Another Day, No More Dollars

    Losing out on one winner due to a Pick 6 in the last 20 seconds (Den./NYJ) is heartbreaking. Losing out on 3 winners because of a second Pick 6 in the final 20 seconds is kinda like being in prison in New Hampshire and having to stamp out "Live Free Or Die" on license plates all day...It's cruel and unusual. We went from 7-6 or 6-6-1 to 4-8-1 sadly.

    The system we used is Value-based which is why we are often contrarian to public handicappers. This week there are quite a few contrarian plays, but we are concerned the method may be understating the ineffectiveness of QBs Teddy Bridgewater and Charlie Whitehurst (oh, it thinks they're bad, but maybe unable to fathom just how bad). To date we are 39-29-1 overall. Let's see how today plays out before we start tweaking the parts. Here they are...

SIDES (15-13): Oakland +3.5; Minnesota +6.5; Tennessee +6.0; Cincinnati +3.5; Miami +3.0

TOTALS (24-16-1): Ten./Was. Under 46.5; N.O./Det. Over 46.5; Mia./Chi. Under 48.0; Atl./Bal. Under 50.0; Cle./Jac. Over 44.5; Cin./Ind. Under 50.5; Min./Buf. Over 43.5; NYG/Dal. Over 47.0

Do as you wish with these...

Notes While Having Tea With The Tillerman (NFL-Week 6)

**UPDATE: We forgot to list one final play...Washington +5.0. Apologies...

You don't wanna hear my usual crap...so on to the picks...

SIDES (13-9): Tampa Bay +3.5; Pittsburgh +2.0; Oakland +7.0; Tennessee -4.0; New England -1.0

TOTALS (22-12-1): Det./Min. Over 43.0; Den./NYJ Under 48.0; Jac./Ten. Over 42.0; Was./Ari. Under 47.0; NYG/Phi. Under 50.0; Bal./T.B. Under 44.0; Chi./Atl. Under 55.5

That's it. Lots of Unders so get that clock windmill-ing arm ready! Luck...

Proud To Be An A$$hole From El Paso

    Will be keeping this short today after the Mexican Restaurant romp with colleagues last night. Let's just say I'm outta drinking shape for anything but beer. In fact the last time I did tequila shots and margaritas I ended up professing my undying love for the middle Hanson sibling only to find out later they were all brothers. And when did margaritas go the way of the traditional martini? Everyone they served me last night was so colorful, exotically flavored and glittery it looked like they tapped it out of Lady Gaga's ass. But who am I to complain...and moving on to some ancillary matters...

--Has A&E finally just given up and become the Storage Wars channel? It reminds me of the early days of the History Channel or as they should've called it back then-"Nazis 24/7". And if you're gonna go this way could we at least get less of fat ass Darrell in his wife-beater and more of Brandi in something low cut?

--To those who asked about it from yesterday's post it is true that Chaz Bono is shopping for a penis, but no he/she did not get it yet. My first thoughts on reading this were doesn't John Bobbitt have an extra one laying around? And secondly...are balls sold seperately?

--And finally enjoy the Bowl Game tonight...No not the National Championship game between LSU and Alabama, that's tomorrow, but the much anticipated GoDaddy.com Bowl featuring those bastions of gridiron greatness Northern Illinois and Arkansas State (see our bowl related Curse of Northern Illinois article here http://bowltilithurts.blogspot.com/2010/12/humanitarian-bowl-preview.html). Having these ridiculous 5th tier bowl games after the Rose, Orange, Sugar and Fiesta Bowls reminds me of the old Dana Gould bit about how the Larry King Live show used to feature two guests. They'd always put the top billed one on first as to not run short of time if the interview was going particularly well so that in the opening King would announce, "tonight's guests are Alexander Solzhitsnetzyn, the Pulitzer and Nobel Prize winning author who saw his entire family killed by the KGB then spent 19 years in a Soviet Gulag...and the man who played Fleagle on The Banana Splits." Enjoy the game...and, oh yeah, it's Arkansas State -1.5/65 if you want to try to at least make it interesting.

NFL
--In a disclaimer we'll point out that much like the rest of the year our official play on Houston/Cincinnati Under lost, but our analysis of a Saints dominated shootout and N.O/Over play was a winner. Today we'll just throw all the plays out there and you can judge for yourself.

