While The Mentally Ill Sit Perfectly Still (Again With MLB Notes)

--Last week NBC cancelled three of the best written comedies on network TV by axing Community, Parks & Recreation and 30 Rock in one Al Dunlap-style house cleaning. Word is canning this trio has made room for another Matthew Perry comedy vehicle which is kinda like the San Diego Chargers giving Norv Turner one more chance...oh wait... I mean, what the Hell, why not give Jenna Elfman another sitcom while were at it? Or did they do that already and call it Whitney? Additionally NBC announced that Anne Heche will be given one of the newly opened 30 minute Thursday night spots though this may be more of a "pity pilot" due to Ms. Heche previously being diagnosed with what the medical profession calls "crazyballs". Good luck with all that, if it's even possible to fall to 5th in the ratings you're well on your way.

--In other Reality TV/pseudo-Sports news production is under way for the Bikini Hockey League because when most people look at the NHL they think, "not bad, but if only there was more chance for hypothermia and nipples that could cut glass..." Plans are for the "too-ugly for The Bachelor" contestants to live together in a mansion while they compete for spots on the handful of proposed teams before returning to their respective poles when the whole thing tanks. If nothing else it should give new meaning to such Hockey lingo as "butt-ending", "5-hole" and "putting the biscuit in the basket". If you're interested I'd suggest keeping abreast (pun intended) of, I'm guessing, the Versus Network schedule for the debut episode.

Looking at the skimpy bottoms I'm not sure I want to see this league's take on the "Playoff Beard"...

--QUICK HITS: Odd to hear that the broken zip-line incident that led to a case of flesh eating bacteria occurred in Georgia...cause when I hear "flesh eating bacteria" I automatically think "Guatemala". Is that wrong?...Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg was married on Saturday once again confirming my long held belief that making lots of money does not necessarily mean you are smarter...And finally the MLB firing of Ryan Braun steriod case arbritrator Shyam Das was sadly not big enough news for the New York tabloid papers to go with my suggested back page headline "DAS BOOT-ED". I have no more to add since I never actually saw the 1981 critically acclaimed German psychological thriller and have been told by the Film & Theatre teacher here at school that the hotel room rental of Das Booty I once purchased is only remotely related to the original.

And with this on to baseball...

--On May 6th Phillies starter Cole Hamels drilled Nationals rookie OF Bryce Harper with a pitch for what many claimed was no apparent reason though others might conclude merely coming to the park with this Coon-Skin hat of  a haircut (refresh page if pic doesn't show) and enough eye black to frighten The Missing Linkwould be reason enough. Most likely Hamels plunked the phenom as some sort of "hazing/right of passage" type deal which considering Harper trotted to first, later stole home with the game's first run and Hamels ended up with a five game suspension wasn't exactly the most "team first" move he could've made.

    Let's start by saying the whole idea of mean-spirited hazing of this nature is stupid. It reminds us of those news reports you hear every so often of new recruits getting sodomized at a high school football training camp or military school. First off when did sticking things up another guy's ass outside of Spring Break at Fire Island become an all-join-in recreational activity. And secondly if, as psychologists tell us, this is the hetrosexual BMOCs way of protecting their turf wouldn't it come to backfire when word got out about what was taking place and every Glee-ed up, friend of Dorothy in the school was trying out for the team?

    This whole incident also gave the Neanderthal-ish John Kruk another chance to trot out the riduculous old school story of how if you so much as hit a hard foul ball against guys like Sal "The Barber" Maglie you'd wind up having to dust off your baggy flannels the next time you stepped up to the plate. I assume this theory is based on the idea that if you can't do your job well then nobody should which is just plain dumb. If you don't want guys to hit homeruns off you here's an idea...make better pitches. Don't make the problem worse by getting behind in the count or giving up a free baserunner next time around in an effort to massage your misplaced macho ego.

    Now this doesn't mean that every hurler has to turn into the Marquis of Queensbury on the mound. If an opponent is thought to be throwing at your teammate then certainly retaliation is deserved. Similiarly, if a batter stands at the plate admiring his HR like he's auditioning to play an extra in the remake of Close Encounters of the Third Kind  then again plunk away. Or in short as Steve Martin's character advised John Candy's Del Griffith about telling a story in Planes, Trains & Automobiles  ...have a point. And if the Phillies miss the playoffs or a Division title by one game remember it may just be a suspension forced Kyle Kendrick fill-in start that tipped the balance.

--Ever since the Nationals drafted Stephen Strasburg the baseball media has been in David Clyde meets Todd Van Poppel style overdrive hype mode. And now that Strasburg is delivering on his promise in a full season, blinkers off the pitch count scenario pundits are looking everywhere from the ill-fated Herb Score to the coke-sated Dwight Gooden for rookie pitcher comps and still finding them all wanting.

    So how good is Strasburg? Well before you go all Sidd Finch on us consider this...Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw were born 4 months apart. Had they both declared for the draft in 2006 it's debatable who would've went first, but Strasburg opted for 3 years at San Diego State before bursting on the scene. Kershaw struggled with some control issues early on, but is now the reigning NL Cy Young and flat-out nasty. Strasburg's learning curve was shortened by the polish and maturity he gained in college ball...and lo and behold there they are this year with identical 4-1 records. They've both walked 13 and while Strasburg has a dozen more Ks Kershaw tops him in ERA.

    So in other words Stephen Strasburg is Clayton Kershaw 2.0 and that's damn good, but he's not going to change the way the game's played. That said combined with talented, young hurlers Jordan Zimmerman and Gio Gonzalez the Nats have a formidable Big 3. Here's hoping 24 year-old, potential lights-out closer Drew Storen returns by the All Star break and management is not afraid to upgrade the offense come trade deadline time. If so there could be meaningful Fall baseball in our nation's capital for the first time since Goose Goslin and The Big Train roamed the diamonds.

--So like everything else surounding the under-achieving Angels this year writers would have us believe that the recent firing of batting coach Mickey Hatcher is really "All About Albert". However, like most things in life and everything in politics this is only partially true. So let's play "What's Albert's Fault in Anaheim" and try to decide if there's any hope that this whole thing won't turn out to be the biggest bust outta Disneyland since John Carter:

1. Pujols Slump-ALL ABOUT ALBERT: This would seem pretty self-evident, but apparently it's not. Everyone from Angel management to ESPN talking heads to most recently Alex Rodriguez has weighed in with the theory that Pujols poor early season numbers are related to moving to the AL. Once he adjusts to the pitchers and umpires, Ball Girls and blades of grass in the Junior Circuit, they say, a finely honed athlete like Albert will go on a prolonged tear. Hmmm, it doesn't seem to be bothering a fat, pantload like Prince Fielder that much. Nor did it stop Adrian Gonzalez from posting career numbers in Boston last year. Sure there are examples that back this idea up, but all this arguing does is obscure some very real warning signs that cropped up in Pujols' numbers last year.

