Next for those who took our advice on the Illinois-Arizona State game we were not trying to pull a fast one by posting the line at -2.5. It actually opened at -2 and when we posted in the A.M. it was up to -2.5 at the Hilton. Later it jumped to -3.5 or -4 and if you got it there you lost. Sorry, but remember like I tell people about my drinking these picks are for recreational purposes only.
NFL WEEK 1
--Dear God Donovan McNabb has fallen apart faster than a futon in a fat guy's house. His 76 or so yard effort was the worst performance through the air this side of Reno, but it shouldn't come as a surprise. I believe I once described Philly HC Andy Reid as less of a Chippendale and more of a Chip-A-Hoy dancer, but he can sure coach up some offense. His teams have been Top 10 in points scored each of the last 4 years and players like Ricky Watters, Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, L.J. Smith and others have been Fantasy forces under him, Fantasy flops after moving on. This tells us that first off Reid puts his skill players in the best position possible to succeed and secondly that he knows when their effectiveness is up and jettisons them accordingly. D-Mac went from a 92.9 QB Rate his last year in Philly to a 77.1 last year in D.C.. Also at 35 he's two years past the cutoff of when QBs begin their decline according to Football Outsiders. Add in that he always was a cut below the Bradys, P. Mannings and Breeses of the world and it could be a long year for Percy Harvin and a buttload of carries for Adrian Peterson in Minny this year.
--Speaking of D.C. did Rex Grossman actually look good last week. Like another Christina Applegate sitcom you just expect Rex to come, fail and disappear like so many times before, but like the successful debut of Up All Night maybe Rexy can be viable well into the season. I say this because the usually imaginative play calling of a Mike Shanahan offense was gone on Sunday. On first down Tim Hightower was picking up ground like he was trying to take the Somme in 1916. Yet from the point at which they had a 7 point lead late in the third quarter OC Kyle Shanahan showed all the imagination of Ralph Kramden's interior designer with a predictable, clock-eating run on first down over and over again that put Grossman in 2nd and 3rd and long situations against a good NYG rush. That they got out with a 14 point win may be testament to Grossman's and the defense's improvement...or then again maybe Plaxico Burress is right about Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. But at least it's a little interesting for Redskins fans moving forward.
Could the Redskins actually be "bursting" with potential this year?...No, I mean on the field, guy...--My friend Fred's last 6 jobs have been for companies that went out of business. His resume makes him look like a One Man Recession and consequently he is currently unemployed. Colts HC Jim Caldwell went 26-63 as a HC at Wake Forest (12-52 in conference) yet landed a position of which there are only 32 in the entire world. Sure Wake is no CFB power, but the coach that followed him, Jim Grobe immediately reeled of two straight winning seasons and a 64-61 record overall. The old-boy coaching network has been rehashing clowns like Dan Henning, Woody Widenhofer and Jerry Glanville for years and I was certain Caldwell was of that ilk. What I forgot is that Peyton Manning could make Herm Edwards look like Pop Warner. Now, however, with Manning on the shelf possibly for the year it'll be interesting to see how Jimmy C. rallies the troops in Indy. First week? Not so good guy.
--In a similiar vein beware of QBs like Josh Freeman and Tavaris Jackson (probably didn't have to clue you in to the latter) whose college stats, both personal and team record-wise, are not that great. The poster boy for this effect is ex-Brown Derek Anderson who was anointed the next coming of Brian Sipe after half a good season in 2007. Sure at 6-6, 240 pounds Anderson looked like a stud, but as Billy Beane said about looks vs. talent in Moneyball, "we're not selling jeans here". Instead folks should've focused on the fact that Anderson completed only 50.7% of his passes and averaged 1.5 INTs a game at Oregon State. But then again this is not news to fans of the Arizona Cardinals last year.
--And since we brought up Josh Freeman we should also mention that his Bucs fall on the wrong side of one the better predictors of team fortunes in recent years. Obviously in a mere 16 game season luck can play a big part in a team's fortunes. Thus wild swings do occur in won-loss records from year to year. Since 2008 10 teams have either improved or declined by 6 or more games from one season to the next and all of those teams have gone in the opposite direction the following year (the improvers win total declining and vice versa). In fact the difference has averaged a fairly significant 3.5 gain/loss per team. From 2009 to 2010 6 teams fit this criteria: Min. -6, Car. -6, Cin. -6, K.C. +6, St.L. +6, T.B. +7. More importantly by betting on the decliners (Min., Car., Cin.) and against the gainers (K.C., St.L., T.B) last week you went 5-1 ATS with the only loser being Carolina at +6.5 losing by 7 unless of course you "bought the hook"...and if you don't know what that means please be careful treading the Offshore Wagering waters.
I couldn't find a good cheerleader pic. But remembering to check for lumps is always worth a reminder.--The Jets won Week 1, but can someone explain why the "Overthrowin' Trojan" Mark Sanchez was allowed to heave 44 passes while a battering ram like Shonn Greene had only 10 carries. In the Redskins section of this article we called for the Shanahans to be more imaginative offensively, but that's because the Giants were moving fairly effectively against one of the worst defenses of 2010 and they needed to build their lead when the opportunity presented itself. The Jets, on the other hand, have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a strong O-Line. They can afford to pound the ball even if only to avoid turnovers, win the field position battle and hopefully reap the rewards later. Turning "Off The Marky" Mark loose in a shootout with Romo, Bryant, Austin and Witten hardly plays to your strength. Who knows maybe it was a one week experiment, maybe they learned their lesson, maybe the Uncle Buck of the Toe Suck Rex Ryan was distracted by a sandal-ed foot propped up in the first row. But please God for the sake of my Fantasy season let them come to their senses and feed Greene the rock in Week 2.
--And finally Pete Carroll and the Seahawks bring Tavaris Jackson and the youngest starting offensive line since Carolina in 1995 (their expansion year) to Pittsburgh today. In short if you have the Steelers as your Fantasy defense you win. In long (can I write that?) the Steelers are coming off a humiliating loss to Baltimore last week. In 2010 the 'Burghers lost 4 games and followed up with wins of 18, 6, 32 and 24 points with all the double digit wins coming at home. It's time to lay more wood than Tommy Lee in the Pam Anderson sex video...take the Steelers -14.
I'm disappointed...you mean they couldn't work a gun, muscle car and beer into this picture too?