--Disclaimer II: Fred of Fred's Picks texted, in light of his 4 game losing streak, "I abdicate my position much like Kaiser Wilhelm the 2nd!" I assume this means there will be no selection today...as to whether he'll also be exiling himself to The Netherlands, however, is unclear at this point.

--Pittsburgh at Denver: Talk is that this game could be make or break for the Grand Tim Tebow Experiment after two extraordinarily dismal performances to end the year. For those who have tried to forget I'll remind you that in Week 16 at Buffalo Tebow became the biggest turnover machine since Dave Krieg and his tiny, Vietnamese girl hands were fumbling away games  for Chuck Knox's Seahawks of the 90's. This was followed by a Week 17 disaster with the playoffs on the line where Timmy put up a 20.1 QB rating which is even harder than it seems in that much like filling in your name correctly on the SAT you get 18.0 points for just stepping on the field.
    All in all though we were big supporters of giving Tebow a chance. The Broncos are improving in many areas with the emergence of Von Miller on defense and Demaryius Thomas at WR, but they're still a safe distance from Super. Leaving Kyle Orton or some other middle of the road veteran out there while the highly drafted Tebow languished on the bench would be like the Kansas City Royals signing Jamie Moyer. What would be the point? Let the kid play and sink or swim on his own.
    So did he sink or did he swim? That's the problem. Kudos to the Broncos for tweaking the offense to play to Tebow's strengths, but things may have gone too far. An easy sked and inept performances by their opponents in the latter half of the season allowed the Denver offensive staff to put Tebow in a bubble for several weeks as they ran the ball ad nauseum and only let TT pass in late, desperate situations against loose, prevent defenses. Sure it all worked out in a playoff berth, but in terms of truly evaluating their unique QB the Broncos struck out.
    In the end it's obvious Tebow needs to show at least some vertical threat in order to keep defenses honest and allow the spread option game to work. That means again re-working the offense, giving Tebow plenty of game speed reps in that offense, constant re-evaluation of mechanics/decision making and a willingness to risk losing some games in order to get answers. Sure it might all work out in the end, but like being married, to say, Sharon Stone...it sounds like a lotta work. We expect GM Elway to be QB shopping in the offseason for someone of a more conventional bent.
    As for the game the question remains...How will Denver possibly score today? They have put up more than two TDs only twice in Tebow's 11 starts and those came against Oakland, who recently fired their Defensive Coordinator, and Minnesota who finished an ugly 31st in Total Defense. Today, however, they get the fairest stop troops in all the land as Pittsburgh finished #1 defensively giving up only 14.1 points per game. Even worse they held opponents to under 100 ypg on the ground and allowed the second least rushing TDs in the league. Toss in a blitzing James Harrison and a ball-hawking Troy Polamalu and you might want to keep the kids in their rooms as no impressionable youth should be exposed to what could be an unsafe helping of Brady Quinn.
   Earlier this year the Steelers took on a Seattle team sporting the youngest offensive line since the expansion year Carolina Panthers and shut them out 24-0. We see more of the same here so we'll go Pittsburgh -9 and with Big Ben still limping the run-first approach will hopefully keep this one Under 33.5 in the antidote to your Lions-Saints hangover.

Officially the Steelers don't have cheerleaders, but these girls seem to be in the spirit!

--Atlanta at New York Giants: On Tuesday the temperature here in New York was 8 with a wind chill of -2. Today it's 52 and could reach as high as 60. Up, down, big, small frankly my testicles don't know what to do these days. Seemingly this bodes well for the Dome as Home Falcons, but after many a frozen tailgating adventure at The Meadowlands we can assure it's always 20 degrees colder in the swamps of Jersey and the wind is constantly swirling. We've detailed Matt Ryan's H/A splits here in the past, but to update you this year he had a 102.9 QB rate and 17/5 ratio at home against 84.6 and 12/7 on the road.
    On the other hand we're no big fans of the Giants and feel their playoff clinching wins over the Jets and Cowboys were as much the result of flawed opponents as it was their own ability. The one thing we do know is that the Giants Front Four has been playing well. For the year they ranked tied with the Ravens for 3rd in sacks against the Falcons' below average 21st ranking. Both O-Lines allowed a similiar number of sacks so it should be the Giants in Matt Ryan's face more often than the Falcons in Eli Manning's.
    All this bodes well for another possible big game for WR Victor Cruz which seems stunning. Not that Cruz isn't a talent, but more that he has broken virtually every receiving record in the long history of the Giants franchise this year and still defenses refuse to pay him any special attention. Against the Jets Darrell Revis spent most of his time matched up against a hobbling Hakeem Nicks and broke up at least 3 passes intended for 4th stringer Ramses Barden, a player who I assume was given that name to remind his parents to use a condom in the future. Expect more of the same as from observation it appears the Falcons let their CBs play sides of the field rather than match up with certain receivers. Still we'll go Under 47.5 here, but make it a Favorites sweep of the weekend by taking the Giants -3.