    For most of this year the story that dogged Pujols was when/if he was going to hit his first HR. When he finally did in Game #29 the highlight was run as often as the Shawshank Redemption on TNT complete with head twisting shots of Blue Jays starter Drew Hutchinson repeated ad nauseum until you'd think someone had just shot him with a high-powered rifle from the 2nd floor of the Toronto Book Depository. Once that was out of the way everyone thought Albert would go back to being Albert, but it hasn't been quite that easy. Fourteen more games later he has a couple additional HRs, but still sports an OPS not seen in Anaheim since the days of Dave Chalk and Rance Mulliniks to go along with a .253 OBP.

    And while everyone looks at the power numbers the latter figure may be the biggest concern. Looking back the most notable number from 2011 may be that Pujols walked only 61 times, the lowest total of his career and the first time he was under 90 walks since 2005. Even if you try to mitigate this by pointing to time missed due to a broken wrist, as a percentage number things were even worse with his .366 OBP representing the worst On-Base tally of his career by 28 points and only the second time the figure dipped below .400 (2002-.394). Indicating that either he's expanding the zone and trying to do too much or that pitchers weren't as worried about pitching to him as they were putting on another runner and pitching to Matt Holliday who by the way will not be signing a $254 million contract any time soon.
   
    Albert's doubles, SLG% & OPS were also career lows. Solid numbers all, but still below the standards of Pujols himself and the contract he signed. No doubt things will get better as the season progresses, but unless it's of an other-worldly nature this will likely pull the Halos from next to last in the AL in runs scored to the middle of the pack which wasn't enough to allow them to catch the Rangers or even make the playoffs the last two years.

2. Angels Record (18-25)-ABOUT HALF ABOUT ALBERT: In 2011 the Angels won 86 games, but still fell 10 games short of the division and 5 shy of the WC. The club finished 2nd in the AL in Runs Allowed, but a dismal 10th in Runs Scored. Despite the addition of C.J. Wilson offense was the real concern this off-season. In many ways it would seem things have improved considerably. Mark Trumbo is crushing the ball, Mike Trout arrived and excelled, Vernon Wells has improved from abysmal to mediocre, Kendry Morales is back and hitting over .300 and  C Chris Ianetta despite a Tom Egan-esque BA has clubbed 3 HRs and drawn double digit walks in 77 Plate Appearances something it took Jeff Mathis a full season and nearly 300 PAs to do last year. With Macier Izturis/Alberto Callaspo taking some of the sting out of a slumping Erick Aybar that leaves Pujols seemingly holding the bag for much of the run scoring blues.

    On the other hand Pujols is scoring baserunners that are on in his At Bats at about the same percentage he always has (18%). The problem is he's on pace to see far fewer on than at any time in St. Louis as Anaheim languishes 12th in the AL with an OBP of only .305. Throw in a bunch of shaky starts from Ervin Santana and the usually consistent Dan Haren along with a few blown leads by the bullpen and it can't be all Albert's fault. Nonetheless the team is third in the AL in Runs Allowed and if Pujols was just playing to the numbers of the average MLB First Baseman Anaheim might be at or over .500 which is why we're giving him a good share, but not all the blame.

--Mickey Hatcher Firing-ONLY A LITTLE ABOUT ALBERT: Our theory on this may surprise some who have been reading sportswriters trying laboriously to link a public spat between the Batting Coach and Pujols from late April to Hatcher's firing. But we're not buying it and instead feel the writing was on the wall this off-season when owner Arte Moreno cleaned out the front office after twice missing the playoffs while getting passed like a Yugo on the Autobahn by Texas in the AL West.

    Jerry DiPoto was brought over from the Diamondbacks to be GM and immediately announced that he wasn't just establishing an Analytical group (read Sabermetric) in the front office, but turning the entire front office into an Analytical group. Immediately gone were the days of slap-hitting, base stealers like Chone Figgins and Reggie Willits at power positions. Mark Trumbo was moved to 3B despite fielding trepidations, Sciosia favorite and noted game-caller Jeff Mathis was shipped to Toronto in favor of the power and eye of Ianetta and the slow starting Peter Bourjos quickly gave way to Baseball Prospectus cover boy Trout.

    Whether these moves work is another question, but they are a step in a new direction. Hatcher, on the other hand, represented the old bunting, base stealing, free swinging Angels who in the last 12 years only finished in the top 3 in OBP once, but in the bottom 3rd on four different occasions. Pujols certainly didn't help Hatcher's case any as we pointed out above, but if the Angels batting coach had been one of a more Sabermetric-friendly approach he probably would've survived the ax.

    So where does this all leave our beloved Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim? Offensively things should improve as Pujols heats up, but they need to come a long way to get to respectable from their current place of 13th and 12th in the AL in Runs and OPS respectively. That's with Trumbo going off, the 20 year old Trout playing like an All-Star and Morales trying to return from over a year and a half on the DL. Regression, pitcher adjustment and fatigue could sap the numbers of all three meaning in the end this O may not be much better than 2011.

    Pitching-wise it would be hard to improve on their last year's #1 in ERA and 2 in Runs Allowed not to mention the 34-18 record they got out of Jered Weaver/Dan Haren. And so far they haven't ranking 7 in ERA, 3 in RA along with Haren dragging down Weaver into a mere 7-6 record. Additionally the staff loses on defense where Trout is a downgrade from the leather-necked Bourjos and to get Pujols/Morales/Trumbo all in the lineup one of the latter two has to don a glove and that's a Catch-22...as in if you hit 100 flyballs/groundballs in their direction they'd probably catch 22.

    Toss in the fact that their current closer is the less than athletic 36 year old Scott Downs, a player who has one AB in the last 8 years and that resulted in a 3 month DL stint, and it's easy to see possible holes cropping up in the pen as well. Frankly all this seems to add up to about what they did last year which left them 4 games behind Boston for the then mythical 5th playoff spot. They're not going to catch Texas, but with the Yankees and Red Sox coming back to the pack and the Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians and White Sox improving everyone should be knocking each other off leaving a wild scramble for the two AL WC spots. Being somewhere among those scramblers is probably the best Anaheim can hope for in 2012.

Wear as little clothes as you like I'm still siding with the Rangers in this matchup.

