With The Neck Of A Snapping Turtle (NFL-Week 5)

First off to the bus I'm behind each day during my morning commute...could you put a little jog on it Zach and Giana when you're getting aboard. Oh, and also how 'bout taking the first seat available instead of moseying all the way to the back...It's like Rosa Parks went to jail for nothing.

Yes, there's also this...

SIDES (8-8): Houston +5.5; New England +3.0; San Francisco -4.5; Philadelphia -4.5; Tampa Bay +10.0; N.Y. Jets +6.5

TOTAL: (16-9-1): Atl/NYG Under 51.0; Buf./Det. Over 43.5; Cin./N.E. Over 45.5; St.L./Phi. Under 48.0; Bal./Ind. Under 49.0; Hou./Dal. Over 47.5; NYJ/S.D. Under 44.0

A mix of the contrarian and others...Good luck!

Mama's On Pills, Daddy's Over The Hill (NFL Week4)

Another day and no more dollars, but before we list the picks...

YOUTUBE DISAPPOINTMENT ALERT: The old "Houston Oilers #1" song is not as jubilantly whimsical as I remembered it...you know, just mentioning it...

NOTE: Today's selections lean to the highly contrarian side...if that's yer kinda thing...

SIDES (5-7): Minnesota (+4.0), Tennessee (+7.5), Tampa Bay (+7.5), Houston (-2.5)

TOTALS (16-9-1): Buf./Hou. Under 44.0, Jac./S.D. Over 44.5

Best of luck and that type-a thing...

Giving A Crippled Crab A Crutch (Week 2)

Now that summer is gone one of the things I miss is the sound of the Ice Cream Truck coming through my neighborhood. I mean I just can't get enough of a xylophone version of "Turkey in the Straw" being played ad nauseum on a continuous loop...and besides that dessert just tastes better when it's served by a pedophile.

But enough of that...Here's today's slightly contrarian based picks-

SIDES (4-2): NY Giants PK, Detroit +2.5

TOTALS (5-4-1): KC/DEN under 50.5, STL/TB over 37.5, ATL/CIN under 48.5, DET/CAR over 43.5, NO/CLE over 48.5, MIA/BUF under 42.5, NYJ/GB under 46.5

From Ray Rice With Love (MNF)

New video out today shows Ray Rice cold-cocking his then fiancée, now wife, Janay Palmer in an elevator at the Revel Hotel Casino in Atlantic City and then dragging her into the hallway "caveman-style". Begging the question what went down faster Janay Rice or the Revel Hotel Casino. In light of the damning video the Ravens released Rice this afternoon. Meanwhile Janay has tabled her future with Mr. Rice...at least until she finds out how much of his recent $35M contract is guaranteed.

Here's our feeling on MNF...

SIDES (3-2): San Diego +2.5

TOTALS (4-4-1): S.D./Ari. under 46.5

Good luck and such.

Life...It's Taking Forever

    I wasn't fishing when I mentioned my birthday last week, but thanks to all for the belated wishes. As for the day itself I'm really not one for celebrating an event that serves as a reminder that I'm that much closer to my inevitable, inexorable demise...but, hey, there was cake so I'm calling it a push.

   In the Disappointment of The Week category we have TiVO intuitively taping the show Happy Endings for me only to find out it's not an offering from Cinemax After Dark, but an ABC primetime sitcom. It's sad to find out the one you love just doesn't "get" you anymore. And while we're on the subject doesn't Elisha Cuthbert somehow sound a lot hotter than she is? But then again I shouldn't have expected too much from New York Ranger Sean Avery's "sloppy seconds" (http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=3740267).

Dear Steve Avery: I'd take "sloppy twelfths" on this...but then again I don't have a very "discerning palette" at this point.

    Also congratulations to the New York Giants for not only winning their last two games to make the playoffs, but in the process shutting up the entire Ryan coaching family and Jerry Jones. Speaking of the latter does JJ wish he had some of that wasted Roy Williams money (both WR and SS) to shore up his offensive line and secondary both of which got abused more than Chaz Bono's new penis (enjoy, guy!). Throwing money away on a supefluous WR and a big hitting Strong Safety who couldn't cover "Smoke on the Water" with a year of guitar lessons is the reason guys like Jones and Daniel Snyder need to step aside and let real Football people handle personnel decisions. Then again I'll never get tired of this...

