One For My Horses...Snoopy And Prickly Pete

    RIP to Cream bassist Jack Bruce who passed away at age 71. I once played "Tales of Brave Ulysses" for a gym full of 5th graders and 3 heads exploded. A true psychedelic rock God...

Considering the copious drugs it too to write tunes like "Anyone for Tennis" or lines like "...but the rainbow had a beard!" it's amazing he lasted this long really.

 

    Is anyone else getting a visual of Jerry Jones in his luxury box screaming today like a frustrated Sheldon Cooper of The Big Bang Theory..."WEE-DON!!" But time for this...

 

SIDES (21-17): Tampa Bay +7.0; Houston +2.5; Jets +8.5; Arizona +1.5; Minnesota -1.0

 

TOTALS (33-20-2): Was./Min. Over 44.0; T.B./Cle. Under 44.0; Phi./Hou. Under 48.0; S.D./Mia. Under 45.0; ST.L./S.F. Over 44.0; Bal./Pit. Under 47.0

 

A bit dog-ish, a tad under-ish...they are what they are...

 

Another Day, No More Dollars

    Losing out on one winner due to a Pick 6 in the last 20 seconds (Den./NYJ) is heartbreaking. Losing out on 3 winners because of a second Pick 6 in the final 20 seconds is kinda like being in prison in New Hampshire and having to stamp out "Live Free Or Die" on license plates all day...It's cruel and unusual. We went from 7-6 or 6-6-1 to 4-8-1 sadly.

    The system we used is Value-based which is why we are often contrarian to public handicappers. This week there are quite a few contrarian plays, but we are concerned the method may be understating the ineffectiveness of QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Charlie Whitehurst (oh, it thinks they're bad, but maybe unable to fathom just how bad). To date we are 39-29-1 overall. Let's see how today plays out before we start tweaking the parts. Here they are...

SIDES (15-13): Oakland +3.5; Minnesota +6.5; Tennessee +6.0; Cincinnati +3.5; Miami +3.0

TOTALS (24-16-1): Ten./Was. Under 46.5; N.O./Det. Over 46.5; Mia./Chi. Under 48.0; Atl./Bal. Under 50.0; Cle./Jac. Over 44.5; Cin./Ind. Under 50.5; Min./Buf. Over 43.5; NYG/Dal. Over 47.0

Do as you wish with these...

Medically Correct...Morally Bankrupt-NFL Notes Week 11

--Friday was "Pajama Day" at school an event replete with so many kids wandering around in bathrobes and slippers that I felt like not so much a teacher as an orderly at a mental institution...I mean more so than usual. My request, however, to get on the PA and in a sing-song voice announce, "Medication Time", like R.P. McMurphy in One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest was rejected not so much for being inappropriate as for the confusion it would cause since we already have 3 unannounced Medication Times every day. But yes people should work harder/longer to get ahead...the "Twelve Hours A Day Of Daycare" Generation is what's gonna make this country great again...sorry, I'm done now.

--Now I know Penny's supposed to be the looker on Big Bang Theory, but has Bernadette filled out rather nicely this season...and while we're at it did Brandi from Storage Wars get a boob job...and who else watches all the way through the intro to Modern Family just so they could see the oldest daughter in that short skirt and calf-high boots...and what's with the fiancee girl on Terms of Engagement? Is she hot? Is she fat? It's hard to te...Dear God, maybe these educational experts are right. We do need a Voucher System...

NFL NOTES
--Sometimes you can be too smart. For example Ritz Crackers boxes of the 1970's used to feature on the back a recipe for something called "Mock Apple Pie". This was a traditional-style pie made with all the usual ingredients except apples. Instead one substituted Ritz Crackers...naturally.
    Now going from using sweet, juicy apples to salty, crunchy crackers and putting together a tasty replica of the real thing is certainly a stunning feat of neurological gymnastics, but instead of being impressed I was generally left thinking what if this person had put his mind to something important, like say, finding a cure for cancer or coming up with a sign you could use to alert people their turn signal's been on for 17 miles (the middle finger doesn't have the effect I'd hoped it would) instead.
    Last week  Atlanta HC Mike Smith decided to go for it on 4th and 1 from his own 30 in OT and though the failure sealed a loss for the Falcons Football Sabermetricians, who have long been touting research that says teams should go for it on 4th and short far more often than they do, came out of the woodwork to defend him. And while I'm all for innovation and inventiveness I think this may be an overreach. Going back to the early 2000's sabermetric founder Bill James proposed a fluid, non-defined bullpen system that the Red Sox adopted and abandoned after half a season. The problem was not so much ineffectiveness as it was complaints from players who preferred having a defined role.
    In football the offense's role is to get first downs. When they fail the special team's role is to flip the field position and the defense's job is to stop the opponent. Last Sunday Smith made his offense everything and played down the roles of his special teams and defense. Over a 162 game season you might be able to weather these storms and wait for regression to prove you right. Over 16 games even a short string of failures of this nature can destroy confidence and lead to dissension. It's only one game and Smith has built up plenty of points in the lockerroom since replacing Bobby Petrino so he should be able to survive this gaffe. But sometimes we need less Mock Apple Pies in the world and more easier opening ways to package, goddamned, cream cheese...