If you're so inclined become a Follower at the icon on the top right. Additionally check back more often as we are going to drop the long-winded dissertations and just throw out the low-brow humor and off-center analysis whenever if passes through our cerebral transom meaning more, but shorter posts. And no we won't skimp on the pictures. Thanks for playing...

Fun: It's Not All It's Cracked Up To Be (More MLB Notes)

--First a quick goodbye to legendary poker player Thomas "Amarillo Slim" Preston who passed away April 29 at the age of 83. Slim was a 4-time World Series of Poker bracelet winner, the last coming in 1990. In the 1950's he was part of the famed "Rounders", along with Doyle Brunson and Sailor Roberts, who traveled the country looking for cash games. Roberts passed  in 1995 leaving only Brunson still kicking and last seen hobbling from table to table in Las Vegas on his trademark one crutch, a style that last looked good if you were coming home from the Battle of Antietam. In the final decade of his life Amarillo Slim pleaded No Contest to a charge of indecency in front of a 12 year-old child, was robbed 3 times at gunpoint and, perhaps worst, had the movie rights to his autobiography picked up by...Nicolas Cage. Indeed this may be the very definition of a "timely passing". RIP Mr. Preston and if you get the chance check out Slim, Pug Pearson and other cash-game greats in director Robert Altman's gambling cult classic film California Split.

--Next congrats to aged Rockies starter Jamie Moyer for becoming the oldest pitcher in MLB history to record a win besting Jack Quinn of the 1932 Brooklyn Dodgers by 70 days though Satchel Paige and several Dominicans with birth certificates that could make Danny Almonte's father wince may take exception to this claim. Moyer even got a mention on the Today Show though we're not sure if it was in reference to his historic performance or if Willard Scott was wishing him a Happy Birthday?

    Of course it all raises the question of why this Ancient ex-Mariner is even pitching in the majors and more specifically why in Colorado? Despite an ERA of Pi (3.14) Moyer has been cake for hitters who are banging out a .308 BA against him resulting in only one team win in his 5 starts. And worse is likely to come. Prior to his 2011 Elba-esque exile Moyer's downfall had been the longball, allowing 47 in a little more than 270 IPs in 2009-10. Sending him to the hill in the thin-aired environs of Coors Field is akin to putting a fork in the microwave or my cream cheese white ass in a tanning booth...there's bound to be sparks and a lot of pain. The larger issue Moyer's usage raises is what direction are the Rockies heading? Sure with a weak division and an extra Wild Card team this year there's hope for October baseball, but just because graybeards Moyer, Marco Scutaro, Todd Helton, Ramon Hernandez and Rafael Betancourt somehow get you there doesn't mean you'll be going far down that road. As a middlin' payroll team (18th) would Colorado be better served in the long run with Ubaldo Jimenez trade chip Alex White in the rotation in place of Moyer, 24 year-old fireballer Rex Brothers closing over Betancourt and 20 somethings like Tyler Colvin, Jonathan Herrera and Chris Nelson seeing full-time ABs over Scutaro, Helton and Jason Giambi? Time will tell, but if the Rox miss out on what could be some easy Division Championships and Wild Card pickins' while at the same time getting passed over by the full blown rebuilding mode Padres in coming years the roots of the problem could lie in the short-sightedness of moves like signing Moyer.

In other AARP-esque news 62 year-old Morgan Fairchild has just replaced Florence Henderson as the oldest woman I'd "sleep with/get shot down by". Presently messages to her website remain unanswered.

--Just because something seems to be the natural progression doesn't necessarily mean it's a good idea. For example ketchup/mustard in a squeeze bottle: Good Idea...Relish, with its much higher water content: Not So Much. In fact, if I wanted my tongue to become that intimate with soggy buns I'd "roofie" Dana Torres. And all this brings us to our defense of Yankee relief pitcher David Robertson who has been taking heat on the NY talk radio circuit for saying Rafael Soriano should leapfrog him for the vacant closer's role because he's not sure he feels comfortable in that spot.

    Now we agree that Robertson should keep that kinda talk between himself and his manager since no matter the choice it opens Joe Girardi up to second-guessing on those ocassional Blown Save nights, but that doesn't mean addressing this situation open and honestly isn't important.

    Many years ago the deeply observant writer and ESPN analyst Peter Gammons pointed out that having the mental makeup to be a closer is almost as important as having the "stuff". By way of example he pointed to Indian/Astro/Brewer Doug Jones who despite not playing a full MLB season till after his 30th birthday and possessing a fastball that couldn't intimidate porcelain still recorded five 30+ save seasons including 36 at the age of 40. Jones' success, Gammons pointed out, was bred of a fearlessness that enabled him to throw any pitch, in any count, anywhere in the strike zone and let the proverbial chips fall where they may. Conversely Gammons noted that current MLB Network analyst Dan Plesac was equipped with upper 90s heat, a nasty slider and all the testicular fortitude of a court servant in the Qing Dynasty. In spite of the former he burned out as a closer by 27 when the latter caught up to him as evidenced by a walk rate that nearly doubled overnight and a K rate that collapsed with both only returning to normalcy when he was moved into a more Low Leverage role.

    Even in this increasingly Sabermetric era even hardcore stat geeks admit it's hard to get a handle on reliever projections because of their yearly small sample sizes. To this end, and much to the chagrin of early birds on Fantasy Waiver Wires, 32 year-old Santiago Casilla was bumped to closer by Bruce Bochy after Brian Wilson's demise in San Francisco despite the fact that 3 years younger setup man Sergio Romo and his back-to-back years of sub-2.20 ERAs seemed the heir apparent. To date Casilla is 5-for-5 on save chances and Romo has yet to give up a run in his standard 8th inning role. So maybe there's still room left in this emotion-less, binomial world for managerial intuition and maybe Yankee fans shouldn't be so hard on David Robertson, he just may be doing them and Joe Girardi a favor.


Robertson & Soriano, Romo & Casilla...Closers are like breasts, it's always nice to have a good pair to fall back (or forward) on...