Ah, that's the Money Shot!

We're keeping our playoff posts mercifully short, but here's our look at today's games. In the early tussle Fred's Pick is Cincinnati +4. After watching the Bengals once stout run D get shredded more and more as the season went on we can't concur on this one. Ray Rice sliced through them like a Ginzu through a Fresca can last week and you can figure on heavy doses of Arian Foster and Ben Tate today which might make the Under 38 enticing. Expect the Texans to play it close to the vest with either Tyler Yates or God forbid Jake Delhomme at QB and with rookie Andy Dalton in his first playoff game against the league's #2 defense this might turn into a conservative field position battle. Additionally, if either squad gets a 2 score lead expect them to hunker down even more and go into turnover-safe, clock management mode early. Also remember the Bengals went 1-6 against teams with winning records this year and 0-6 vs. playoff teams. Houston with Matt Schaub and Mario Williams would have been a contender for the Super Bowl, in this weakened state the ceiling is much lower, but they may be able to get past here on their run game and defense alone.

I do love the "Veronica Lake" look...ask your grandfather...he'll explain it.

    What the early game lacks in fireworks should be made up by the New Orleans-Detroit contest. When Matt Flynn is puttin' a half dozen TD caps in your ass you can bet Drew Brees and his 50+ TDs this season is gonna have a field day. In fact if Vegas is offering a prop on New Orleans TD passes vs. Tebow completions we'd have to lean toward Brees and the boys. That Matt Stafford gets to throw to Calvin Johnson, who will physically dominate anyone the Saints throw at him, only adds to this offensive circus. The number is at 59.5 and may hit 60 before game time and there are so many weapons on both sides that one offshore book is listing 14 players in their prop bet on who will score the first TD which means if you take the Field you're pretty much resigning yourself to needing a defensive score. Gun to our head we'd play New Orleans -10 and the Over, but this might just be a fun one to watch.

Today's Official Plays: Fred-Cincinnati +4, Me-Hou./Cin. Under 38

We'll have Tebow crap and more game analysis tomorrow. Good luck, enjoy the games and here's probavbly what you really came for...

Seriously, why would anyone even care if they're real?

Happy Sailors Dancing On A Sinking Ship

    For those who have sent along birthday wishes...thanks! And to answer the question no I do not get ripped off by having my birthday on December 25th. Years ago I came up with the plan of witholding my gift to anyone who does not give me two in return. Now if we could only get the NCAA to adopt this +1 approach, well...

Oh and before I forget...Happy Birthday to friggin' me...


    Funny how it always takes the school's annual Symphonic Holiday Concert to remind me just how many Oriental students we actually have enrolled. But hats off to them for finding time in their schedules between Forensics Club, Model U.N., AP Chemistry, Girl's Volleyball and re-taking the Driver's License test over and over. I guess it's true what they say...there's always room for cello.

    Plus for the students who asked here are my Top 6 reasons for not participating in our pre-break Pajama Day II: 6. My "slanket" was in the wash...5. I was previously told I could not "dress for the job I want"...4. Two words: Nocturnal Emission...3. I sleep in the nude and there'd have been no winners there...2. Minus the chip crumbs that was what I slept in the night before...and...1. I have enough trouble staying awake there the way it is.

    And lastly is there anyone more annoying than those Tailgating Guys in the Mobile 3G commercials who are on top of everything with their phones. What happened to the goal in life being to be left the f--- alone. Makes you long for the days of the old Joe Friday Dragnet rotary phone where when a girl gave you her number you'd have to weigh how attractive she was against how many 8's, 9's and 0's were in her number to decide whether it was worth calling her back. Or better yet the even older Andy Griffith two-handed phone where it was worthless calling those 976 sex lines because the girl would ask you to touch yourself and you'd have to rub up against a wall because you didn't have a hand free...oh right football, here we go...

