First Of The Day...D.H. Lawrence Returns (NFL-Week 5)

NFL-RANDOM THOUGHTS


--Word out of Dallas is that after last week's performance a distraught Tony Romo tried to throw himself in front of a bus...but he was intercepted. Actually we only kid cause we love (in other words the Lions were my Fantasy defense last week) and because when you make $10M and are banging this
well the blogosphere's snarky sarcasms bounce off you like rehab off Tom Sizemore. Keep gutting it out TR, if the 'Boys get healthy we may yet see a second half run.

--Some folks think we're doing a schtick here when we call these "drunken ramblings" and "semi-coherent streams of consciousness", but unfortunately we're not. Or to paraphrase George Costanza-these writings are not embellished because, sadly, they need no embellishment. They are just the pathetic story of my life as a crude, callow, oft-inebriated, immature man-child. Case in point is the fact that last week our original NFL post made mention of BTK look-a-like Brad Childress as Vikings HC. Of course Chilly was whacked halfway throurgh the 2010 season and replaced by current HC Leslie Frazier. I analyzed this mistake by creating a graph in which the X-axis represented Leslie Frazier's blandness and the Y-axis my state of buzzed-ness and found they met at "Who gives a F--K!" They'll be cleaning house and ushering in the...good God say it ain't so...Christian Ponder era in Minny by Week 8. And thanks to reader TomD for uncovering that faux pas your "Bowling Til' It Hurts" T-Shirt will be in the mail as soon as I fish it out of the bottom of my hamper.
Bind, Torture, Kill...ironically that seems to be what Childress did to Minnesota's fan base.

--On the surface parity is a real thing in the NFL with teams often going from "worst to first" in their divisions and making miraculous leaps forward or falls back in short order. Yet as we mentioned in previous posts sometimes you have to dig down deep to find out if a team's metamorphosis is real or a mirage. We've noted that unlike many others we are not that high on Tampa Bay this year. So far their 3-1 start has made us look less than prophetic, but again scratching below the surface we see their record may not be all it appears. Close games (those decided by 7 pts. or less) are a fact of life in the NFL and they are often won or lost not on merit, but rather a fluke turnover, bad call or some other stroke of luck. Last year one team, Atlanta, benefitted from +5 close wins and two teams, Cincinnati and Dallas, were -5 close losses. Betting on Cinncy/Dallas and against Atlanta this year has produced a 7-4-1 ATS record as luck or lack thereof balances out. Bringing this back to the Buccaneers their 3 wins this season have come by 4, 3 and 7 points respectively with the 4 and 7 point wins coming against winless Minnesota and Indianapolis. Today they are plus 2 at a well coached and surprising San Fran. The Niners have also benefitted from back-to-back close wins vs. Cinncy/Philly. We'll have our pick(s) below, but if Tampa isn't a go against this week you may want to consider it when they face New Orleans (twice) and Chicago over the next 4 weeks. Wow, an actual useful segment brought to you by coffee...the non-Irish variety!

Normally when your belt is bigger than your shorts it's cause you've beaten John Cena...not that were complaining.

--Once after failing to connect the ancient epic poet Homer to a quote from the Oddysey on a matching section of a test a student complained to me that he "had watched every episode of The Simpsons and could swear Homer never said that." I bring this up because no matter how much as an educator you think you're getting through to people there's always some idiot that brings you back to Earth. Last week's Dummy Du Jour was Ronnie Brown who attempted to throw a pass while being tackled by three 49ers at the goal line and ended up fumbling away a certain Eagles victory. If you missed it look here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=QZjS121zEZM
    Which brings us to another Eagles point, that being why did the signing of Nanandi Asomugha suddenly make Philly everyone's preseason "Dream Team". In 8 years as a starter in Oakland Asomugha's presence never helped the Raiders finish better than 18th in total D and 6 of the 8 years they finished 23rd or worse. Maybe it wasn't Nnandi's fault, but it does point out that defense is a team game and one player alone can't completely turn things around. The bigger issue in Eagleville appears to be the untimely passing of former DC Jim Johnson, an agressive and imaginative defensive architecht. In the two years since his death Philly has gone from 4th to 19th and 21st respectively (23rd this year) in total D. Today they get the even more defensively challenged Bills at -3/53 in a game where it may be time to right the ship or face a hostile fan base and sports radio crowd in the City of (less than) Brotherly Love.

--And before our selections a RIP to the legendary Al Davis. Love him or hate him...and Raider fans often vascillated from one extreme to the other...he did dedicate his life to making the NFL the best it could be. It was folks like Davis and the late Wellington Mara who put their own interests aside to develop and allow ideas like the AFL/NFL merger and profit sharing that were designed to not only benefit themselves, but to raise all ships-owners, players and even fans alike. They're the reason the NFL is what it is...the greatest spectator sport in the world today. Goodbye to a Great One!
You know I never really saw Davis and Ed Grimley together...