--And in other bad news for the Yankees Freddy Garcia was demoted from the rotation on 4/28 after two of the worst beatdowns this side of the Rodney King Video at which mention I would like to point out that if I'm ever getting bludgeoned by the police, as Bob Goldthwait once said, by all means put down the video camera and HELP ME! Between the Pineda/Montero trade and the decision to keep Garcia over Bartolo Colon (3-2, 2.83 ERA, 28/6 K/BB with Oakland) it would seem to be a bad offseason of mound decisions for GM Brian Cashman. Fortunately being the Yankees GM is like being that girl pictured above dating me in that you never have to admit you're wrong. Before guys like Garcia start conjuring up images of Kei Igawa and his Dr. Spock sideburns in your fanbase's memory you simply change the equation by bringing back Andy Pettitte which should happen any day now. Then there's the trade deadline where a rejuvenated Eric Bedard (Pit.), a steady Wandy Rodriguez (Hou.) or a Rent-a-Arm Roy Oswalt could fall into your lap. That notwithstanding age, injuries and declining production may be catching up to not only the Red Sox but the Yankees as well, meaning the balance of power which has already listed to the Tampa/Texas/Detroit side could go overboard harder than Natalie Wood in the near future. So how does a small market team make hay...

--...in a word pitching...no make that PITCHING! More specifically Starting Pitching, but you get the point. You see it seems that if you grab enough young, stud hitters a few will shake out with MLB talent and other veterans and platoon-types can be found to fill in around them. Things are not the same when it comes to harvesting Starters. First off the Starting Pitcher like a QB in the NFL has the ball and control of the game in his hands half the time, and if it's not always easy for an NFL GM to find a competent QB imagine the Sisyphusean task of his small market baseball counterpart in trying to find 4 or 5. Thus it seems the idea of simply stockpiling young arms at the expense of all else is not such a far-fetched idea.

    Take for example the biggest small market success stories of the 21st Century-the "Moneyball Oakland Athletics and the current Tampa Bay Rays. In their combined 8 playoff appearances since 2000 these teams have averaged a finish of a pedestrian 6.6 out of 14 AL teams in hitting while finishing 2.4 out of 14 in pitching. Breaking it down further neither team ever finished worse than 3rd in Runs Allowed in any playoff year, but on 5 of 8 occasions ended up 8th or worse in terms of Runs Scored. Obviously Park Factors, Defensive Efficiency and other ancillary metrics play into this, but without Geek-ing things up too much it's clear having cheap control over the likes of Hudson/Mulder/Zito and Shields/Garza/Price goes a long way to explaining how these clubs defied the odds. Heck, just seeing the Rays atop every major sports site's Power Rankings while trotting out a lineup filled with the likes of Jose Molina, Elliott Johnson, Jeff Keppinger, Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac is almost enough to make our case.

Let's call this girl a quick Sorbet to cleanse your pallette for our final point...

    And that point is that teams who defy this logic seem to be treading in the same pee-warmed shallow end of the Playoff Chase pool year after year. Case in point is this year's Kansas City Royals who several fans took issue (alright one guy) when we lumped them in with the fruitless likes of the Pittsburgh Pirates in last week's article. His claim was the same as the argument put forth for K.C.'s resurgence by writers in the preaseason that being-this team's got young talent, see: Hosmer, Gordon, Moustakas, Soria, Crow. No arguments about the abilities of the aforementioned other than that none of them take the hill every fifth day. Instead the Royals are still struggling because of this:

1. Bruce Chen: His whole recent career could be summed in one inning last year in Chicago where he threw what seemed like 106 pitches to walk the bases loaded around two outs. He then faced White Sox 3B Brent Morel better known as the Will Rogers of Plate Discipline in that he never met a pitch he didn't like. After 12 pitches that showed a distinct aversion to the strike zone Morel popped up to the catcher prompting the ever-analytical Hawk Harrelson to comment, "Tough break Brent-y, get him next time"...yes, wonderful. This year Chen has taken it to another level by frequently refusing to even throw the ball toward home plate attempting 10 pickoff throws in one AB during a recent game vs. the Twins. This slop has worked to the tune of a 24-15 record over the last 2 seasons, but breaking it down we find him 1-4 with a 7+ ERA vs. Boston/New York/Texas so it can only take you so far. And at 35 years-old that's your Ace...

2. Luke Hochevar: This guy is obviously not coming to the park in a little yellow school bus because there's nothing special at all about him. OK, he was a #1 overall draft pick in 2006 and he hasn't allowed a HR in 25.2 IP this year, but his ERA in 2012 is 7.36 and it's never been below 4.68 in his previous 4 full seasons as a pro. He'd be a decent piece at the back end of a rotation, but that's why drafting young pitchers is like bringing Wet Wipes to Andy Dick's house...you can never have enough.

3. Danny Duffy: Duffy made only 15 starts above A-ball before being thrust into the rotation last year at 22. His age and relative success make him the true Ace of this staff. But while a club like the Yankees is nursing along pitching prospects such as D.J. Martinez, David Phelps and Adam Warren in the minors until their age 25 season and beyond Duffy is burning up innings on the highest level in a lost cause. It may not be a bad thing, but it does show the difficulty and precariousness that teams like this deal with every year.

4. Everett Teaford: It's a testament to how far schools have come in their Anti-Bullying campaigns over the years that a kid with a name like this could be found excelling on the athletic fields instead of hiding behind a Contra-Bassoon in the Band Room. Beyond that he's a 28 YO who relies on guile, has a K rate in the low 5's and reminds Royal fans of the name Mark Teahen...none of which is good.

5. Jonathan Sanchez: Mr. Sanchez is only casually acquainted with the strike zone and as such was shipped out of San Francisco for what I believe amounted to an autographed picture of Jamie Quirk and a side of ribs from Jack Stack's. He set out this year to find the strike zone, but as his 19 BB in 22 IP suggest it keeps ditching him. Well at least it wasn't a Pete LaCock autograph...

6. Luis Mendoza: Finally a "Mendoza Line" for pitchers. Luis has conveinently established it at his current ERA of 6.00 and as soon as John Lackey finishes rehabbing his elbow he can get back to trying to crack that barrier.

And thus it looks like it's still gonna be awhile before the ghosts of Larry Gura, Paul Splittorff, Dennis Leonard, Charlie Leibrandt, Bret Saberhagen and Mark Gubicza are resurrected in the Heartland.

You know what forget BBQ, suddenly I want Italian food...

Finished in every sense of the word...

Why I'm Not Speaking To Richard Dawson & More Tales From The Drunk Side

--First let's start out by paying our respects after a tough week in the music biz that saw the passing of Dick Clark, Levon Helm and Greg Ham, better known as the flautist for Men At Work...and that's the last time I expect to type the word "flautist" here until Ian Anderson passes which probably won't be for a long time as while he may be "too old to Rock-n-Roll, he's much too young to die."...And yes that's about the level of the humor here so you may wanna get out now.

The Band. RIP Richard Manuel, Levon Helm and Rick Danko.