Maybe I was too hard on Mock Apple Pie...I mean sometimes fake is just better.

--I'm gonna Occupy My Couch before I ever consider Occupy(ing) Wall Street, but let's face facts a lot of rich people are just Dicks. For example the sweater tied around the neck old guy who dropped his keys at the supermarket and when I went to hand them back said, "thanks, I'll need those for my BMW." At which point I held them up by the tiny Super Saver card and said, "yeah and you'll need this to save 3 cents on peas...Asswipe." OK, maybe not that last part, but hey when did they remove the "c" with a line through it cents symbol anyway.
    Oh yeah the point...this kind of attitude it what makes it easy to see the Washington Redskins perpetually fail. Daniel Snyder looks like a little Napoleonic-complexed ass and the way he has jerked around this fantastic fan base while throwing money around to provide false hope pretty much bears it out.
    So here's a tip...get a friggin' QB. Since he took over in 1999 the roster of signal callers here has barely shown any planning or foresight toward what is obviously the most critical position on the field. The lineup of starters includes the Over-The-Hill gang (well into their 30's at the time) of Brad Johnson, Jeff George, Mark Brunell and Donovan McNabb; the low or undrafted trio of Danny Wuerffel, Shane Matthews and Tim Hasselbeck; and the over-drafted tandem of Patrick Ramsey and Jason Campbell plus this year's train wreck that is Rex Grossman and John Beck.
    So for an owner who once had his vendors sell beer in the bathrooms and bags of peanuts he got at an auction for the bankrupt Imperial Airlines quit cutting corners where it's important only to piss money away on the Albert Haynesworth's of the world. After all a bunch of fat guys in flower print dresses and pig noses deserve better.

This is our 4th Redskin Cheerleader of the year...which says at least Daniel Snyder hasn't skimped on the silicone.

--If you need a stat to define why the Eagles are not the Dream Team they were billed as here it is: Last week the Arizona Cardinals threw 40 passes. On 16 of those Nnandi Asomugha matched up in single coverage with Larry Fitzgerald resulting in two targets for no completions. On the other 24 attempts Fitzgerald caught 7 passes for 146 yards and two TDs.
    Years of watching Steve Smith put up monster numbers all by himself in Carolina has confirmed, as has Phil Simms in his book Sunday Morning Quarterback, that there is no such thing as Double Coverage, as we know it from the school yard, in the NFL. Still the least you could do is have your high-priced shutdown corner shadowing your opponents biggest threat instead of standing out in space waiting for lead-footed Tight Ends like Jeff King to run through his area.
    Certainly the Iggles have regressed some on offense this year particularly in the passing game, but that was to be expected to a degree after a Top 3 performance in 2010. The signing of Asomugha, however, should have freed up the safeties and LBs to play a more agressive game that could have offset the down tick on O. Instead Philly is 12 takeaways off last year's pace and ranks 29th in the league in TD passes allowed. That's a lot of cheese steaks spent on a player for that kind of return, but hey Andy Reid and Defensive Coordinator Juan Castillo's bond is one that'll last a lifetime...and you can't put a price on friendship.

--Fred's Pick (3-3-1) today is Chicago -4 over San Diego. We concur, but wish we didn't have to as the mess in Charger-land has made the idea of the Broncos stealing the AFC West a distinct possibility and that means Tebow Time, All The Time for sports media everywhere. K.C. looks done what with having to start a QB who actually couldn't beat out Matt Cassell for the rest of the year and Oakland seems to be, as my Grandmother used to say, like Shit...they're all over the place. Today they go to Minny for a big one since up coming matchups with potential playoff squads Green Bay, Chicago and Detroit could be dicey. Carson Palmer's improvement last week and continuing familiarity with the offense does bode well for the Raiders. However, if they should falter and Phillip Rivers can't find his old self soon the press might have us believing the name on the back of those controversial Tebow jerseys shouldn't be "Jesus", but "God".

