One Hand Holds The Bottle, One Hand Holds My Shame

...and no that is not a description of how I spent my New Year's Eve. In fact, aside from it being the alcoholic version of Amatuer Night, I generally stay in on NYE since I prefer, as George Thorogood once put it, to drink alone. I will not add the superfluous next line to that song since saying you "drink alone" already implies you're "all by myself", but then again I guess I shouldn't expect Bob Dylan "Desolation Row"-like lyrics (why were Ezra Pound and T.S. Eliot fighting in the Captain's Tower again?...you know what we'll discuss it later...) from a man who had a Cult Hit with a song titled "One Scotch, One Bourbon and One Beer". Still I've always found that chorus the laziest lyric since The Scorpions rhymed "here I am" with "hurricane"...and suddenly I'm starting to think maybe I should get out among people at least a little on these occasions. So moving on to...

Baylor-Washington...if you've been reading this blog from the beginning of the season you know that I don't find these wild shootouts to be "Instant Classics" and this one was no different. Seeing these offenses going up and down the field at will was like waiting for a contestant to miss a question on The Joker's Wild. It's just too easy. Now I know I'm a glass half empty kinda guy to begin with, but could these defenses at least mix in a third and long every now and then to make it difficult. If I wanna see hopeless I'll challenge my Special Ed. class to spell the word "Colonel" again...nobody got past the first "o".
    But then again maybe I'm just angry because I had Washington +9 as they became the first underdog in 56 non-overtime games to score 50+ points and not cover the spread. Like I tell my Genocide Studies class after assigning them the classic Rwanda history We Wish To Inform You Tomorrow We Will Be Killed With All Our Families...it's hard to get happy after that one. Though now that I think of it that's kinda implied in the title.

Nope...Washington +9 still hurts!

   Overall the bowl picks posted on these pages didn't fare much better. My selection of Florida State -3 survived over Notre Dame despite the best efforts of the FSU head coach who decided to go for two twice in the first minute of the fourth quarter, failed both times, and thereby nearly shoved pointspread victory into the jaws of defeat. I thought we put this problem to bed quite eloquently in our "Two Point Conversion Decisions Are Time Sensitive" article from September, but then again I shouldn't expect much from an adult who goes by the name Jimbo.
    In the other plays BeyondThe Bets.com's Underdog specials on Washington and Iowa got reamed by two long, spread covering TD runs by favorites who were in "need one more 1st down to run out the clock" mode. The latter play coupled with Fred's Pick of Iowa State in the Pinstripe Bowl left us feeling like we just got f--ked by the entire state of Iowa...kinda like Michelle Bachmann.
    We still have one play left on Oklahoma State -3.5 over Stanford in the Fiesta Bowl. And whether you follow these picks and analysis or "fade" them bigger than a '80s Kid & Play haircut check back as the Bowls run through January 9th and we'll try to provide more posts, picks and pre-pubescent humor along the way.

NFL
--A lot of things are disappointing. The people who frequent nude beaches, for example, are seldom the people you want to see with their clothes off in any setting let alone beneath the unremitting glare of the sun and having been to several Melissa Etheridge/Indigo Girls shows I can tell you unequivocally that lesbians don't generally look like they do in pornos or on The Howard Stern Show. But these things notwithstanding the AFC West this year has bummed me out.
    Now I thought the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks making the playoffs last year was the saddest thing I saw since I watched the manager at our local Dollar Store spill mustard on his tie then take it off and hang it on the rack for sale, but the clusterf--k that takes place today between Oakland, Denver, San Diego and Kansas City is like watching Tara Reid do Shakespeare.
    Briefly put the Broncos take the division with a win or a Raiders loss while the Raiders need both a win and a Broncos loss to get the #4 seed. Even worse is the fact that if the Bengals lose to Baltimore one of these trainwrecks could easily wind up with a Wild Card berth as the #6 seed where they'd get to face the fading, Tyler Yates-led Texans. All the scenarios are available here http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AmrG_3kh7GboIRsnz7_COtRDubYF?slug=ys-nfl_playoff_picture
    So what's gonna happen? Well last week we analyzed heck outta the NYG-NYJ matchup by comparing second half schedules and noting that the Giants slate was predominantly more difficult than the Jets thereby hiding the true talent levels of the two teams. Here it's hard to do the same since as division mates these teams have all played similiar skeds and all been terrible in their own way until it's like comparing apples to even crappier apples.
    For the Chargers and Raiders the problem is defense. In San Diego Norv Turner has always been an offensive guy and since he's all but out the door his defenders have little reason to put forth more than a cursory effort as they showed in Detroit last week. Meanwhile the Raiders have gone 2-3 in their last 5, but during than span their stop troops have been pounded like a baby photographer at Bjork's house. Their only wins coming courtesy of 3 Caleb Hanie interceptions and the Chiefs scoring a mere 13 points on 489 yards of offense which is the NFL version of showing up at Courtney Love's house with a fistful of Vicodin and not coming home with chlymidia. The number here is 48.5 and we'd lean heavily toward an over it weren't for the Raiders Red Zone problems and Phillip Rivers 2011 penchant for untimely INTs.
    In the other game the bloom came off the rose for Tim Tebow last week, but it's more the return of Kyle Orton for K.C. that has us leaning toward the Chiefs in Mile High. Kansas City has put up over 400 yards offense in both of Orton's starts and while he may not be outwardly bitter over his demotion/release by John Elway I'm sure he's a little more focused than usual. As for Tebow his poor effort against a banged up, seive-like Bills squad doesn't bode well for a strong performance vs. a D that has held 4 of it's last 5 oponents under 16 points including the Steelers and Packers. We see a Chiefs upset here so the onus will be on the Silver and Black to keep Al Davis' legacy alive and Bill Maher's tweeting fingers busy in Oakland.