--Meanwhile in Hollywood word is former Will & Grace star Debra Messing will be appearing topless in Allure Magazine...which reminds me my 12 year-old nephew is having a pool party next weekend. Actually it's not fair to call Messing flat-chested...she's really more concave. So even as a big fan of the topless genre, like a Debra Messing-shaped rock this pictorial is gonna be easy to skip.

Where "motorboats" go to die...Is there an antonym for cleavage?

--In other news from California Former Met/Phillie/Stock Guru Lenny Dykstra was sentenced to 9 months incarceration in a place where they have a very different definition of the term "backdoor slider" for taking liberties with various maids in his employ. Nails pleaded No Contest and threw himself at the mercy of the judge like he was George Costanza being fired from Pendant Publishing..."I gotta claim ignorance on this one. If I had known this type of thing was frowned upon..." For more on this ever-growing pile of human refuse see our article "The Dumbest Guy In The Room" @ http://bowltilithurts.blogspot.com/2011/05/dumbest-guy-in-room.html

Someone sent this via E-mail and that's why I love you mugs...you're the only ones that "get" me...

--And while we're talking about guys having bad weeks here's Detroit starter Rick Porcello's line from Saturday: 10 H, 9 R, 8 ER...in 1 IP! I haven't seen anyone devastated by runs that quickly this side of Taco Bell or a cholera epidemic. His ERA went from 1.86 to 6.34 with this one outing in what has to be the biggest slaughter while "taking the hill" since Pickett's Charge. Better, or any, luck next time, guy.

--Almost forgot to post this pic of Tampa Bay RF Luke Scott who appears to be channeling his inner-Wolverine this season Usually one doesn't see mutton chops like this outside a Renaissance Faire or since Russians were trying to get around Peter The Great's Beard Tax circa 1700. Don't know if it helps his hitting, but I do know he's got a lotta cleaning up to do if he wants to be "sponge-worthy"...as this guy can attest.

--A coupla weeks back we promised Mets, so here it is...

--There's an apocryphal story about a middle age guy complaining about having to get up at night to pee only to have an 80 year-old overhear and respond, "hey, at least you get up..." That's kinda the difference between being the Mets versus say the Royals or Pirates. You see the Royals and Pirates, despite the hype for the former and the remarkable 2011 first half of the latter, have no hope or at least very little by dint of their payroll. For them to win on a consistent basis they not only have to develop virtually all their top talent, but do so on a time coordinated basis so that arbitration and free-agent eligibility doesn't impact their ability to sign veteran parts to fill out their roster or result in some young talent leaving before other has the chance to develop. Sure the Rays are doing it now and Oakland had their "Moneyball" run, but these are the exceptions and as the A's present struggles indicate can be short-lived.

    The Mets, on the other hand, have money, even post-Madoff, and last year checked in with the 5th highest payroll in baseball at over $142M spent. As we mentioned in our NL East Preview they also have a fairly shrewd GM in Sandy Alderson now after a run of shaky management under Omar Minaya and everyone's favorite silver-haired chubby chaser Steve Phillips. Rather than try to plug the holes in this long sinking ship Alderson decided to let it capsize and build from scratch. To this end he jettisoned $59M in salary at the end of 2011 by either trading or not re-signing the Spanish Armada of Under-achievement known as Carlos Beltran, Ollie Perez, K-Rod, Hamstring Jose Reyes and Luis Castillo. At the end of 2013 another $41M goes away courtesy of Johan Santana and Jason Bay and thus the target date to contend again is 2014. But with whom is the question...

    So who might still be Amazin' if/when the tide turns in Flushing? Let's break this down on a mediocrity by mediocrity basis:

C  Josh Thole: The baseball version of Pink Slime. JT is roster filler with no pop, no glove and who never saw a Lefty he couldn't dribble out weakly to second off. Still catcher is a need position throughout the MLB and Thole could hang around as a backup due to his ability to exceed replacement level vs. RHP. Hell if guys like Paul Bako and Brian Schneider can carve out careers why not Thole. Verdict...Gone/Backup.

1B Ike Davis: Most projection systems out there had this 25 year-old pegged for a breakout year until he contracted an offseason case of Valley Fever which is, I believe, a blood disease that causes you to have the hots for Wayne Gretzky's wife. He missed time in the Spring and started off slow, but his bat has picked up of late. He'll be coming into his prime 27 year-old season in 2014 when the Mets hope to contend and his legit power for the position will allow them to allocate big bucks elsewhere...Keeper.

2B Daniel Murphy: Think Super Joe McEwing, but with a bat. Not exactly a Leatherneck at any position, but he can cover all 4 corners plus second and not completely undermine your plans. He could start for a bottom feeder or be a Uber-Utility type for a contender. Since he wouldn't bring much back in a trade the call is probably his...Backup/Gone.

SS Ruben Tejada: This guy has Padres written all over him...or Mariners. Anyplace where the park would suppress most shortstops power anyway thereby making his complete lack of same inconsequential. Doesn't field, run or draw walks to such a degree that you have to take notice. Mets fans should hope he gets hot for a stretch so they can ship him elsewhere for a usable relief piece...Gone.

3B David Wright: In recent years Wright's numbers have been up and down more than those guys in the Flomax commercial. He rebounded from a 10 HR 2009 with 29 dingers and .850+ OPS in 2010, but any hope for a career take-off fell by the wayside as he battled a long-term injury that limited him to 447 PAs in 2011. Off to a solid start this year the question is whether he's a cornerstone or trade chip? Oddly the better Wright plays the more likely he is to be gone. With an extra playoff team and some wide-open races any number of teams from the Dodgers to the Rockies to the Blue Jays to the Angels could come offering prospects and the better Wright's numbers the more MLB-ready those players will be. That means Wright would have to get through two July 31sts and offseasons to be part of the expected turnaround. As the Metskis only real blue-chip bait we don't see that happenin'...Gone.

Recent rumors of a David Wright/Erin Andrews (ESPN) sex tape proved to be a hoax. I was gonna put a pic of Erin Andrews here, but she's always wearing so many clothes. This girl is also named Erin Andrews and doesn't appear to have the same problem. Enjoy!

LF Jason Bay: No one's gone off a cliff like this since the closing scene of Thelma & Louise. If you don't think Park Factor matters check out this guy's numbers from his last year in Fenway compared to his first two at Citi Field. He went from a .921 OPS in 2009 to .703 last year and it hasn't even been that pretty as his fielding has gone in the tank as well. Oh and did we mention he's off to .240 BA start, on pace to strike out 170 times (500 ABs), is currently on the DL and turns 34 before the season's out...GONE!