There are no official Giant cheerleaders either. But at this point let me add that the ubiquity of these large breasted, small waisted women on the Internet has almost become boring...

...as I said..."almost"...

I couldn't write another line...nor do you want me when this is waiting...

Another British Page 6 girl...Can you get a U.S. subscription to the Daily Mirror?

Medically Correct...Morally Bankrupt-NFL Notes Week 11

--Friday was "Pajama Day" at school an event replete with so many kids wandering around in bathrobes and slippers that I felt like not so much a teacher as an orderly at a mental institution...I mean more so than usual. My request, however, to get on the PA and in a sing-song voice announce, "Medication Time", like R.P. McMurphy in One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest was rejected not so much for being inappropriate as for the confusion it would cause since we already have 3 unannounced Medication Times every day. But yes people should work harder/longer to get ahead...the "Twelve Hours A Day Of Daycare" Generation is what's gonna make this country great again...sorry, I'm done now.

--Now I know Penny's supposed to be the looker on Big Bang Theory, but has Bernadette filled out rather nicely this season...and while we're at it did Brandi from Storage Wars get a boob job...and who else watches all the way through the intro to Modern Family just so they could see the oldest daughter in that short skirt and calf-high boots...and what's with the fiancee girl on Terms of Engagement? Is she hot? Is she fat? It's hard to te...Dear God, maybe these educational experts are right. We do need a Voucher System...

NFL NOTES
--Sometimes you can be too smart. For example Ritz Crackers boxes of the 1970's used to feature on the back a recipe for something called "Mock Apple Pie". This was a traditional-style pie made with all the usual ingredients except apples. Instead one substituted Ritz Crackers...naturally.
    Now going from using sweet, juicy apples to salty, crunchy crackers and putting together a tasty replica of the real thing is certainly a stunning feat of neurological gymnastics, but instead of being impressed I was generally left thinking what if this person had put his mind to something important, like say, finding a cure for cancer or coming up with a sign you could use to alert people their turn signal's been on for 17 miles (the middle finger doesn't have the effect I'd hoped it would) instead.
    Last week  Atlanta HC Mike Smith decided to go for it on 4th and 1 from his own 30 in OT and though the failure sealed a loss for the Falcons Football Sabermetricians, who have long been touting research that says teams should go for it on 4th and short far more often than they do, came out of the woodwork to defend him. And while I'm all for innovation and inventiveness I think this may be an overreach. Going back to the early 2000's sabermetric founder Bill James proposed a fluid, non-defined bullpen system that the Red Sox adopted and abandoned after half a season. The problem was not so much ineffectiveness as it was complaints from players who preferred having a defined role.
    In football the offense's role is to get first downs. When they fail the special team's role is to flip the field position and the defense's job is to stop the opponent. Last Sunday Smith made his offense everything and played down the roles of his special teams and defense. Over a 162 game season you might be able to weather these storms and wait for regression to prove you right. Over 16 games even a short string of failures of this nature can destroy confidence and lead to dissension. It's only one game and Smith has built up plenty of points in the lockerroom since replacing Bobby Petrino so he should be able to survive this gaffe. But sometimes we need less Mock Apple Pies in the world and more easier opening ways to package, goddamned, cream cheese...

Maybe I was too hard on Mock Apple Pie...I mean sometimes fake is just better.