--Last week our pick of St. Louis took it on the chin like a far-sighted prostitute performing fellatio. On the bright side yesterday's college selections were 2-0 so maybe things are heating up. Who knows, but for the heck of it we'll throw out Philly -3 and San Francisco -2.5 as our picks. Fantasy sleeper of the day and moving forward is Stevan Ridley of New England who runs hard and will benefit this week and possibly going forward from an injury to Danny Woodhead. And finally we are not promoting these as plays, but people liked our Bad Teams=Under Bets Theory last week which went 2-1 so today's possibilities include K.C./Indy at 38, Ari./Minny at 45 and Cin./Jax. at 37. Plus Fred's pick of the day is Pittsburgh -3 which has it's logic (see our Pit./Sea. notes from Week 2) and maybe like Marshall's Gouda don't sleep on the Under 41 there. I'm done...bring on the booze!

Former WCW valet Major Gunns in what is literally the least amount of clothes we could find on a woman and still post it here.

Old school wrestling jokiness at the "Seminal Sluts" and "Crimson Mask" titles, Erin Andrews and the girls of ESPN at "Something In The Way She Says Gamecocks", Lenny Dykstra mockery at "The Dumbest Guy In The Room" and Rex Ryan and N.Y. Mets slamming under the eponymous headings.

Springboard...Sex Romp (NFL Notes-Week4)

    If idiocy had a slogan it would be, "There's Always Something There To Remind You". This week's version comes courtesy of the TV show The Office and the hallways of my school where apparently "Planking" is still alive. But as I told my students if you think you're being innovative and camp forget about it. In college we "planked" all the time only then we called it "Passing Out"...so get over yourself.

    But if that's not enough yesterday in NYC they held "A Slut Walk Against Sexual Assault". Seriously...and I know, how do I get on the mailing list? For the uninitiated hundreds of women dressed in lingerie and bikinis paraded through the streets of Greenwich Village carrying signs reading "End Rape and Rape Culture". I couldn't agree more, but is this really the way to go about it? It reminds me of the women with implants and low cut tops who are disgusted when the toothless guy pushing a shopping cart stares at them. I'm sure you were aiming your cleavage at the guy in the Armani suit, driving the BMW, but it ain't no Smartbomb. There's bound to be some collateral damage so quit complaining or button up.

    On a bright note, however, the Atlanta Brave and Boston Red Sox 2011 Playoff T-shirts arrived on the Gold Coast today much to the delight of Senegalese children throughout the country.

NFL

--N.Y. Giant fans this week had fun at the expense of Michael Vick who claimed in his postgame presser that the refs weren't protecting him like other QBs in the league. Vick believes his mobility and athleticism causes him to be treated differently. More like a RB than a pocket passer ala Brady or Brees. There may be some validity to this claim, but don't expect any sympathy. A convicted felon, in the past Mike has complained about fan attention (where have you gone Ron Mexico?), his dog fighting sentence, his contracts, his coaches and so on. Or as pro wrestling manager Jim Cornette used to say, "if this guy was screwed as often as he claims he'd have struck oil".
    So here's an idea, if they're going to treat you like a RB then run. Last week Vick passed up 3 opportunities to run for a first down in favor of throwing upfield across his body. In addition the Eagles were stopped at least 4 times on short yardage without one bootleg or run/pass option rollout attempted. Sure you can throw, but the tremendous run threat that comes with it is what makes you elite. Standing stock-still in the pocket as the rush has time to close in around you is like Garth Brooks chucking country music to be a moody, rock star...er...ah...well don't pull a Chris Gaines, that's always solid advice.

H.L. Mencken it's not, but still poignant. And they wonder why newspapers are going the way of the Dodo?

--Speaking of the Eagles short yardage offense the choice of Andy Reid to go for it on 4th and 1 from midfield with a 16-14 lead and 13 minutes to go is questionable enough, but the idea that the play call in that situation was a straight ahead run to McCoy makes it ridiculous. On the drive prior the Iggles drove 88 yards to a 1st and goal inside the Giants one and on 3 running plays between the tackles lost a yard and kicked the FG. If you didn't have a more imaginative play call than one similiar to the previous failures punt. Reid and OC Marty Morninwheg certainly have years more play calling experience than I'll ever have, but just because a Harvard PHD in Math tells me 2 + 2 = 5 doesn't mean I have to believe him.