What?...you want captions?...listen I'll pull the whole thing right now...

--As for the other AFC games with make or break playoff implications the Jets are at Miami clinging to the tiniest of hopes their season will continue. Fred's Picks are now at 7-5-1 (NFL only) and on a 2 game slide, but we have to concur once again with his selection which is the Dolphins -3. The loss to the Giants last week sent the J-Men's camp into disarray. Offensively there is talk of firing OC Brian Schottenheimer, overhauling the O-Line and committing more to the running game. But as my High School baseball coach told me when I tried to break an 0-17 slump by switching bats every time I came up...sometimes it's not the bow, it's the Indian. And in the NFL the Big Chief is the QB and quite frankly Mark Sanchez ain't exactly Crazy Horse at Little Bighorn. It appears Rex Ryan is gonna ride it out with the Overthrowin' Trojan for the foreseeable future, but with his D not playing up to the dominant levels of his first years in NY the chance to play for the big prize may be slipping farther and farther away.

--As for the Bengals they have done great things this year, but the fact remains that they have exactly one win over teams with winning records this year (24-17 at Tennessee). Still they lead the Titans, Jets, Raiders and Broncos by one game and with all those teams Dogs or small favorites today they could still sneak in even if they fall to the Ravens. And in fact drawing the Ravens in Cinncy as opposed to say Pittsburgh may actual be a minor break since Baltimore has enjoyed the road this year about as much as Syd Barrett registering losses to Tennesse, Jacksonville, Seattle and San Diego away from the Land of the Crab Cake. Still it would seem Tennessee playing away against the locked in and resting their starters Houston may have the best chance at stealing the #6 seed...so why is nobody talking about Mike Munchak as AFC Coach of the Year material?

--Finally the big one is Sunday Night with Dallas at the Giants. We're running late so see last week's post for our NYG analysis. On the flip side the Cowboys have won once in their last 4 and that was against the "Wake Me When This Is Over" Buccaneers, they have a slightly banged up QB, a shaky secondary and everything to lose here. We're no big Giant fans, but if their winning allows us to see plenty of shots of an egomaniacal, pompous ass like Jerry Jones squirm then what can we say but...G-I-A-N-T-S (sorry 'Boys fans).

--Oh yeah, our pick is Chiefs +3.

    Check back periodically for Bowl and Playoff bits. It's been a tolerable ride...and from me that's a rave...thanks for playing. B-E-E-R...what a good idea!!

Seriously, Lingerie Football's not catching on?...That's a head scratcher...Stop that. I mean it the other way...

A Bad Liver...The Deuce (NFL Notes)

    First off a "shout out" to the makers of Depends. For years the only thing holding me back from a completely sedentary football Sunday was going to the bathroom. Now with a mini-fridge full of beer to the right of my couch, bags of chips to my left and a Depends velcro-ed in place I never have to move. Hell, I dropped a deuce about 40 minutes ago and I never felt freer. I'm nothing if not an educator...

    Next for those who took our advice on the Illinois-Arizona State game we were not trying to pull a fast one by posting the line at -2.5. It actually opened at -2 and when we posted in the A.M. it was up to -2.5 at the Hilton. Later it jumped to -3.5 or -4 and if you got it there you lost. Sorry, but remember like I tell people about my drinking these picks are for recreational purposes only.

NFL WEEK 1

--Dear God Donovan McNabb has fallen apart faster than a futon in a fat guy's house. His 76 or so yard effort was the worst performance through the air this side of Reno, but it shouldn't come as a surprise. I believe I once described Philly HC Andy Reid as less of a Chippendale and more of a Chip-A-Hoy dancer, but he can sure coach up some offense. His teams have been Top 10 in points scored each of the last 4 years and players like Ricky Watters, Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, L.J. Smith and others have been Fantasy forces under him, Fantasy flops after moving on. This tells us that first off Reid puts his skill players in the best position possible to succeed and secondly that he knows when their effectiveness is up and jettisons them accordingly. D-Mac went from a 92.9 QB Rate his last year in Philly to a 77.1 last year in D.C.. Also at 35 he's two years past the cutoff of when QBs begin their decline according to Football Outsiders. Add in that he always was a cut below the Bradys, P. Mannings and Breeses of the world and it could be a long year for Percy Harvin and a buttload of carries for Adrian Peterson in Minny this year.