--I'm gonna Occupy My Couch before I ever consider Occupy(ing) Wall Street, but let's face facts a lot of rich people are just Dicks. For example the sweater tied around the neck old guy who dropped his keys at the supermarket and when I went to hand them back said, "thanks, I'll need those for my BMW." At which point I held them up by the tiny Super Saver card and said, "yeah and you'll need this to save 3 cents on peas...Asswipe." OK, maybe not that last part, but hey when did they remove the "c" with a line through it cents symbol anyway.
    Oh yeah the point...this kind of attitude it what makes it easy to see the Washington Redskins perpetually fail. Daniel Snyder looks like a little Napoleonic-complexed ass and the way he has jerked around this fantastic fan base while throwing money around to provide false hope pretty much bears it out.
    So here's a tip...get a friggin' QB. Since he took over in 1999 the roster of signal callers here has barely shown any planning or foresight toward what is obviously the most critical position on the field. The lineup of starters includes the Over-The-Hill gang (well into their 30's at the time) of Brad Johnson, Jeff George, Mark Brunell and Donovan McNabb; the low or undrafted trio of Danny Wuerffel, Shane Matthews and Tim Hasselbeck; and the over-drafted tandem of Patrick Ramsey and Jason Campbell plus this year's train wreck that is Rex Grossman and John Beck.
    So for an owner who once had his vendors sell beer in the bathrooms and bags of peanuts he got at an auction for the bankrupt Imperial Airlines quit cutting corners where it's important only to piss money away on the Albert Haynesworth's of the world. After all a bunch of fat guys in flower print dresses and pig noses deserve better.

This is our 4th Redskin Cheerleader of the year...which says at least Daniel Snyder hasn't skimped on the silicone.

--If you need a stat to define why the Eagles are not the Dream Team they were billed as here it is: Last week the Arizona Cardinals threw 40 passes. On 16 of those Nnandi Asomugha matched up in single coverage with Larry Fitzgerald resulting in two targets for no completions. On the other 24 attempts Fitzgerald caught 7 passes for 146 yards and two TDs.
    Years of watching Steve Smith put up monster numbers all by himself in Carolina has confirmed, as has Phil Simms in his book Sunday Morning Quarterback, that there is no such thing as Double Coverage, as we know it from the school yard, in the NFL. Still the least you could do is have your high-priced shutdown corner shadowing your opponents biggest threat instead of standing out in space waiting for lead-footed Tight Ends like Jeff King to run through his area.
    Certainly the Iggles have regressed some on offense this year particularly in the passing game, but that was to be expected to a degree after a Top 3 performance in 2010. The signing of Asomugha, however, should have freed up the safeties and LBs to play a more agressive game that could have offset the down tick on O. Instead Philly is 12 takeaways off last year's pace and ranks 29th in the league in TD passes allowed. That's a lot of cheese steaks spent on a player for that kind of return, but hey Andy Reid and Defensive Coordinator Juan Castillo's bond is one that'll last a lifetime...and you can't put a price on friendship.

--Fred's Pick (3-3-1) today is Chicago -4 over San Diego. We concur, but wish we didn't have to as the mess in Charger-land has made the idea of the Broncos stealing the AFC West a distinct possibility and that means Tebow Time, All The Time for sports media everywhere. K.C. looks done what with having to start a QB who actually couldn't beat out Matt Cassell for the rest of the year and Oakland seems to be, as my Grandmother used to say, like Shit...they're all over the place. Today they go to Minny for a big one since up coming matchups with potential playoff squads Green Bay, Chicago and Detroit could be dicey. Carson Palmer's improvement last week and continuing familiarity with the offense does bode well for the Raiders. However, if they should falter and Phillip Rivers can't find his old self soon the press might have us believing the name on the back of those controversial Tebow jerseys shouldn't be "Jesus", but "God".

--As for us we're gonna try the Falcons to bounce back from last week's emotional loss (Hell it worked for freakin' Penn State yesterday) laying 6.5 to Tennessee in the confines of the Georgia Dome. We've already gone on about Matt Ryan's success at home vs. on the road and last week mentioned Tennessee seems a suspect 5-4 with a vunerability on the road and recent results results give us value at under a TD and even down to -6 in some places. I'm still sick so that's all while I'm off to self-medicate 12 fluid ounces at a time.

Finally, let's class this thing up a bit...Enjoy the games!

Further Loneliness...Long-Distance Drunkard (NFL Notes-Week 8)

Quick Hits
--First to all the students who plan on coming to my home for Halloween I say,"That reminds me...get razorblades." See ya tomorrow.

--Fact is there may be no candy here anyway as I've already worked three-quarters of the way through the Snickers bag preparing this post. But don't worry 'bout my health as they weren't the Full, but rather the Fun Size Snickers. Which ironically is what I've always told my girlfriends over the years,"it's not small, it's Fun Size..."

