt Warner/LarryFitzgerald/Anquan Boldin to Tyler Thigpen/Dwayne Bowe/Mark Bradley was kinda like going from Kim Kardashian to Khloe without even getting a roll with Kourtney along the way, but still he persevered. Ostensibly the QB of the future here was expected to be Brodie Croyle, but like Scarlett Johansson's supposed super hotness, Pioli and Haley just weren't getting it. Unfortunately the best free agent QB on the market was Matt Cassel who in his entire college career and first three seasons as a pro threw less passes than Mike Ditka on a gay singles cruise (79 in 7 years) before breaking out due to Tom Brady's injury in 2008. After stumbling in Year 1 Cassel found his Game Manager groove in 2010, not throwing often or for many yards (ranked 29 and 28 respectively), but developing a game more efficient (27/5 TD/Int. ratio) than a Smart Car if only slightly prettier.
The real engine driving this team is their top ranked running game paced by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. Actually it's mostly paced by Charles with his 1300+ yards and ridiculous 6.4 yard average. And that's after starting the year as backup to Jones in the biggest injustice since Milli Vanilli won a Grammy in 1989 (I blamed it on the rain, but that's just me). If the ground game is going it opens things up for Dwayne Bowe who thrilled many an unsuspecting Fantasy owner this year by bouncing back from an injury/issue filled 2009 with a 1000 yard/15 TD effort this year. The rest (Moeaki/Chambers/McCluster) is just filler. Still against a schedule so soft that Boise State has tried to lock it in for next year the new Chiefs offense was in the Top 12 in points, but whether they can function at that level against the Jets or the Ravens is still to be seen.
DEFENSE: In keeping with the aforementioned theme the Chiefs defense improved greatly in 2010, but the question remains if those improvements were legit or a scheduling mirage. The development of young, highly touted players like Tamba Hali, Glenn Dorsey, Javon Belcher and rookie Eric Berry plus the return of LB Derrick Johnson from injury suggests the former, however a perusal of the skeds from the last two years raises some doubts. In terms of points and yards allowed K.C. went from the 30th ranked D in 2009 to #10 this year while gaining 6 wins, a seemingly significant improvement. However, according to Pro Football Reference the Chiefs faced one of the weakest schedules in 2010, including matchups with the NFL's version of the Sun Belt Conference- the NFC West- after having played a middle of the pack slate in 2009. In fact the whole thing may be the biggest house of cards this side of Madoff Investments as in the past two years Todd Haley's Comets have gone 2-6 versus playoff teams with those wins coming at the hands of 7-9 Seattle in 2010 and the Steelers in a 2009 overtime game in which they were outgained 516-282. In the 6 losses to playoffs teams they were outscored by an average of 18.2 ppg.
All this bodes poorly for a deep playoff run except for the fact that by virtue of winning their division the Chiefs get at least 1 home game in a stadium where they went a dominant 7-1 this year. As hostile environments go Arrowhead Stadium is considered only slightly less dangerous for visiting teams than the Double Deuce Roadhouse before Patrick Swazye's Dalton showed up. So even if it's one and done K.C. fans will at least get to exercise their vocal chords and, hey, it beats hell out of the Todd Blackledge era any day.
I pulled a hammy...and a few other things, just looking at this picture.
GENERAL: The history of the Chiefs is a story of feast or famine, a series of brief periods of success surrounded by more bad runs than a Cholera epidemic. Whether this current incarnation is in the midst of Darfur or dinner at Kirstie Alley's house is hard to tell yet, as we'll show, but for better or worse they're back in the playoff picture for the first time in 4 years and that's an accomplishment in itself.
The Chiefs began their franchise life not in KC or even the NFL, but as the Dallas Texans of the AFL, a league that if those old NFL Films videos tell us anything was a place that never saw a no-look, over the shoulder lateral it didn't like. However, with the population of Dallas unable to support two teams owner and AFL founder Lamar Hunt moved the squad to the BBQ capital of the Midwest in 1963 and changed them to the Chiefs thereby saving the league from the Canadian Football League's longtime "Roughriders" debacle where two teams have the same nickname (who owned the second Roughrider franchise, Raymond Babbitt- "yeah definitely have to name the team Roughriders, definitely Roughriders"). At that point the Hank Stram-led club was, like Jimmy Cagney in White Heat, on top of the world having just won the AFL Championship in 1962. The good times would roll through their appearance, along with that giant papier mache Chief player, in Super Bowl I before culminating with their first NFL Championship upon beating the Vikings in SB IV.