CF Angel Torres/Kirk Nieuwenheis: This is a position where the Mets might really throw some money around in the coming offseasons. Torres is injured and already 34...Gone. This has allowed Nieuwenheis to goose step into Center, but his speed and defense indicate he's headed for a corner. His 2010 breakout at Double A was followed by similiar, albeit injury truncated, success at Triple A last year so getting him some major league exposure at 24 is a good thing. He's currently sporting a .928 OPS in a Lilliputian sample size, but at least he hasn't been overwhelmed...Keeper.

RF Lucas Duda: He's stiffer than Mitt Romney at Coachella in the field and if he raced Jessica Simpson right now he'd finish third, still the guy can flat-out hit. If this were the AL there'd be no problem. Fortunately he hits from the platoon heavy left side and shows terrific power numbers versus RHP so while he may not be a starter for an improved Mets team he could carve out a place as a solid 1B/LF/RF swing guy...Keeper.

SP Johan Santana: Currently Santana is unmoveable because of his contract and questions surrounding his health. Early results have been mixed as he pitched well in two 5 inning starts against the Chipper-less Braves and (so far) lumber challenged Nats. Then his last outing he couldn't make it out of the second as the Chipper-filled Braves "nocohoma-ed" him for 6 runs in one and one third. He's coming off major shoulder surgery and well on the unfriendly side of 30 and though he won the pitching Triple Crown (K, Wins, ERA) in 2006 the Mets can't wait to get him off their payroll...and maybe get Phil Humber back as well...Gone.

SP Mike Pelfrey: For a stone-cold sinkerballer this guy gets taken deep more often than Jodie Foster in The Accused. Problem is he never developed another quality offering meaning he gets few strikeouts and hitters are content to wait out his mistakes. He's still only 28 and that may explain why the Mets didn't move him after his 15 win 2010. Their reward was a 7-13, 4.74 ERA 2011. Like cat genitalia the upside here is hard to find...Gone.

SP Jonathan Niese: The current incarnation of the Amazin's features less stars than the night sky over Mexico City and Niese is almost certain to never escape from the smog. That, however, doesn't make him worthless. Joe Theismann once said of a 6th round pick on ESPN's Draft Day Special, "hey, you need bodies to fill out mini-camps and things" and while Niese is far more functional than that he's probably no more than a back-end starter/swingman on a true contender. That's still important, but not important enough that he couldn't be packaged in a blockbuster deal without batting an eye. We'll call him a...Keeper?

SP Dillon Gee: Whiz, he's...Gone.

SP R.A. Dickey: If the Mets do rise from the ashes to contention Dickey and his fluttering balls could be their version of Tim Wakefield circa 2004-07. For a knuckleballer he's remarably consistent, eating innings and keeping the ball in the park at a reasonable rate. Hey, worse things could happen...like Victor Zambrano or Mister Koo...Keeper.

Closer/Pen Almost All Gone Bullpens are constantly changing these days so Alderson will probably try to mix and match with homegrown talent like Jennry Mejia and Robert Carson interspersed with free agents and waiver claims...oh and Miguel Batista probably won't be around either.



Honestly I have no idea what's going on here, but God bless..

We're done. Next time we'll have a look at early under-achievers Boston and Anaheim, as well as, some stuff about Stephen Strasburg and maybe the Brian Wilson crap we didn't have space for this time around. Until then we'll be drinkin' to keep from cryin'...

Notes From The Karl Farbman Of Despair (MLB Stuff)

Back from the Mall which begged the question, "Why do I bother leaving the house at all?" And up with a quick notes column and some brief thoughts on the early MLB season and other nonsense:

Another reason not to leave the house...sadly not mine, but another reason just the same...

--First up it has been brought to our attention that the Lingerie Football League has suspended operations for the 2012 season (see here http://blog.chron.com/sportsupdate/2012/04/u-s-lingerie-football-league-to-forgo-2012-season/#4426-11 ) which doesn't really bother me since I only watch it for the articles anyway. According to a league spokesman there will be exhibitions available this year on a PPV basis, but why would I pay to see bodacious bimbos bouncing about in barely any clothes when I already get Univision for free...

The Chicago Bliss, we hardly knew ye...guess it's back to my other "Fantasy" Football teams now.

--And now Ryan Braun. As we all know the Hebrew Hammer, the Semitic Slammer, the Gaza Rip, the Jewish Jacker, the Zionist Zephyr...alright I'm done now...avoided his 50-game Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) suspension on a technicality related to the handling of his offending sample. Realizing that this looked to the unwashed masses like another case of Loot over Legitimacy Braun then hinted that, if truth be told, there was a far more valid reason for him getting off and being deemed clean, but then he, not suprisingly, refused to tell that, supposed, truth and clear his name.

    At this point I think this has become an all too familiar refrain. Just like we all know that the 6' 2", 115 lbs. psuedo-skeleton with brown teeth and burn marks on his fingers buying 27 boxes of Sudafed at Walgreen's doesn't have the sniffles-well, maybe he does but that's not an anti-biotic issue-we know MLBers are doing anything and everything to get an edge, lame defenses notwithstanding.

    So now everyone outside of Cheese Country will be watching Braun's HR total viewing any drop as an indicator of his cheating and subsequent lying ways, but this is the narrow view. The record smashing of a muscled Mark McGwire and bloated Barry Bonds has led everyone to equate PEDs with power and strength. Certainly, as proven by bodybuilders and Pro Wrestlers, longterm cycling will lead to bulked up muscle mass, but that may not be the benefit that most Diamond druggists are getting. In the real world steroids and their like are used to stimulate healing and recovery, a not unimportant consideration for players over a grueling 162 game schedule. Or in real world terms think of David Ortiz's (whose paunchy, flabby physique reminds us of the old Dusty Rhodes proclamation, "there ain't a steee-roid runnin' through this body"...no shit) power outage of a few years back while playing through a wrist injury as the type of thing that can happen, unreported often, to ballplayers throughout a given year.

    As for Braun he's put up well in excess of 600 plate appearances in the last 3 years with remarkably steady production across the board. Of course this could just be a function of his being in his 25-27 year-old prime. In 2009, however, we had Braun on our Fantasy team and watched his season closely. From virtually spring training on reports were that Rockin' Ryan was suffering from side/rib concerns and a mere trunk twist away from the DL yet he never missed more than a game here and there, put up over 700 PAs and delivered spectacular numbers that allowed even this eternally pessimistic owner to pull "a Sutter" (the feet up, arms crossed pose that Whitey Herzog affected whenever shut down closer Bruce Sutter entered a game for the 80's Cardinals) while waltzing to a title.