--As for us we're gonna try the Falcons to bounce back from last week's emotional loss (Hell it worked for freakin' Penn State yesterday) laying 6.5 to Tennessee in the confines of the Georgia Dome. We've already gone on about Matt Ryan's success at home vs. on the road and last week mentioned Tennessee seems a suspect 5-4 with a vunerability on the road and recent results results give us value at under a TD and even down to -6 in some places. I'm still sick so that's all while I'm off to self-medicate 12 fluid ounces at a time.

Finally, let's class this thing up a bit...Enjoy the games!

Springboard...Sex Romp (NFL Notes-Week4)

    If idiocy had a slogan it would be, "There's Always Something There To Remind You". This week's version comes courtesy of the TV show The Office and the hallways of my school where apparently "Planking" is still alive. But as I told my students if you think you're being innovative and camp forget about it. In college we "planked" all the time only then we called it "Passing Out"...so get over yourself.

    But if that's not enough yesterday in NYC they held "A Slut Walk Against Sexual Assault". Seriously...and I know, how do I get on the mailing list? For the uninitiated hundreds of women dressed in lingerie and bikinis paraded through the streets of Greenwich Village carrying signs reading "End Rape and Rape Culture". I couldn't agree more, but is this really the way to go about it? It reminds me of the women with implants and low cut tops who are disgusted when the toothless guy pushing a shopping cart stares at them. I'm sure you were aiming your cleavage at the guy in the Armani suit, driving the BMW, but it ain't no Smartbomb. There's bound to be some collateral damage so quit complaining or button up.

    On a bright note, however, the Atlanta Brave and Boston Red Sox 2011 Playoff T-shirts arrived on the Gold Coast today much to the delight of Senegalese children throughout the country.

NFL

--N.Y. Giant fans this week had fun at the expense of Michael Vick who claimed in his postgame presser that the refs weren't protecting him like other QBs in the league. Vick believes his mobility and athleticism causes him to be treated differently. More like a RB than a pocket passer ala Brady or Brees. There may be some validity to this claim, but don't expect any sympathy. A convicted felon, in the past Mike has complained about fan attention (where have you gone Ron Mexico?), his dog fighting sentence, his contracts, his coaches and so on. Or as pro wrestling manager Jim Cornette used to say, "if this guy was screwed as often as he claims he'd have struck oil".
    So here's an idea, if they're going to treat you like a RB then run. Last week Vick passed up 3 opportunities to run for a first down in favor of throwing upfield across his body. In addition the Eagles were stopped at least 4 times on short yardage without one bootleg or run/pass option rollout attempted. Sure you can throw, but the tremendous run threat that comes with it is what makes you elite. Standing stock-still in the pocket as the rush has time to close in around you is like Garth Brooks chucking country music to be a moody, rock star...er...ah...well don't pull a Chris Gaines, that's always solid advice.

H.L. Mencken it's not, but still poignant. And they wonder why newspapers are going the way of the Dodo?

--Speaking of the Eagles short yardage offense the choice of Andy Reid to go for it on 4th and 1 from midfield with a 16-14 lead and 13 minutes to go is questionable enough, but the idea that the play call in that situation was a straight ahead run to McCoy makes it ridiculous. On the drive prior the Iggles drove 88 yards to a 1st and goal inside the Giants one and on 3 running plays between the tackles lost a yard and kicked the FG. If you didn't have a more imaginative play call than one similiar to the previous failures punt. Reid and OC Marty Morninwheg certainly have years more play calling experience than I'll ever have, but just because a Harvard PHD in Math tells me 2 + 2 = 5 doesn't mean I have to believe him.