From there, though, the oil tank proceeded to blow them sky high as Stram lost the magic, Marv Levy was prematurely ejected after the '82 strike season and John Mackovic, a coach so mild-mannered he could make Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Jimmy_Carter#.22Malaise.22_speech) look like something out of Knute Rockne: All-American, bolted back to college after leading the team to its first playoff appearance in 15 years in 1986. Then after a two-year brain fart known as Frank Gansz the postseason-challenged Marty Schottenheimer took over and led the club to extra games in 7 of the next 9 seasons. But after losing twice in their first playoff game after 13-3 seasons the players, fans and management soured on "The Schott". The Chiefs would then see the postseason only twice in the next 12 years before coach Todd Haley and GM Scott Pioli got their chance to right the ship in 2009.
OFFENSE: When Todd Haley left his Offensive Coordinator job at Arizona to take the coaching reins here he found more holes to fill than the Times crossword at Heidi and Spencer's house. Going from Kurt Warner/LarryFitzgerald/Anquan Boldin to Tyler Thigpen/Dwayne Bowe/Mark Bradley was kinda like going from Kim Kardashian to Khloe without even getting a roll with Kourtney along the way, but still he persevered. Ostensibly the QB of the future here was expected to be Brodie Croyle, but like Scarlett Johansson's supposed super hotness, Pioli and Haley just weren't getting it. Unfortunately the best free agent QB on the market was Matt Cassel who in his entire college career and first three seasons as a pro threw less passes than Mike Ditka on a gay singles cruise (79 in 7 years) before breaking out due to Tom Brady's injury in 2008. After stumbling in Year 1 Cassel found his Game Manager groove in 2010, not throwing often or for many yards (ranked 29 and 28 respectively), but developing a game more efficient (27/5 TD/Int. ratio) than a Smart Car if only slightly prettier.
The real engine driving this team is their top ranked running game paced by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. Actually it's mostly paced by Charles with his 1300+ yards and ridiculous 6.4 yard average. And that's after starting the year as backup to Jones in the biggest injustice since Milli Vanilli won a Grammy in 1989 (I blamed it on the rain, but that's just me). If the ground game is going it opens things up for Dwayne Bowe who thrilled many an unsuspecting Fantasy owner this year by bouncing back from an injury/issue filled 2009 with a 1000 yard/15 TD effort this year. The rest (Moeaki/Chambers/McCluster) is just filler. Still against a schedule so soft that Boise State has tried to lock it in for next year the new Chiefs offense was in the Top 12 in points, but whether they can function at that level against the Jets or the Ravens is still to be seen.
DEFENSE: In keeping with the aforementioned theme the Chiefs defense improved greatly in 2010, but the question remains if those improvements were legit or a scheduling mirage. The development of young, highly touted players like Tamba Hali, Glenn Dorsey, Javon Belcher and rookie Eric Berry plus the return of LB Derrick Johnson from injury suggests the former, however a perusal of the skeds from the last two years raises some doubts. In terms of points and yards allowed K.C. went from the 30th ranked D in 2009 to #10 this year while gaining 6 wins, a seemingly significant improvement. However, according to Pro Football Reference the Chiefs faced one of the weakest schedules in 2010, including matchups with the NFL's version of the Sun Belt Conference- the NFC West- after having played a middle of the pack slate in 2009. In fact the whole thing may be the biggest house of cards this side of Madoff Investments as in the past two years Todd Haley's Comets have gone 2-6 versus playoff teams with those wins coming at the hands of 7-9 Seattle in 2010 and the Steelers in a 2009 overtime game in which they were outgained 516-282. In the 6 losses to playoffs teams they were outscored by an average of 18.2 ppg.
All this bodes poorly for a deep playoff run except for the fact that by virtue of winning their division the Chiefs get at least 1 home game in a stadium where they went a dominant 7-1 this year. As hostile environments go Arrowhead Stadium is considered only slightly less dangerous for visiting teams than the Double Deuce Roadhouse before Patrick Swazye's Dalton showed up. So even if it's one and done K.C. fans will at least get to exercise their vocal chords and, hey, it beats hell out of the Todd Blackledge era any day.
I pulled a hammy...and a few other things, just looking at this picture.
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