Sunday, January 2, 2011

Kansas City Chiefs

NOTE: This is the first in our playoff team previews. New York Jets post up Monday night. Selections up Friday. Recaps of all games next week. Thanks for reading.
GENERAL: The history of the Chiefs is a story of feast or famine, a series of brief periods of success surrounded by more bad runs than a Cholera epidemic. Whether this current incarnation is in the midst of Darfur or dinner at Kirstie Alley's house is hard to tell yet, as we'll show, but for better or worse they're back in the playoff picture for the first time in 4 years and that's an accomplishment in itself.
    The Chiefs began their franchise life not in KC or even the NFL, but as the Dallas Texans of the AFL, a league that if those old NFL Films videos tell us anything was a place that never saw a no-look, over the shoulder lateral it didn't like. However, with the population of Dallas unable to support two teams owner and AFL founder Lamar Hunt moved the squad to the BBQ capital of the Midwest in 1963 and changed them to the Chiefs thereby saving the league from the Canadian Football League's longtime "Roughriders" debacle where two teams have the same nickname (who owned the second  Roughrider franchise, Raymond Babbitt- "yeah definitely have to name the team Roughriders, definitely Roughriders"). At that point the Hank Stram-led club was, like Jimmy Cagney in White Heat, on top of the world having just won the AFL Championship in 1962. The good times would roll through their appearance, along with that giant papier mache Chief player, in Super Bowl I before culminating with their first NFL Championship upon beating the Vikings in SB IV.
   From there, though, the oil tank proceeded to blow them sky high as Stram lost the magic, Marv Levy was prematurely ejected after the '82 strike season and John Mackovic, a coach so mild-mannered he could make Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Jimmy_Carter#.22Malaise.22_speech) look like something out of Knute Rockne: All-American, bolted back to college after leading the team to its first playoff appearance in 15 years in 1986. Then after a two-year brain fart known as Frank Gansz the postseason-challenged Marty Schottenheimer took over and led the club to extra games in 7 of the next 9 seasons. But after losing twice in their first playoff game after 13-3 seasons the players, fans and management soured on "The Schott". The Chiefs would then see the postseason only twice in the next 12 years before coach Todd Haley and GM Scott Pioli got their chance to right the ship in 2009.
OFFENSE: When Todd Haley left his Offensive Coordinator job at Arizona to take the coaching reins here he found more holes to fill than the Times crossword at Heidi and Spencer's house. Going from Kurt Warner/LarryFitzgerald/Anquan Boldin to Tyler Thigpen/Dwayne Bowe/Mark Bradley was kinda like going from Kim Kardashian to Khloe without even getting a roll with Kourtney along the way, but still  he persevered. Ostensibly the QB of the future here was expected to be Brodie Croyle, but like Scarlett Johansson's supposed super hotness, Pioli and Haley just weren't getting it. Unfortunately the best free agent QB on the market was Matt Cassel who in his entire college career and first three seasons as a pro threw less passes than Mike Ditka on a gay singles cruise (79 in 7 years) before breaking out due to Tom Brady's injury in 2008. After stumbling in Year 1 Cassel found his Game Manager groove in 2010, not throwing often or for many yards (ranked 29 and 28 respectively), but developing a game more efficient (27/5 TD/Int. ratio) than a Smart Car if only slightly prettier.
    The real engine driving this team is their top ranked running game paced by Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. Actually it's mostly paced by Charles with his 1300+ yards and ridiculous 6.4 yard average. And that's after starting the year as backup to Jones in the biggest injustice since Milli Vanilli won a Grammy in 1989 (I blamed it on the rain, but that's just me). If the ground game is going it opens things up for Dwayne Bowe who thrilled many an unsuspecting Fantasy owner this year by bouncing back from an injury/issue filled 2009 with a 1000 yard/15 TD effort this year. The rest (Moeaki/Chambers/McCluster) is just filler. Still against a schedule so soft that Boise State has tried to lock it in for next year the new Chiefs offense was in the Top 12 in points, but whether they can function at that level against the Jets or the Ravens is still to be seen.
DEFENSE: In keeping with the aforementioned theme the Chiefs defense improved greatly in 2010, but the question remains if those improvements were legit or a scheduling mirage. The development of young, highly touted players like Tamba Hali, Glenn Dorsey, Javon Belcher and rookie Eric Berry plus the return of LB Derrick Johnson from injury suggests the former, however a perusal of the skeds from the last two years raises some doubts. In terms of points and yards allowed K.C. went from the 30th ranked D in 2009 to #10 this year while gaining 6 wins, a seemingly significant improvement. However, according to Pro Football Reference the Chiefs faced one of the weakest schedules in 2010, including matchups with the NFL's version of the Sun Belt Conference- the NFC West- after having played a middle of the pack slate in 2009. In fact the whole thing may be the biggest house of cards this side of Madoff Investments as in the past two years Todd Haley's Comets have gone 2-6 versus playoff teams with those wins coming at the hands of 7-9 Seattle in 2010 and the Steelers in a 2009 overtime game in which they were outgained 516-282. In the 6 losses to playoffs teams they were outscored by an average of 18.2 ppg.
   All this bodes poorly for a deep playoff run except for the fact that by virtue of winning their division the Chiefs get at least 1 home game in a stadium where they went a dominant 7-1 this year. As hostile environments go Arrowhead Stadium is considered only slightly less dangerous for visiting teams than the Double Deuce Roadhouse before Patrick Swazye's Dalton showed up. So even if it's one and done K.C. fans will at least get to exercise their vocal chords and, hey, it beats hell out of the Todd Blackledge era any day.
I pulled a hammy...and a few other things, just looking at this picture.