--Still that 4th down decision is nowhere near as bad as the one made by the man who replaced BTK killer look-a-like Brad Childress, Vikings HC Leslie Frazier. With 11 minutes left and leading by 3 Fraz decided to go for it on 4th and 1 from the Lions 17. To this point the Vikes had rushed for less than 100 yards and 39 of that had come on trick-eration to Percy Harvin. Still Minny OC Bill Musgrave went with a play call so vanilla it made beige shrug and the FB dive to Toby Gearhart was stuffed for no gain. Alright maybe using Peterson as a decoy showed some imagination, but the bigger issue is turning down the chip shot FG.
    Today's NFL talking heads like to use basketball terminology and deem any lead of 8 points or less a "one possession game." This is overly simplistic. Without breaking out some esoteric numbers we all know that getting into FG range is far easier than getting in the end zone. Thus a 1-3 point lead is really more like a "half possession game" for lack of a better term while a 4-8 point lead is "one possession". By kicking the FG Frazier would've pushed the score from half to one possession territory. Additionally if the high powered Detroit offense came back and scored a TD Minny would be down 1 or "half" a possession as opposed to 4 and a "full" possession. I've rambled on too long and there's a lot more to the discussion, but I do think the "half" vs. "full" possession designation has merit so use it whenever you can...it'll be our "thing"...or not.

--And like another commercial for a Zooey Deschanel or Whitney Cummings comedy can we get rid of the Wildcat already. It stopped working years ago, but teams still insist on trotting it out 3-4 times a week despite what is probably a less than 25% success ratio. The problem is that unless you have a guy like ex-Jet/current Bill Brad Smith who can legit pass the Wildcat actually limits your options instead of expanding them. The defense sees a Mark Sanchez or Chad Henne awkwardly trot out to a flanker position, adjust to the formation and attack the run lanes immediately. Thus the Wildcat relies on the element of surprise and four years removed from it's adoption that's gone. Conversely the shotgun offense, which was resurrected by Tom Landry in the '80's, continues to thrive and is used more than ever in today's game because it opens up your options (run, pass, rollout) and keeps the defense from over-committing.

Actually in this instance I'd prefer not to be in the Shotgun.

--In a new feature my friend Fred, an itinerant gambler from back in the days when you went to the local Thoroughbred or Harness track, bet a race and then sat around for 30 minutes taking in the smell of horse crap and body odor until the next wagering opportunity came along, has proclaimed Curtis Painter the "worst NFL QB he's ever seen" (Ryan Leaf  and JaMarcus Russell excepted I assume) making his Pick of the Week: Tampa Bay -10.5 on Monday night.

--George Carlin once said that "twat" qualifies as a dirty word because it has no other possible meaning or in other words, "Twat's twat and that's that!" Similiarly bettors like to play the Over when betting totals because it's never definitively Under until the final seconds tick off, but when it's Over, it's Over. Nonetheless we have spotted a trend that indicates that quality teams will score no matter the opponent, but poor teams struggle vs. even the most inept defenses. Last week both New Orleans and New England played games that vaulted over Totals in the mid-50s, but games between lower tier teams like Carolina/Jacksonville and Cleveland/Miami struggled to reach the 30s. The key to the Under is not stopping teams cold, that rarely happens in today's NFL, it's turning TDs into FGs and botching potential scoring drives. None of the teams in the aforementioned lower tier games has a great defense, but their opponents struggled so mightily in the Red Zone and settled for FGs so often that the games turned into "wars of attrition" to see which side could win the field position and time of possession battle and sneak out with a win. If you're buying into this today's "weak sister" matchups and potential Under plays look like St.L/Was. 44, Cle./Ten. (throw out the records) 38.5 and Min./K.C. 40. Like they say on Cinemax, "discretion is advised".

--As for our selection of the day we're going to try St. Louis +3 over Washington. John Gruden may have hit on the key to Rex Grossman Monday night when he pointed out R-Gro (I'm starting something, give it a chance) was much better throwing to the middle of the field than to the sidelines due to lack of arm strength. Keep an eye on this going forward, but for now we're thinking letdown after a Monday Night heartbreaker and now going on the road.

No reason...but your welcome!

My Doctor says I'm not getting enough hops in my diet so time to rectify that. Follow us here, on Twitter at "sprtcom102" or at "Bowling Til' It Hurts" on Facebook. Nihilism...it's my last hope!

And as always the old school wrestling humor with Piper, Magnum TA, Bundy & more is under the "Crimson Mask" titles and the Diva editions with Sunny, Precious, Elizabeth & Sable are under "Seminal Sluts". Women of ESPN joshing is at "Something in the Way She Says Gamecocks" and Rex Ryan foot fetish & N.Y. Met bashing is under the obvious headings.