    So if you're like us and get your pathetic, lazy-ass jollies from seeing the "Doers and Thinkers", as Waylon Jennings once put it, of the world get their occasional comeuppance keep an eye on Ryan Braun's health this season it just might tell us more than all the urine in Milwaukee.

Steroids...they're not always a bad thing (Note: this is the sadly deceased Marianna Komlos who portrayed "Mrs. Cleavage" as part of a Leave It To Beaver gimick in one of the strangest WWE storylines ever- http://prowrestling.wikia.com/wiki/Marianna )

--In a similiar note on the Professional Eating Circuit is Marijuana considered a Performance Enhancing Drug?

--I'm not really a "car guy" and I don't feel the "need for speed". In fact the only speeding ticket I ever received was in a college parking deck for doing 9 in a 5 MPH zone which I tried to get out of by explaing to the Rent-A-Cop that "there's no way I was doing 9, my car shimmies at 8...I'd have known if I was doing 9". And this is how we awkwardly stumble into the annual debate regarding Tim Lincecum's velocity.

    It seems like every year this issue comes up and every year it's forgotten in short order as T-Lin begins posting his usual numbers as the weather heats up or after a few poor mid-season outings regardless of what the speed gun is reading. At this point, however, let us state that velocity is important. For every Jamie Moyer that wins with guile there are 20 Aaron Laffey's whose fleeting success is forgotten amidst a cacophany of unconditional releases and occasional LOOGY-dom (Lefty One Out Guy). Even the successful survivors like Ted Lilly, Randy Wolf and the current incarnation of Freddy Garcia struggle to top the 12-14 win and .500 record mark. You see like dating, say J-Lo, battling through MLB lineups on your wits and craftiness alone is difficult what with outthinking the hitter, carrying around her "purse dog", living on the corners, helping with hair extensions, getting a favorable umpire, hearing about how Steven Tyler smells, counting on your defense...er...perhaps I've mixed up my metaphors here, but you get the point, it's Hard Work.

    So does that mean that the drop from a 92.8 MPH average fastball last year to a 90.5 reading in his two disastrous starts (well one disastrous, the other just so-so) this year is meaningful? Yes...and no. First despite his goofy demeanor Lincecum knows his craft. He's survived similiar drops by developing and working his changeup and slider to keep hitters off balance with a different look and pattern. More importantly TL seems to know his body. At 160 pounds he's more susceptible to the rigors of 30-35 starts than say your C.C. Sabathia's and Felix Hernandez's. He's had consecutive seasons of 33 starts and 200+ innings so there is a good chance Lincecum is just gearing himself up slowly for what would appear to be the long playoff run ahead. One indication of this is that according to pitch stats he's thrown only a handful of sliders, a pitch he's used to great effect in recent years, in his first two starts resorting to mostly fastballs and changeups. So if you're the kinda person who likes to make the occasional sports "investment", shall we say, Google PITCH F/X stats and keep an eye on the breakdown of pitches in Lincecum starts. Even if the velocity doesn't come back a willingness to mix in more sliders may be the key that the Giants ace is ready to make his move...I mean, no inducement to gamble, but we're just sayin'...

Smart girls know it's not all about speed...

--And speaking of gambling how 'bout going against the Twins vs. Left-Handed pitching. Now saying the Twins stink this year is not exactly news, but a quick perusal of their lineup shows it to be spectacularly unbalanced to as Rocky Balboa would say the "South Philly, South Jersey, south paw" side. In two games this year vs. C.J. Wilson and Matt Harrison the Twins lineup got beat up by Lefties worse than Phil Mickelson's teenage penis recording only 10 hits, 2 runs and a 0.72 ERA against in those efforts. Being anchored by Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer no doubt makes facing Lefties a problem, but it's excerbated by the non-platoon of port siders Chris Parmelee and Sean Burroughs at first, a lefty leadoff man in Denard Span, the acquisition of Devil-handed (at least hitting-wise) Clete Thomas to cover RF and the fact that switch-hitters Ryan Doumit and Alexi Casilla both show considerably a higher OPS vs. RHP. Heck if lefty masher Josh Willingham goes down to injury you may wanna grab the baby's college fund and head to Vegas...but then as our College Football Selections will attest we've been wrong before. Still after being owned by Wilson/Harrison, but beating up on top line righties Jered Weaver and Dan Haren this may be a trend to keep an eye on.

I'd like to lose at Old Maid to this girl...

That's enough for today...next week we'll have a Mets overview (hopefully before the inevitable crash) and the fallout from the decision of S.F. closer Brian Wilson to join the latest ZZ Top tour or whatever the Hell is gonna keep him out the rest of the year. Drink up, be nauseous!

Will Good Time Charlie (Manuel) Get The Blues? (NL East Preview)

    If a guy like me is ever gonna hook up with a woman again, let's face facts, I gotta try...hard. Dinners, movies, conversation and even, good God, caring are a prerequisite if I'm gonna get a female to stand even 5 minutes in my presence. The problem is I just can't muster the strength to give a crap anymore. Not about your cat, your friends, your job or anything to do with vampires and/or zombies. Thus I'm always looking for pickup lines as a form of weaseling my way in without all the heavy lifting. In the past I've borrowed from Kevin James' King of Queens character, "I don't know if you ladies watch Professional Roller Derby, but I'm Doug Heffernan" and comedian Doug Benson, "My penis just died can I bury it in your ass" with, as you might expect, widely varying degrees of success.

    This year I've decided to go with the line Arnold Poindexter used in Revenge of the Nerds on an Omega Moo sorority sister, "So would you rather live in the ascendancy of a civilization or it's decline?"; or as I'm paraphrasing, "So who do you like in the NL East?"

    The teams on the ascendancy here are the Braves and their young arms (Hanson, Beachy, Kimbrel, Venters) and the Nationals with the dynamic duo of Stephen Strasbourg and Bryce Harper creating perhaps overly lofty expectations. The team in decline would have to be the Phillies due to an aging and increasingly brittle infield. Though bringing the talents of Halladay, Lee and Hamels to the hill 3 out of every 5 days hardly makes this the Last Days of Rome. Meanwhile the Marlins play the part of the suddenly resource rich former third world country. A wild card that has to be taken seriously due to the money they've brought to the table. And as for the Mets in this analogy, well, one conjures up images of those African tribes that are discovered living untouched by civilization for thousands of years. Best just to pull closed the curtain and leave them blissfully unaware of just how bad they've got it.

    So here now is our NL East predictions with overlooked, but potentially key players noted in bold. Thanks for participating...

