Meanwhile at school this week the Forensic Club decided their first debate would tackle the current Ohio gerrymandering controversy which I believe centers around incumbents trying to redesign voting districts to resemble The Beaver from Leave It To Beaver ...er...wait, that's JerryMather-ing, not gerrymandering. You know what let's just get to the football.
NFL Notes
--To start I apologize to the people who have asked for more Fantasy Football advice. In another life I contributed articles to "Fantasy Depth Chart" and "Pro Football Focus-Fantasy", but I have to admit with all the injuries that take place today the whole effort seemed like a bigger waste of time than my weekend trying to break the bank at Full Tilt Poker (Chris Ferguson is no Jesus in my book). Plus when it comes to FF the internet is filled with more analysis than the Penguin Classics edition of Franz Kafka's Metamorphosis. We recommend the "Football Guys" website, but really if you drafted Jamaal Charles at #5 just take your wife out to see the foliage because that's the only "points" that are gonna get you a win on Sundays.
Now this is more my idea of "Fantasy" Football (wow, it took longer than I thought to break that line outta my notes)--In an episode of the classic sitcom Taxi Ignatowski tries to impress Tony's sister, a concert flautist, by atonally humming his favorite classical music score at which point Louie grabs the dispatcher microphone and announces, "I didn't think I'd have to make this rule, but no Vivaldi in the garage. Thank you." Similiarly when I discussed being wary of QBs who are "athletes", but not great passers in college I didn't think I'd have to add "or guys who never threw a pass in college" yet due to the sad case of Matt Cassel it appears I do. At USC Cassel took to the air as often as John Madden throwing exactly 33 passes in 4 years of backing up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart and the 2008 Pro Football Prospectus called him "Matty McFumbles" saying that Bill Belichick advised his offense coordinators to never allow him to pass when mopping up for Tom Brady and we know that's not because Bitter Bill is adverse to running up the score. Cassel put up an 89.4 QB Rate as a pure "system guy" when Brady went down in 2008 which landed him a big free agent contract from the Brodie Croyle-led Chiefs so you can't really blame them there. You can though blame pundits who thought last year's leap from a 69.9 Rate (16-16 ratio) to a 93.0 (27-7) wasn't just a mirage of easy scheduling. Lord knows big college stats don't mean pro success, but hell at least mix in a start or two. KC could be coach and QB shopping come this Christmas.
--Speaking of which Blaine Gabbert gets the start for Jacksonville today and just like the TV show Lost was better in it's original incarnation-Gilligan's Island- Gabbert in his career at Missouri was actually a worse version of New Orleans clipboard carrier Chase Daniel in the same Gary Pinkel system. Of course Gabbert is 4 inches taller than Daniel, but as we mentioned last week looking stud-ly didn't work out so well for Derek Anderson and Gabbert's preseason efforts may indicate the same for him. This means we could be looking at the latest incarnation of my yet to catch-on "Heath Shuler Theory" which states that if no great QB emerges in the draft one(s) will be made up since it is the glamour position and teams drafting high are generally there because of poor QB play. I could elaborate more but my Oscar Madison style hunt-and-peck finger is cramping up so let's just say the 22 year old Gabbert is on the road versus a surprisingly good Cam Newton and Panthers HC Ron Rivera is a former Defensive Coordinator who should find ways to confuse the 22 year old in his 1st start so take Carolina and lay the 3 or 4.
--In other wagering advice we are not riders on the Tampa Bay bandwagon this year, but we also feel Atlanta is coming off a season where they played over their heads. The biggest problem for Atlanta, as it often is with Dome teams, is playing well on the road. Matt Ryan has a career 96.7 QB Rate in the Georgia Dome against just 79.4 on the road. The Falcons were dumped in Chicago opening week, but the comeback win over a partially Vick-less Philly at home last week keeps their stock high. So much so that the Bucs could be worth a look at around a pick, but then again I'm still a little buzzed from last night so I'll let you decide.
Blah, blah...something about Pirate Booty...blah, blah. These things are practically writing themselves at this point.--Also see our last week's post for the "Win Differential Theory" that identifies over/underrated teams. It is now 9-3 ATS this year after a 4-2 last week. Vegas adjusts remember, but if you want to take a flier on those teams we'll remind you that it's...Bet On: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Carolina...Bet Against: Kansas City, St. Louis, Tampa Bay.
--As for Monday Night analysis the Redskins and the questionably resurrected Rex Grossman go on the road for the first time to face a good Dallas pass rush. DeMarcus Ware has been penetrating backfields like Ricky Martin at a Clay Aiken pool party and if it weren't for the Dallas offense looking like the field after the Battle of Antietam we'd be all over Dallas. Monitor the Romo, F. Jones, Dez Bryant (Miles Austin is out) health situation. If it looks bad maybe an Under will be the play.
--And in closing two games today have Totals over 50 which is rare. New Orleans/Houston is at 52 and New England/Buffalo is at 54. You almost have to like the latter as Buffalo was lit up by the tandem of Jason Campbell to 4th Round rookie Denarious Moore last week so Brady to Welker, Branch, Gronkowski et. al. should have a field day weather permitting. Watching last week's N.E./S.D. game it almost made you wonder why the Patriots bother to run the ball? Thus my Fantasy tip of the week is trade whatever stud you have to to get Rob Gronkowski. Aaron Hernandez is out four weeks and neither Yahoo or NFL.com list another TE on the depth charts. This looks like 2007 all over again only without Randy Moss the TDs are spread more so grab Woodhead, BGE, Julian Edelman, the under-achieving Ocho Cinco or Matthew Slater they're all potential studs depending on injuries and circumstances and have a hell of a lot better upside than Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian would appear to have this year.
And as promised "Brit Clit" Lucy Pinder from last week's Lump Detection Instructional photo. If you look like this and screw up your life, sorry, but it's all on you...I'm just sayin'...Thanks for your Patronage and feel free to check out our CFB notes, Old School Wrestling articles ("Crimson Mask" and "Seminal Sluts" titles) and Rex Ryan Foot Fetish All-Star posts throughout the site. You guys...what can I say...