CFB
--George Carlin used to say he didn't eat tomatoes because while they look nice on the outside when you bite into one inside it appears to be still in the larval stage...which is kinda how I view Rutgers HC Greg Schiano. There's no doubt Schiano has done yeoman's work in taking a program that many we're saying should drop down to the FCS level and turning it into a viable FBS team. And on the outside everything looks great what with brand new multi-million dollar facilities, strong recruiting and several minor bowl appearances. But on the inside, i.e. game day, things are not quite so rosy. Despite the successful records Jersey Greg has proven time and again to be a poor in-game coach who hasn't been able to get over the hump and break through to a top tier bowl despite having a lot of NFL level talent (check your favorite team's roster) in an extremely weak BCS conference.
    Nothing proves this better than his astounding 0-11 record versus West Virginia, the team to beat in the post Miami (FL)/Virginia Tech Big East. This year Rutgers not only succumbed to the Mountaineers again, but with the conference title still in reach may have delivered the signature loss of the Schiano era when they fell to then 4-6 Connecticut and retread coach Paul Pasqualoni 40-22 in their season finale.
   Which all brings us to our Bowl selections and "Fred's Picks" Early Bowl Lock-Iowa State +2 over Rutgers in the Dec. 30 Pinstripe Bowl. And while we're at it let's also give you the BeyondTheBets.com top Bowl Underdog plays of Iowa +14 over Oklahoma and Washington +9.5 over Baylor. In the former the Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz is 7-2 ATS in Bowl Games including 5 outright wins in 7 games as a Dog and catches a banged up Sooner team that thought they'd be playing for the National Title before a late season swoon. As for the Huskies the key may be underrated HC Steve Sarkisian who in his brief tenure in the great Northwest has gone 5-0 SU/ATS in games in which he has had more than a week to prepare including a 19-7 upset of Nebraska as an 11.5 point Dog in their bowl last year.
    So to recap our Bowl plays so far are Iowa State +2 (Fred's Pick), Florida St. -3 (my pick), Washington +9.5 & Iowa +14 (BeyondTheBets) and Oklahoma State -4 (my pick). God Bless Us All...Everyone!

NFL
--The comedian Nick DiPaolo in discussing elderly women who opt for plastic surgery points out that if you're going to get your face tightened don't forget about the area below your chin lest you wind up with the forehead of a 16 year-old girl and the neck of Snapping Turtle. The NFL equivalent of this oversight appears to be the Chicago Bears.
    Now I'm no huge fan of Jay Cutler or Mike Martz but through the first 10 games of the season they were clicking well enough to combine with their Top 10/Brian Urlacher-lead defense to make Da Bears a serious Super Bowl contender. In all Chicago's O topped 30 points in 6 of 10 tries and their record stood at 7-3 before Cutler went down for the year. And this is where GM Jerry Angelo needed to go to work.
    You see unlike the nursery in Eric Clapton's apartment the window of opportunity in the NFL doesn't stay open forever (too soon?). With a huge decision/investment to be made concerning Matt Forte and Urlacher/Peppers not getting any younger Angelo needed to opt for more Botox or at least a cheap turtleneck to cover up the turkey-neck that is Caleb Hanie at QB and at least get the Bears to the Playoffs where maybe Cutler could be resurrected for one good run.
    It didn't happen and after close losses to the defense-less Raiders and the Tyler Palko-led Chiefs Marion Barber did his best Schleprock/Weeble impression as the unluckiest guy not to fall down at Denver and the pooch was screwed. Had Angelo swung a deal for Kyle Orton (he couldn't beat the Chiefs on the waiver wire) or trolled for a Seneca Wallace or some other competent place holder who knows what might have happened. Sunday night ex-Raider castoff Josh McCown starts against Green Bay and can pretty much not help but being an improvement, yet alas it appears the Atlanta and Detroit wins last week will have the Bears on the outside looking in. Another plastic surgery disaster that could make even Suzanne Somers sad.

Actually this might be the kid from Mask, I really didn't check it thoroughly...