--Sorry to hear professional curmudgeon Andy Rooney is doing poorly, but seriously did reporters need to sound so shocked when delivering this news. I mean the guy was a Cub Reporter at Dunkirk, has a nose like a relief map of Nepal and eyebrows that could frighten Ox Baker. Is it really surprising when he's rushed to the hospital? Toward the end Jerry Garcia weighed 400 pounds, ate a half gallon of Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream for breakfast and waddled down to Candlestick Park to Freebase alone yet upon his demise people kept asking me, "can you believe Jerry's gone." Hell, I couldn't believe he was still alive...but then we all grieve differently.

--If you work in an office and want some down time or just to screw with your boss open a Twitter account, type "joe buck douche bag" into the search and watch the server crash like Billy Joel on a three day bender. Couple this with Tim McCarver, a condescending, pompous ass so great he could make Joe Morgan look like a candidate for the Lady Byng Trophy and it's not hard to see why folks were not exactly watching the World Series in record numbers.

--And in one final WS note I believe Texas pitcher Derek Holland's moustache redefined "wispy" for a generation that never saw a young Martin Mull. When you can make Adam Morrison look like a cross between Stalin and the beret-wearing guy from MythBusters you may want to stand a little closer to the razor in the morning.

NFL NOTES
--Toward the end legendary Alabama coach Bear Bryant spent weekdays propped up in his coaching tower like he was auditioning for Weekend At Bernie's. And though he spoke with so many marbles in his mouth it was like trying to decipher the lyrics bridge from "Aqualung" while wearing ear buds cranking out "Come On Eileen" (you snatched a listerine lobster roll with dizzy diaper downs?) he still delivered the occasional coaching wisdom.
    One of my favorites is when asked what made Penn State's Joe Paterno a great coach the Bear responded, "cause he can take his'n and beat your'n and then he'll take your'n and beat his'n". And while speech teachers and diction coaches take a second to recover I'll point out that given "his'n", "your'n" or the "1974 Miami Dolphins'n" it appears Chargers HC Norv Turner would have trouble winning on a consistent basis.
    From a classiness perspective Jets HC Rex Ryan spoke out of school last week when he said he would've won a couple of Championships if he had San Diego's talent, but from a facts of the matter perspective there was more than a little truth in his conceited ramblings. From 1994 to 2000 Turner produced only one playoff team as coach of the Redskins, but could take solace in the fact that being saddled with Gus Frerotte as his QB throughout much of that run was somewhat of a built-in excuse. In San Diego Phillip Rivers has been present through Turner's entire tenure and while he may be a shade behind Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in a decade where Jake Delhomme, Kerry Collins and Trent Dilfer have led Super Bowl teams that's a pretty good hand to be dealt. And then last year Norvell (I'm guessing) pulled off the greatest magic trick since David Copperfield got Claudia Schiffer to marry him by having his Chargers finish #1 in the NFL in both Offense and Defense (based on yards gained/yards allowed) and still miss the playoffs.
    Last week's 13 penalty, 2 turnover, 17-0 second half collapse effort doesn't make it appear that Turner has turned the corner as a coach and that's too bad as injuries to Jason Campbell and Jamaal Charles plus the general mediocrity in the AFC West leave the window of opportunity open once again. They say those who can do, those who can't teach and those who can't teach teach gym. In football those who can coach, those who can't coordinate and those who can't coordinate do color. If things don't take a better turn in Southern California soon Norv may be headed to the booth one way or another come 2012.

Have I even mentioned the Redskins in this post? Well if for no other reason I should have...

--It's said football is a game of adjustments and so is handicapping football. Just like the "Great Goatee Fire" of 1990 taught me that you have to light and blow out the match before making a Jefferson Airplane a missed play on Atlanta last week taught me that you can't become too wedded to a particular theory. That theory, formulated going into the year, was that the Falcons over-achieved by winning 13 games last year and as a speed oriented Dome team were particularly vunerable on the road this year. All went well early as the Dirty Birds were 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in their first 3 road tilts at Chi./T.B./Sea. So when they traveled to an overrated Detroit last week it looked like a classic no play game. What I forgot to take into account is that the Lions, of course, are a Dome team. So while Matt Ryan has a 94 QB Rate at Home against 79 on the Road if you pull out his record in Away Dome games you find that his Rate and TD/Int.% is almost identical to what it is at home. Atlanta was at no disadvantage at the Ford Field Dome and subsequently produced an outright win as as a Dog. They go to another Dome next week in Indy then get 3 straight at home before they could sail in vastly overrated to games at Houston and Carolina to kick off December. Stay liquid for a possible investment.

