This week we handicap the jumbled NL Central race where 4
teams legitimately have a shot at the title. We’d also like to note we were
correct about the Huston Street trade freeing up a trade of Chase Headley to
the Yankees because, well, as my ex-wife always reminded me it doesn’t happen
often. But first there’s this…
PEN PERUSALS: Last
week we wrote about Anaheim’s acquisition of Huston Street, but practically
every contender could use another good arm or two in the bullpen, none more
than Detroit and Baltimore, so let’s look at the names being tossed around…Antonio “You Magnificent” Bastardo (Phi.)- This
guy should be stocking up on potable water because Detroit seems to have him on
their short list. Loved this guy when he came up, but today I’m not a buyer.
His velocity has been like a Tom Petty encore lately…Free Fallin’…and he’s
never had a BB/9 rate under 4.00. His standard numbers look good, but his BABIP
is at .223 after topping .285 the last two seasons and at a 68.5% LOB Alan
Hale, Jr. stranded more people. He is lefty though and the less innings Phil
Coke gets the better. Still I think a nicer target might be Wesley Wright (Chi.)- the last time he
allowed a run (5/23) there was peace in Gaza…you know, sort of…The problem is
the Cubs have used him almost exclusively as a LOOGY meaning his ability vs. RH
is questionable. Still with many games to go vs. the LH-heavy Indians he could
be worth a look. James Russell (Chi.)-
on the other hand we say is not. Also LH, Russell’s BB rate is up at 4.50/9
this year and his FIP has only seen the good side of 4.00 once in 5 years. He’s
a sabermetric nightmare and the switch to the AL might just expose those flaws.
Bringing us to Jonathan Papelbon (Phi.)-
This guy’s velocity numbers have
taken a downward spiral of Amy Winehouse-ian proportions…4 MPH off both his
fastball and splitter, a K/9 at a career low 7.81, but he keeps getting saves
when Philly gives him the opportunity. Problem is he’s announced he’ll only
accept a trade to a team that will use him exclusively as a closer. That means
Detroit would have to jettison the Joe Nathan Project so Baltimore where Zach
Britton has a dead fish-like grip on the role may be a possible destination.
The sweetest plum of them all though might be Andrew Miller (Bos.)- it’s unsure the direction the Beantowners are
taking, but word is they may dangle Miller for prospects (though dangling
things for prospects has never worked very well for me). A former #6 overall
pick that failed as a starter in Det./Mia. He’s become dominant in the pen
since 2012 with a K/9 over 13.00 over that period. This year he’s at 14.54 K/9
with a 1.73 FIP. He could be an instant closer in the NL or a super setup man
in say Anaheim…stay tuned.
Get ready Baltimore Paps may be dancing his way into your hearts!
RED SOX: A friend
of friend played low Minor League ball with recently cut Red Sox C A.J.
Pierzynski. Knowing his reputation as a self-centered jerk I asked the guy for
his opinion of Pierzynski as a person to which he replied, “imagine the biggest
A-Hole you ever met then multiply it by 10!” Of course Pierzynski was in his
early 20s then and we all mellow over time. Heck, I haven’t dumped my empty
White Castle boxes on someone’s lawn in years…ok, months, but that E-Harmony
b-tch had it coming….and it looked like at 37 he was a good fit to replace
Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Uh…not so…Pierzynski was released and afterward several
Sox players complained he spent too much time on his cell phone even laughing
and texting folks immediately after losses. Miraculously after A.J.’s departure
Boston went 8-2 and closed the gap for the 2nd Wild Card to 6.
Jon Lester has been lights out, John Lackey is always solid
and most importantly Clay Bucholz has gone 2-1 with a 24/1 K/BB in his last 4
starts since changing the grip on his changeup (then screwed this article last
night in Tor.). With Seattle struggling and the AL a paragon of parity beyond
OAK/ANA/DET who knows. I’m not a believer in clubhouse chemistry and
intangibles but could cutting out the A.J. Pierzynski cancer be this year
version of the Bobby Valentine purge? Or point toward a 2015 rebound?
WHY? AWARD: This
week’s award goes to Cub SP Tsuyoshi Wada who will be #5 in the rotation for
the foreseeable future. The Orioles brought Wada over from Japan at 31 years
old to, I assume, act as translator/caddy for Wei-Yei Chen. His last season in
Japan he topped 90 on the radar gun exactly once and Baltimore promptly ditched
him in Norfolk, Virginia and forgot about him. It’s not that Wada can’t win in
the short term. In fact Fantasy-wise he’s not a bad pickup to junkball his way
past the Padres/Phillies/Rockies of the world. The question is why leave
youngsters like recently acquired Dan Straily (positive AL to NL move
possibilities-see Jake Arrieta below) and Dallas Beeler in Iowa when the 33 yo
Wada will be home sipping sake by the time the Cubs contend?