--Two weeks ago people said we were on crack for picking the Seattle Seahawks to make the playoffs. First let me say I would never smoke anything that is named after a part of my ass and second it should be noted that Pete Carroll's crew currently stands at #7 in the NFC with the best chance to get to the Big Dance if Atlanta or Detroit stumble.
    The Falcons play Tampa Bay at home the final week so they're basically in, but the Lions may still have problems. First off they get the red-hot Chargers today at home before finishing at Green Bay. Neither of those are sure things even if last week's loss means the Pack rests their starters, as extreme cold and snow could still be an issue for the Dome-bound Detroiters. Meanwhile Seattle gets San Francisco today and Arizona in the finale. It's still a longshot that needs tiebreaker help, but hey the Lions have had exactly two kickers (Eddie Murray, Jason Hanson) in the last 31 years and if that could happen why the Hell not this?

 How old am I on this Birthday? Let's just say my first thought on seeing this picture was..."she's just asking for back problems".

--In a day of many big games the biggest may be the virtual playoff elimination matchup between the Jets and the Giants. A lot has been made in recent weeks of Tom Coughlin's abysmal 2nd half record with New York and certainly that is something to be considered. But remember the Giants did have a heckuva 2nd half run in winning the Super Bowl in 2007 and a quick perusal of their sked from November on this year indicates they may have an excuse for their recent troubles.
    Starting on 11/6 the Gi'nts faced N.E., S.F., Phi., N.O., G.B., Dal., Was. That's 5 division leaders among their 7 opponents and 2 of those games they won. On the other hand the Jets over this same period took on Buf. (twice), N.E., Den., Was., K.C., Phi. with wins coming only over the injury-riddled Bills, the Palko-led Chiefs and the Redskins. Of the three common opponents in those games (N.E., Phi., Was.) both the New Yorkers went 1-2 but the Giants were outscored only 44-60 while the Jets put up 69 points but were garretted for 101 against.
    It's hard to look worse than Eli and the Giants did last week, but Off The Marky Mark Sanchez and the Jets gave it a helluva try in Philly. Fred and I are off this one, but if you're inclined toward investing here keep the recent scheduling dichotomy in mind before plunging ahead.

--Fred's Pick is back to a normal font after last week's Jets play, but he still stands at a profitable 7-4-1 on the year. Today's advice is to go with the hot hand of Kyle (Don't Call Me Ol' Ace) Orton and the Chiefs at -2 over Oakland. And after a week off we're back on the bandwagon here. Orton finally gives the Chiefs a reasonable offensive prescence that even Matt Cassell didn't provide and the defense under Romeo Crennel has held division leaders Green Bay, Pittsburgh and Denver all under 20 points in recent weeks. Oakland's playoff hopes were crushed like Giles Corey at the Salem Witch Trials with Detroit's miracle comeback last week and now they must venture to Arrowhead Stadium a setting known league-wide for being more hostile than the Double Deuce bar in Roadhouse. K.C. pressured Aaron Rodgers into a mere 80.1 QB Rate last week. They should have even more success against an interception-prone Carson Palmer today. Good luck.

--According to BeyondTheBets today's top public plays are Carolina over Tampa, San Diego over Detroit and San Francisco over Seattle which to me is stunning in that Denver over Buffalo is not on that list. Has the public decided to pull a Jim Rockford and tuck and roll their way off the Tebow bandwagon after one loss? Versus a team on an 8 game, haven't even been close, losing streak? Even though Denver lost last week we were impressed that Tebow didn't go in the tank like the Detroit start, but played his game-passing a little, running for 93 yards and two TDs and putting up a reasonable 23 points. It was the defense that let them down, but against Tom Brady and the Pats that's to be expected. Denver is -2.5 in Buffalo and while we lean that way our official play will be the Seahawks +1 over the 49ers in Seattle. It's difficult to run on a Pete Carroll D and that's what S.F. wants to do. Additionally, the Niners have played only 3 road games in their last 8 winning once at John Beck's Washington against 2 losses. Add in an over-inflation in the public eye because of a Monday win over Pittsburgh in a game where Ben Roethlisberger was limping like he just had a 3 way with Bill Conlin and Jerry Sandusky and the Seahawks look like a hot team that is under the radar in this one. Finished...literally!