--Like a Ron Paul campaign stop or another season of Futurama no one seemed to care about the monumental blunder perpetrated by Tony Sparano last week. Amidst all the media genuflecting over what was mostly a poor Tim Tebow effort everyone ignored the fact that 6 seconds into the 4th quarter with many possessions left for both sides Sparano chose to go for two with his team up 12-0 rather than kick the extra point and make it a 13-0 game.
    So now I'm going to give you two words that should be on every announcer's lips when a coach decides to go for two..."TIME SENSITIVE"! The decision to go or not go for two should take into account how many possessions are remaining in the game (NOTE: It should also be "Personnel Sensitive" and "Opponent Sensitive", but for the sake of brevity and carpel tunnel syndrome we'll stick with Time only).
    In general teams average about 3.5 possessions per quarter. Since Denver was getting the ball first and just to be safe that meant they had at least 4 possessions left. This gave them a myriad of ways to reach 12-14 points so the idea is to make it as tough on them as possible. 13 is more beneficial than 12 and add a possible FG in one Miami's upcoming drives (they had produced points on 3 of their last 6) and 16 forces Denver to go for two twice just to tie. NFL teams are successful on 2-pt. conversions about 40% of the time. Obviously this is probably less for a bad, Matt Moore QBed team like Miami and not much better for Denver so put the onus on the Broncos to convert and take the easy points that are presented to you.
    OK, this has gotten as convoluted as the time I tried to teach my Special Ed. class how to score Roller Derby, but it's time to raise the discussion of when it's right and when it's wrong to go for two beyond what it says on "The Card".

Dolphins Cheerleader Lily Robbins apparently entering Greg Brady's attic bedroom.

--Fred's Pick (1-2-1) today is Tennessee -9 over Indy. For the Colts, like Melanie Griffiths plastic surgery has proven, it's almost impossible to look that bad without trying. Everyone saw their debacle in primetime Sunday night, but not as many may have noticed how thoroughly the Titans were garretted by a fading, Andre Johnson-less Houston last week. Arian Foster alone nearly doubled their yardage production and overall they were outgained 518-148. The bloom may be off the rose for Mike Munchak and Matt Hasselbeck in Nashville so were avoiding this one.
    Last week Fred pushed with Cleveland -3 vs. Seattle in a game with all the offensive punch of C. Montgomery Burns. The Seahawks produced 137 yards total offense, 2-12 third down conversions and were out-time of possessioned 42:28-17:32. But this is what happens when you let Barry Gibb be your QB.



--And finally our picks. We're 4-1-1 in our NFL selections the last two weeks so tread carefully as the dreaded regression may be lurking. Let's go Baltimore to make Kevin Kolb's life more miserable and take the Ravens -12.5. And in a wild stab Carolina-Minnesota Under 46.5. Emotionally immature and morally bankrupt...and this is one of my good days...I'm done!

How come I always get the Iranian guy with halitosis when I hail a cab?

We're on Facebook at "Bowling Til' It Hurts" and Twitter @sprtcom102. Outside of that, seriously, leave me alone.

A Portrait Of...A Drunk Man Part II (NFL Notes)

    First off thanks to everyone out there who has sent this site vaulting over the 10,000 hit mark. It may not be much compared to the Bleacher Reports and SB Nations of the world, but as an ex-girlfriend once said if it wasn't for bitterness and sarcasm I'd have no personality at all. So thanks to you mugs for helping me keep my essence alive...of course you could just be here for the Cheerleader pics, but I prefer to feel the love.

    Meanwhile at school this week the Forensic Club decided their first debate would tackle the current Ohio gerrymandering controversy which I believe centers around incumbents trying to redesign voting districts to resemble The Beaver from  Leave It To Beaver  ...er...wait, that's JerryMather-ing, not gerrymandering. You know what let's just get to the football.

NFL Notes

--To start I apologize to the people who have asked for more Fantasy Football advice. In another life I contributed articles to "Fantasy Depth Chart" and "Pro Football Focus-Fantasy", but I have to admit with all the injuries that take place today the whole effort seemed like a bigger waste of time than my weekend trying to break the bank at Full Tilt Poker (Chris Ferguson is no Jesus in my book). Plus when it comes to FF the internet is filled with more analysis than the Penguin Classics edition of Franz Kafka's Metamorphosis. We recommend the "Football Guys" website, but really if you drafted Jamaal Charles at #5 just take your wife out to see the foliage because that's the only "points" that are gonna get you a win on Sundays.