--Speaking of D.C. did Rex Grossman actually look good last week. Like another Christina Applegate sitcom you just expect Rex to come, fail and disappear like so many times before, but like the successful debut of Up All Night maybe Rexy can be viable well into the season. I say this because the usually imaginative play calling of a Mike Shanahan offense was gone on Sunday. On first down Tim Hightower was picking up ground like he was trying to take the Somme in 1916. Yet from the point at which they had a 7 point lead late in the third quarter OC Kyle Shanahan showed all the imagination of Ralph Kramden's interior designer with a predictable, clock-eating run on first down over and over again that put Grossman in 2nd and 3rd and long situations against a good NYG rush. That they got out with a 14 point win may be testament to Grossman's and the defense's improvement...or then again maybe Plaxico Burress is right about Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. But at least it's a little interesting for Redskins fans moving forward.

Could the Redskins actually be "bursting" with potential this year?...No, I mean on the field, guy...

--My friend Fred's last 6 jobs have been for companies that went out of business. His resume makes him look like a One Man Recession and consequently he is currently unemployed. Colts HC Jim Caldwell went 26-63 as a HC at Wake Forest (12-52 in conference) yet landed a position of which there are only 32 in the entire world. Sure Wake is no CFB power, but the coach that followed him, Jim Grobe immediately reeled of two straight winning seasons and a 64-61 record overall. The old-boy coaching network has been rehashing clowns like Dan Henning, Woody Widenhofer and Jerry Glanville for years and I was certain Caldwell was of that ilk. What I forgot is that Peyton Manning could make Herm Edwards look like Pop Warner. Now, however, with Manning on the shelf possibly for the year it'll be interesting to see how Jimmy C. rallies the troops in Indy. First week? Not so good guy.

--In a similiar vein beware of QBs like Josh Freeman and Tavaris Jackson (probably didn't have to clue you in to the latter) whose college stats, both personal and team record-wise, are not that great. The poster boy for this effect is ex-Brown Derek Anderson who was anointed the next coming of Brian Sipe after half a good season in 2007. Sure at 6-6, 240 pounds Anderson looked like a stud, but as Billy Beane said about looks vs. talent in Moneyball, "we're not selling jeans here". Instead folks should've focused on the fact that Anderson completed only 50.7% of his passes and averaged 1.5 INTs a game at Oregon State. But then again this is not news to fans of the Arizona Cardinals last year.

--And since we brought up Josh Freeman we should also mention that his Bucs fall on the wrong side of one the better predictors of team fortunes in recent years. Obviously in a mere 16 game season luck can play a big part in a team's fortunes. Thus wild swings do occur in won-loss records from year to year. Since 2008 10 teams have either improved or declined by 6 or more games from one season to the next and all of those teams have gone in the opposite direction the following year (the improvers win total declining and vice versa). In fact the difference has averaged a fairly significant 3.5 gain/loss per team. From 2009 to 2010 6 teams fit this criteria: Min. -6, Car. -6, Cin. -6, K.C. +6, St.L. +6, T.B. +7. More importantly by betting on the decliners (Min., Car., Cin.) and against the gainers (K.C., St.L., T.B) last week you went 5-1 ATS with the only loser being Carolina at +6.5 losing by 7 unless of course you "bought the hook"...and if you don't know what that means please be careful treading the Offshore Wagering waters.

I couldn't find a good cheerleader pic. But remembering to check for lumps is always worth a reminder.

--The Jets won Week 1, but can someone explain why the "Overthrowin' Trojan" Mark Sanchez was allowed to heave 44 passes while a battering ram like Shonn Greene had only 10 carries. In the Redskins section of this article we called for the Shanahans to be more imaginative offensively, but that's because the Giants were moving fairly effectively against one of the worst defenses of 2010 and they needed to build their lead when the opportunity presented itself. The Jets, on the other hand, have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a strong O-Line. They can afford to pound the ball even if only to avoid turnovers, win the field position battle and hopefully reap the rewards later. Turning "Off The Marky" Mark loose in a shootout with Romo, Bryant, Austin and Witten hardly plays to your strength. Who knows maybe it was a one week experiment, maybe they learned their lesson, maybe the Uncle Buck of the Toe Suck Rex Ryan was distracted by a sandal-ed foot propped up in the first row. But please God for the sake of my Fantasy season let them come to their senses and feed Greene the rock in Week 2.

--And finally Pete Carroll and the Seahawks bring Tavaris Jackson and the youngest starting offensive line since Carolina in 1995 (their expansion year) to Pittsburgh today. In short if you have the Steelers as your Fantasy defense you win. In long (can I write that?) the Steelers are coming off a humiliating loss to Baltimore last week. In 2010 the 'Burghers lost 4 games and followed up with wins of 18, 6, 32 and 24 points with all the double digit wins coming at home. It's time to lay more wood than Tommy Lee in the Pam Anderson sex video...take the Steelers -14.

I'm disappointed...you mean they couldn't work a gun, muscle car and beer into this picture too?