Seriously, why would you ever work...

Further Loneliness...Long-Distance Drunkard (NFL Notes-Week 8)

Quick Hits
--First to all the students who plan on coming to my home for Halloween I say,"That reminds me...get razorblades." See ya tomorrow.

--Fact is there may be no candy here anyway as I've already worked three-quarters of the way through the Snickers bag preparing this post. But don't worry 'bout my health as they weren't the Full, but rather the Fun Size Snickers. Which ironically is what I've always told my girlfriends over the years,"it's not small, it's Fun Size..."

--Sorry to hear professional curmudgeon Andy Rooney is doing poorly, but seriously did reporters need to sound so shocked when delivering this news. I mean the guy was a Cub Reporter at Dunkirk, has a nose like a relief map of Nepal and eyebrows that could frighten Ox Baker. Is it really surprising when he's rushed to the hospital? Toward the end Jerry Garcia weighed 400 pounds, ate a half gallon of Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream for breakfast and waddled down to Candlestick Park to Freebase alone yet upon his demise people kept asking me, "can you believe Jerry's gone." Hell, I couldn't believe he was still alive...but then we all grieve differently.

--If you work in an office and want some down time or just to screw with your boss open a Twitter account, type "joe buck douche bag" into the search and watch the server crash like Billy Joel on a three day bender. Couple this with Tim McCarver, a condescending, pompous ass so great he could make Joe Morgan look like a candidate for the Lady Byng Trophy and it's not hard to see why folks were not exactly watching the World Series in record numbers.

--And in one final WS note I believe Texas pitcher Derek Holland's moustache redefined "wispy" for a generation that never saw a young Martin Mull. When you can make Adam Morrison look like a cross between Stalin and the beret-wearing guy from MythBusters you may want to stand a little closer to the razor in the morning.

NFL NOTES
--Toward the end legendary Alabama coach Bear Bryant spent weekdays propped up in his coaching tower like he was auditioning for Weekend At Bernie's. And though he spoke with so many marbles in his mouth it was like trying to decipher the lyrics bridge from "Aqualung" while wearing ear buds cranking out "Come On Eileen" (you snatched a listerine lobster roll with dizzy diaper downs?) he still delivered the occasional coaching wisdom.
    One of my favorites is when asked what made Penn State's Joe Paterno a great coach the Bear responded, "cause he can take his'n and beat your'n and then he'll take your'n and beat his'n". And while speech teachers and diction coaches take a second to recover I'll point out that given "his'n", "your'n" or the "1974 Miami Dolphins'n" it appears Chargers HC Norv Turner would have trouble winning on a consistent basis.
    From a classiness perspective Jets HC Rex Ryan spoke out of school last week when he said he would've won a couple of Championships if he had San Diego's talent, but from a facts of the matter perspective there was more than a little truth in his conceited ramblings. From 1994 to 2000 Turner produced only one playoff team as coach of the Redskins, but could take solace in the fact that being saddled with Gus Frerotte as his QB throughout much of that run was somewhat of a built-in excuse. In San Diego Phillip Rivers has been present through Turner's entire tenure and while he may be a shade behind Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in a decade where Jake Delhomme, Kerry Collins and Trent Dilfer have led Super Bowl teams that's a pretty good hand to be dealt. And then last year Norvell (I'm guessing) pulled off the greatest magic trick since David Copperfield got Claudia Schiffer to marry him by having his Chargers finish #1 in the NFL in both Offense and Defense (based on yards gained/yards allowed) and still miss the playoffs.
    Last week's 13 penalty, 2 turnover, 17-0 second half collapse effort doesn't make it appear that Turner has turned the corner as a coach and that's too bad as injuries to Jason Campbell and Jamaal Charles plus the general mediocrity in the AFC West leave the window of opportunity open once again. They say those who can do, those who can't teach and those who can't teach teach gym. In football those who can coach, those who can't coordinate and those who can't coordinate do color. If things don't take a better turn in Southern California soon Norv may be headed to the booth one way or another come 2012.