Now this is more my idea of "Fantasy" Football (wow, it took longer than I thought to break that line outta my notes)

--In an episode of the classic sitcom Taxi Ignatowski tries to impress Tony's sister, a concert flautist, by atonally humming his favorite classical music score at which point Louie grabs the dispatcher microphone and announces, "I didn't think I'd have to make this rule, but no Vivaldi in the garage. Thank you." Similiarly when I discussed being wary of QBs who are "athletes", but not great passers in college I didn't think I'd have to add "or guys who never threw a pass in college" yet due to the sad case of Matt Cassel it appears I do. At USC Cassel took to the air as often as John Madden throwing exactly 33 passes in 4 years of backing up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart and the 2008 Pro Football Prospectus called him "Matty McFumbles" saying that Bill Belichick advised his offense coordinators to never allow him to pass when mopping up for Tom Brady and we know that's not because Bitter Bill is adverse to running up the score. Cassel put up an 89.4 QB Rate as a pure "system guy" when Brady went down in 2008 which landed him a big free agent contract from the Brodie Croyle-led Chiefs so you can't really blame them there. You can though blame pundits who thought last year's leap from a 69.9 Rate (16-16 ratio) to a 93.0 (27-7) wasn't just a mirage of easy scheduling. Lord knows big college stats don't mean pro success, but hell at least mix in a start or two. KC could be coach and QB shopping come this Christmas.

--Speaking of which Blaine Gabbert gets the start for Jacksonville today and just like the TV show Lost was better in it's original incarnation-Gilligan's Island- Gabbert in his career at Missouri was actually a worse version of New Orleans clipboard carrier Chase Daniel in the same Gary Pinkel system. Of course Gabbert is 4 inches taller than Daniel, but as we mentioned last week looking stud-ly didn't work out so well for Derek Anderson and Gabbert's preseason efforts may indicate the same for him. This means we could be looking at the latest incarnation of my yet to catch-on "Heath Shuler Theory" which states that if no great QB emerges in the draft one(s) will be made up since it is the glamour position and teams drafting high are generally there because of poor QB play. I could elaborate more but my Oscar Madison style hunt-and-peck finger is cramping up so let's just say the 22 year old Gabbert is on the road versus a surprisingly good Cam Newton and Panthers HC Ron Rivera is a former Defensive Coordinator who should find ways to confuse the 22 year old in his 1st start so take Carolina and lay the 3 or 4.

--In other wagering advice we are not riders on the Tampa Bay bandwagon this year, but we also feel Atlanta is coming off a season where they played over their heads. The biggest problem for Atlanta, as it often is with Dome teams, is playing well on the road. Matt Ryan has a career 96.7 QB Rate in the Georgia Dome against just 79.4 on the road. The Falcons were dumped in Chicago opening week, but the comeback win over a partially Vick-less Philly at home last week keeps their stock high. So much so that the Bucs could be worth a look at around a pick, but then again I'm still a little buzzed from last night so I'll let you decide.

Blah, blah...something about Pirate Booty...blah, blah. These things are practically writing themselves at this point.

--Also see our last week's post for the "Win Differential Theory" that identifies over/underrated teams. It is now 9-3 ATS this year after a 4-2 last week. Vegas adjusts remember, but if you want to take a flier on those teams we'll remind you that it's...Bet On: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Carolina...Bet Against: Kansas City, St. Louis, Tampa Bay.

--As for Monday Night analysis the Redskins and the questionably resurrected Rex Grossman go on the road for the first time to face a good Dallas pass rush. DeMarcus Ware has been penetrating backfields like Ricky Martin at a Clay Aiken pool party and if it weren't for the Dallas offense looking like the field after the Battle of Antietam we'd be all over Dallas. Monitor the Romo, F. Jones, Dez Bryant (Miles Austin is out) health situation. If it looks bad maybe an Under will be the play.