NL CENTRAL: In
order of predicted finish…
Milwaukee- They’ve
overcome their pre-ASG swoon to take back first and have just enough pitching
it appears to get a potent offense to the finish line. Kyle Lohse and Yovani
Gallardo are solid if unspectacular, but Matt Garza may be a concern. His K’s
are at their lowest rate since his move to the NL and last week he lasted all
of 1 out vs. Washington putting up a Bill James GameScore of 17 (114 is tops)
and considering, that like filling out your name on the SATs, you get 20 points
for just stepping on the mound that’s troubling. The key could be if Swingman
Tyler Thornburg can return in August. That would send struggling prospect Jimmy
Nelson to the minors, floundering Marco Estrada to the pen and give Milwaukee 5
arms that while not Wainwright-ian can, with their offense, get them a win
every night.
Keg for a body, tap for a nose...a mascot the whole family can enjoy!
St.Louis- We had
them right there with Mil. until the Yadier Molina injury. Now we have them
right there with Pit. If Matt Holliday was having his usual year and/or
prospect Oscar Taveras came out and toreit up we might be higher on them. As it
is Adam Wainwright, Jeter-gate aside, and Lance Lynn are a formidable duo on
top of this staff and Adams/Carpenter/Peralta keep the offense moving. Toss in
the sudden improvement of young 2B Kolten “Don’t F*ck With The” Wong(s) and
there’s still plenty of hope for the Division or a WC. How soon Yaddy and Fozzy
Bear’s favorite player Michael Wacha can get back will determine how high they
can fly.
Pittsburgh- On
the one hand we’d like to see this small-market darling succeed. On the other
hand there’s something about an ownership that lets it’s best pitcher (A.J.
Burnett) and one of its best hitters (Marlon Byrd-.843 OPS after a deadline
deal) walk away then bring in the replacement-level stylings of Edison Volquez
and claim they’re committed to winning. That said all we have to add, and we
can’t put this forcefully enough, is Gerrit Cole! If the former #1 overall pick
comes back to the rotation next week, as planned, there’s hope that there’s
just enough pitching, just enough hitting and just enough of Andrew McCutchen
to get them back to the playoffs. Otherwise a staff of Morton/Locke/Volquez/Worley
does not a World Series contender make.
Cincinnati- In the
1977 Burt Reynolds/Kris Kristofferson film Semi-Tough
character Puddin Patterson as played by soon-to-be Magnum P.I. sidekick Roger
E. Mosley says, “…when Santa Claus givin’ out presents Santa Claus wears a
beard, but right now Santa Claus eatin’ ribs and Santa Claus don’t wear no
beard when Santa Claus eatin’ ribs…and that’s what you need to know’about Santa
Claus!” As for the Reds they have the best pitching top to bottom in the
division, a killer closer in Aroldis Chapman and a stud at the plate in Todd
Frazier, but Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips won’t return until late August the
earliest, they’ve gone 2-8/L10 without them and are now 5.5 GB…and that’s what
you need to know ‘bout the Reds!
Chicago Cubs- The
Cubs are only the 3rd worst team in baseball so like Carl Spackler
said in Caddyshack about being
granted total consciousness on his deathbed by the Dali Lama…”they got that
going for ‘em”. Otherwise the Cubs are currently treading water and collecting
prospects in hopes of a breakout in the near future. Some say that will be in
2015, but frankly we ain’t seein’ it. Yes the organization is doing the right
thing, probably the only thing, they can do to turn this mess around, but it’s
gonna take time. Looking at the organizational depth charts there’s plenty of
top prospects, but few, particularly, on the pitching side who figure to hit
the majors with any impact till 2016. 1B Anthony Rizzo, 2B Arismendy Alcantara,
SS Starlin Castro and #1 prospects Addison Russell and Javier Baez portend a
strong infield with something leftover. The OF, however, is a different story
with most prospects 2 years away from the big time. Toss in that next year’s
projected Ace is the poster child for the AL to NL success story Jake Arrieta
(4.65/5.05/6.20 ERA in 3 full seasons in Bal., sub-2.80 ERA in 23 NL starts)
and this is not exactly a team on the cusp. Wait til next, next year should be
the cry in Cub-ville come this winter.
Comments are tolerated…so feel free to indulge…More MLB and
maybe some NFL soon!