Have I even mentioned the Redskins in this post? Well if for no other reason I should have...

--It's said football is a game of adjustments and so is handicapping football. Just like the "Great Goatee Fire" of 1990 taught me that you have to light and blow out the match before making a Jefferson Airplane a missed play on Atlanta last week taught me that you can't become too wedded to a particular theory. That theory, formulated going into the year, was that the Falcons over-achieved by winning 13 games last year and as a speed oriented Dome team were particularly vunerable on the road this year. All went well early as the Dirty Birds were 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in their first 3 road tilts at Chi./T.B./Sea. So when they traveled to an overrated Detroit last week it looked like a classic no play game. What I forgot to take into account is that the Lions, of course, are a Dome team. So while Matt Ryan has a 94 QB Rate at Home against 79 on the Road if you pull out his record in Away Dome games you find that his Rate and TD/Int.% is almost identical to what it is at home. Atlanta was at no disadvantage at the Ford Field Dome and subsequently produced an outright win as as a Dog. They go to another Dome next week in Indy then get 3 straight at home before they could sail in vastly overrated to games at Houston and Carolina to kick off December. Stay liquid for a possible investment.

--Like a Ron Paul campaign stop or another season of Futurama no one seemed to care about the monumental blunder perpetrated by Tony Sparano last week. Amidst all the media genuflecting over what was mostly a poor Tim Tebow effort everyone ignored the fact that 6 seconds into the 4th quarter with many possessions left for both sides Sparano chose to go for two with his team up 12-0 rather than kick the extra point and make it a 13-0 game.
    So now I'm going to give you two words that should be on every announcer's lips when a coach decides to go for two..."TIME SENSITIVE"! The decision to go or not go for two should take into account how many possessions are remaining in the game (NOTE: It should also be "Personnel Sensitive" and "Opponent Sensitive", but for the sake of brevity and carpel tunnel syndrome we'll stick with Time only).
    In general teams average about 3.5 possessions per quarter. Since Denver was getting the ball first and just to be safe that meant they had at least 4 possessions left. This gave them a myriad of ways to reach 12-14 points so the idea is to make it as tough on them as possible. 13 is more beneficial than 12 and add a possible FG in one Miami's upcoming drives (they had produced points on 3 of their last 6) and 16 forces Denver to go for two twice just to tie. NFL teams are successful on 2-pt. conversions about 40% of the time. Obviously this is probably less for a bad, Matt Moore QBed team like Miami and not much better for Denver so put the onus on the Broncos to convert and take the easy points that are presented to you.
    OK, this has gotten as convoluted as the time I tried to teach my Special Ed. class how to score Roller Derby, but it's time to raise the discussion of when it's right and when it's wrong to go for two beyond what it says on "The Card".

Dolphins Cheerleader Lily Robbins apparently entering Greg Brady's attic bedroom.

--Fred's Pick (1-2-1) today is Tennessee -9 over Indy. For the Colts, like Melanie Griffiths plastic surgery has proven, it's almost impossible to look that bad without trying. Everyone saw their debacle in primetime Sunday night, but not as many may have noticed how thoroughly the Titans were garretted by a fading, Andre Johnson-less Houston last week. Arian Foster alone nearly doubled their yardage production and overall they were outgained 518-148. The bloom may be off the rose for Mike Munchak and Matt Hasselbeck in Nashville so were avoiding this one.
    Last week Fred pushed with Cleveland -3 vs. Seattle in a game with all the offensive punch of C. Montgomery Burns. The Seahawks produced 137 yards total offense, 2-12 third down conversions and were out-time of possessioned 42:28-17:32. But this is what happens when you let Barry Gibb be your QB.



--And finally our picks. We're 4-1-1 in our NFL selections the last two weeks so tread carefully as the dreaded regression may be lurking. Let's go Baltimore to make Kevin Kolb's life more miserable and take the Ravens -12.5. And in a wild stab Carolina-Minnesota Under 46.5. Emotionally immature and morally bankrupt...and this is one of my good days...I'm done!

How come I always get the Iranian guy with halitosis when I hail a cab?

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