--And in closing two games today have Totals over 50 which is rare. New Orleans/Houston is at 52 and New England/Buffalo is at 54. You almost have to like the latter as Buffalo was lit up by the tandem of Jason Campbell to 4th Round rookie Denarious Moore last week so Brady to Welker, Branch, Gronkowski et. al. should have a field day weather permitting. Watching last week's N.E./S.D. game it almost made you wonder why the Patriots bother to run the ball? Thus my Fantasy tip of the week is trade whatever stud you have to to get Rob Gronkowski. Aaron Hernandez is out four weeks and neither Yahoo or NFL.com list another TE on the depth charts. This looks like 2007 all over again only without Randy Moss the TDs are spread more so grab Woodhead, BGE, Julian Edelman, the under-achieving Ocho Cinco or Matthew Slater they're all potential studs depending on injuries and circumstances and have a hell of a lot better upside than Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian would appear to have this year.

And as promised "Brit Clit" Lucy Pinder from last week's Lump Detection Instructional photo. If you look like this and screw up your life, sorry, but it's all on you...I'm just sayin'...

Thanks for your Patronage and feel free to check out our CFB notes, Old School Wrestling articles ("Crimson Mask" and "Seminal Sluts" titles) and Rex Ryan Foot Fetish All-Star posts throughout the site. You guys...what can I say...

Warily Waggish Wagers

    First off let me reiterate my weekly disclaimer that these selections are based on the most cursory perusal of pertinent details since it was decided to give Emeril a sitcom. Nonetheless I'll throw out the crap I've come up with and hope for the best...kinda like Jimmy Fallon does every night. Here goes...

Pittsburgh -3/37
    This one looks harder than trying to remember all the new Zodiac dates. I mean I just figured out the Terrorist Threat Level colors and now this! Last week Baltimore blew out the Chiefs which has probably inflated their value. This week they won't likely be the beneficiaries of 5 turnovers (Pit. was +14 this year) or the worst aerial attack since the Egyptians in the Six Day War. Roethlisberger may be the poor man's Tom Brady, but that's miles better than Matt Cassel plus add in WR Mike Wallace, who had a 1200 yard breakout year, along with Hines Ward and this is a unit that will put much more pressure on the Ravens secondary than K.C and waiver wire fodder like Kevin Curtis did. We don't figure either team to run well, but Pittsburgh's O-Line has been steadier this year than Baltimore's which seemed to regress after a dominating 2009. The key for the Steelers will be controlling LB Terrell Suggs who beat on Roethlisberger like he was Meredith Baxter in a Lifetime Original Movie back in their December matchup.We think they will and in the least surprising revelation since we found out Brett Favre has a sister who's into Meth and spells "Brandy" with an "i" we think it will be low scoring. That means PITTSBURGH and UNDER...good luck!

Atlanta -1.5/44
    Like Valerie Bertinelli's marriage to Eddie Van Halen there's something about the Falcons we just don't get. Roddy White is great, Matt Ryan is developing on pace and the defense is improved still it doesn't seem to add up to 13-3 dominance. From 2009 to 2010 Atlanta improved by close to 50 points in both points scored and points allowed. Part of that is due to maturation on offense and the addition of CB Dunta Robinson on defense, but part is also due to a schedule that went from one of the toughest in the NFC to one of of the softest courtesy of drawing the NFC West this year. In 4 games against the West and two against Carolina the Dirty Birds allowed 12.7 ppg. In their 10 other games they gave up 21.2 ppg and were gashed for 418 yards at home against the Pack in November. Some of this may be statistical b.s., but we prefer a team that has consolidated its gains over the course of multiple years. The Packers have done that producing back-to-back seasons of 380+ points for and <300 points against (I always like using the  "less than" sign in real life, although the officer that pulled me over for speeding didn't quite appreciate the humor in my hand gesture). They also have Donald Driver back for this one (injured in November), as well as the benefit of an improved run game courtesy of James Starks. Plus we like what Aaron Rodgers is doing and if his line can control the pass rush of John Abraham we like his chances. We'll call it PACKERS and OVER figuring if Atlanta does run out and hide Green Bay will still get its garbage points.
   I know it's college football, but all I can think is, "her parents must be so proud."

One Down...More To Come

Selections: 3-5
Sides: 2-2
Totals: 1-3
Wild Card weekend is over and the Saints, Chiefs, Colts and Eagles have been bounced like Roman Polanski from a Sweet Sixteen. For our part the selections were more David Akers than Marshawn Lynch, but it wasn't a total debacle and hopefully we have a better feel with 15 or so hours of playoff watching under our belt. WC recaps, a Saturday/Sunday lookahead and more nihilistic rantings than Jared Lee Loughner's My Space page up Wednesday night.