--Still that 4th down decision is nowhere near as bad as the one made by the man who replaced BTK killer look-a-like Brad Childress, Vikings HC Leslie Frazier. With 11 minutes left and leading by 3 Fraz decided to go for it on 4th and 1 from the Lions 17. To this point the Vikes had rushed for less than 100 yards and 39 of that had come on trick-eration to Percy Harvin. Still Minny OC Bill Musgrave went with a play call so vanilla it made beige shrug and the FB dive to Toby Gearhart was stuffed for no gain. Alright maybe using Peterson as a decoy showed some imagination, but the bigger issue is turning down the chip shot FG.
    Today's NFL talking heads like to use basketball terminology and deem any lead of 8 points or less a "one possession game." This is overly simplistic. Without breaking out some esoteric numbers we all know that getting into FG range is far easier than getting in the end zone. Thus a 1-3 point lead is really more like a "half possession game" for lack of a better term while a 4-8 point lead is "one possession". By kicking the FG Frazier would've pushed the score from half to one possession territory. Additionally if the high powered Detroit offense came back and scored a TD Minny would be down 1 or "half" a possession as opposed to 4 and a "full" possession. I've rambled on too long and there's a lot more to the discussion, but I do think the "half" vs. "full" possession designation has merit so use it whenever you can...it'll be our "thing"...or not.

--And like another commercial for a Zooey Deschanel or Whitney Cummings comedy can we get rid of the Wildcat already. It stopped working years ago, but teams still insist on trotting it out 3-4 times a week despite what is probably a less than 25% success ratio. The problem is that unless you have a guy like ex-Jet/current Bill Brad Smith who can legit pass the Wildcat actually limits your options instead of expanding them. The defense sees a Mark Sanchez or Chad Henne awkwardly trot out to a flanker position, adjust to the formation and attack the run lanes immediately. Thus the Wildcat relies on the element of surprise and four years removed from it's adoption that's gone. Conversely the shotgun offense, which was resurrected by Tom Landry in the '80's, continues to thrive and is used more than ever in today's game because it opens up your options (run, pass, rollout) and keeps the defense from over-committing.

Actually in this instance I'd prefer not to be in the Shotgun.

--In a new feature my friend Fred, an itinerant gambler from back in the days when you went to the local Thoroughbred or Harness track, bet a race and then sat around for 30 minutes taking in the smell of horse crap and body odor until the next wagering opportunity came along, has proclaimed Curtis Painter the "worst NFL QB he's ever seen" (Ryan Leaf  and JaMarcus Russell excepted I assume) making his Pick of the Week: Tampa Bay -10.5 on Monday night.

--George Carlin once said that "twat" qualifies as a dirty word because it has no other possible meaning or in other words, "Twat's twat and that's that!" Similiarly bettors like to play the Over when betting totals because it's never definitively Under until the final seconds tick off, but when it's Over, it's Over. Nonetheless we have spotted a trend that indicates that quality teams will score no matter the opponent, but poor teams struggle vs. even the most inept defenses. Last week both New Orleans and New England played games that vaulted over Totals in the mid-50s, but games between lower tier teams like Carolina/Jacksonville and Cleveland/Miami struggled to reach the 30s. The key to the Under is not stopping teams cold, that rarely happens in today's NFL, it's turning TDs into FGs and botching potential scoring drives. None of the teams in the aforementioned lower tier games has a great defense, but their opponents struggled so mightily in the Red Zone and settled for FGs so often that the games turned into "wars of attrition" to see which side could win the field position and time of possession battle and sneak out with a win. If you're buying into this today's "weak sister" matchups and potential Under plays look like St.L/Was. 44, Cle./Ten. (throw out the records) 38.5 and Min./K.C. 40. Like they say on Cinemax, "discretion is advised".

--As for our selection of the day we're going to try St. Louis +3 over Washington. John Gruden may have hit on the key to Rex Grossman Monday night when he pointed out R-Gro (I'm starting something, give it a chance) was much better throwing to the middle of the field than to the sidelines due to lack of arm strength. Keep an eye on this going forward, but for now we're thinking letdown after a Monday Night heartbreaker and now going on the road.

No reason...but your welcome!

My Doctor says I'm not getting enough hops in my diet so time to rectify that. Follow us here, on Twitter at "sprtcom102" or at "Bowling Til' It Hurts" on Facebook. Nihilism...it's my last hope!

And as always the old school wrestling humor with Piper, Magnum TA, Bundy & more is under the "Crimson Mask" titles and the Diva editions with Sunny, Precious, Elizabeth & Sable are under "Seminal Sluts". Women of ESPN joshing is at "Something in the Way She Says Gamecocks" and Rex Ryan foot fetish & N.Y. Met bashing is under the obvious headings.