NL East (in order of finish)
Philadelphia Phillies-When a multi-millionaire, rock star, horn-dog like Mick Jagger tells me "I Can't Get No Satisfaction" it's a little hard to believe. Like Huey Lewis singing "I Wanna New Drug" (shut up and get back in your minivan Yuppie scum) or Gloria Gaynor saying "I Will Survive" (yeah, whatever happened to her?). But one look at Sir Mick's creased and craggy visage of late does at least lend some authenticity to the singing of "Mother's Little Helper"...Indeed it is a drag getting old.



    We were very tempted to put the Braves here, but the aforementioned starters coupled with a strong, shored up bullpen headed by Jonathan Papelbon and nasty Antonio "You Magnificent" Bastardo is enough to give them the nod. Still despite all the mound magnificence there seems to be some trepidation surrounding this team because of an aging and increasingly brittle everyday core.

    The entire right side of the infield will be on the DL to start the season. Ryan Howard being out until June and Chase Utley dealing with another nagging injury the likes of which have sent his once consistent numbers into a spiral the last two years. Throw in 36 year old Placido Polanco another player plagued by declining production and DL time and you have a growing problem in Philly which is only compounded by a pair of backup infielders in Michael Martinez and Freddy Galvis whose work in the batter box often evokes cries of "nice job, does your husband play?" from the Broad Street Phaithful. Mix in probable regression from 2011 surprise stars Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz and it seems possible even this killer staff could be wasted by a few bad breaks...or sprains...or hyperextensions.

    So for our key player we're going to create a three-headed monster of Laynce Nix/Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Jr.. Ty Wiggington can suffice at 1B in the short term, Polanco is currently healthy and Victorino and Ruiz are expected to regress slightly not nosedive per most projections. That means the one big question mark, assuming Utley is not out longer than expected, is in LF where Mayberry will platoon with Nix/Brown. As the short side of the platoon Mayberry, who tweaked his stance last year and finally delivered on some of the power potential his lineage hints at, should be fine. Thus either Brown or Nix needs to step up in what is expected to be a very competitive division. Nix provides veteran pop, but also brings an abysmal .288 OBP to bear so the Phillies are hoping the 24 year old Brown starts to live up to his can't-miss prospect projection. Last year D-Bro turned around a poor K/BB ration first in Triple-A and then in 210 ABs at the major level. If Mayberry maintains most of the gains he made last year and Brown begins to flower it could be Party-Time at Pat's Cheesesteaks come October...then again it could...aw Hell we won't even say it.

Yes, it should be a tight one in the NL East race this year.

Atlanta Braves- An edition of the soon to be obsolete print edition of The Encyclopedia Britannica mentions that after retiring from politics ex-President John Adams liked to spend his days "admiring his prodigious manure pile which grew incrementally by the day." Many Atlanta fans have compared the 2011 Braves season to a pile of manure, but not because they admired it or it grew incrementally.

    In fact the Braves season more resembled the "Drunkards Walk Theory" which states that things like the stock market or a baseball season do not move in a straight line, but rather lurch forward and pitch backward like a drunk trying to make it home down a city sidewalk. The idea being I...er I mean...the drunk will eventually reach his destination, but in an irregular path of progress and decline. For the inebriated Bravos it was a positive looking 3 steps forward, 1 step backward until with 30 games left and a 9.5 game lead in the Wild Card the final round of Jello shots apparently kicked in and they didn't just stumble backwards, but off the curb and into a speeding bus eventually losing in the 13th inning of the last game of the season to send eventual World Series winner St. Louis to the playoffs and themselves to the golf course.

    The problen, of course, was the bats. ATL finished 23rd overall in runs scored and broken down sabermetrically they wound up an even worse 26th in True Average (TAv). Combine that with a middling defense and a young and talented, but overworked bullpen and you can see how a few bad bounces could skew short term results and lead to such a collapse. In short, the Braves had little  margin for error due to their offensive ineptitude and paid an unlucky price.

    This year it could be more of the same as the Braves thanks to the range challenged and Roberto Duran Hands-of-Stone duo of Freddie Freeman and Dan Uggla appear to be the worst defensive club in the division. Combine that with the fragility of the already DL-ed Chipper Jones, who's still arguably their most productive bat when healthy, and it could be another tight-rope walk to reach the playoffs.

    That said the guy who has to deliver is Jason Heyward. He may not be under the radar, but his precipitous decline from 3.9 WARP to 0.5 last year was more than enough to cost Atlanta the Wild Card. Good news is it was partially manifested by a decidedly low .260 BABIP. With even average luck on balls in play Heyward should add 1.5 to 2 wins to his total from last year. Now the question is will it be enough to not only catch the Phils, but hold off the hard charging Nats and Marlins.

The Braves used to play in Boston...right?

Miami Marlins-I can still remember my Mom sitting at the dinner table and proclaming that "beauty is skin deep, but ugly goes right to the bone"...then she turned away and started talking to my sister. In short you can slap a coat of concealer and a pushup bra on any Hollywood starlet and look good in the short term, but time will eventually seperate the timeless Christie Brinkley's and Jane Seymour's from the in seclusion for a reason Melanie Griffith's of the world (if only Antonio Banderas had such foresight). And that brings us to the new and supposedly improved Marlins.

    The key additions in Miami this year are Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle who combined with new manager Ozzie Guillen and the excitement over the grand opening of a state-of-the-art ballpark have led to expectations perhaps getting out of hand. After all this is essentially still a team that lost 92 games last year, hasn't made the playoffs since 2003 and plays in far and away the toughest division in the National League. Breaking the hype down further Reyes is arguably the biggest non-pitcher injury risk in all of baseball with a hammy that's been glazed so often you may as well toss a pineapple ring on top of it at this point and at 34 with a declining K rate, a ready to regress .269 BABIP and a move out of every pitcher's favorite park in S.D. is Heath Bell really that much of an upgrade over The Closer Formerly Known As Leo Nunez?

    Still there's plenty here to suggest that Miami will close the gap on the Braves and Phillies considerably and even vie for a WC spot. While not spectacular Mark Buerhle is as consistent as they come and could even see a bump in his numbers this year with a new league full of hitters who have yet to be baffled by his off-speed stuff, Hanley Ramirez is due for a rebound of sorts after providing no value in 2011 and the starting 4 at least is set and solid with Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson.

    Thus the key is the core that contributed to those 92 losses playing better. Giancarlo nee Mike Stanton is a monster, but may have trouble living up to his breakout 2011 so we'll call our key player LF Logan Morrison who needs to build off his 23 homer, .798 OPS season to compensate for any decline by Stanton and cover the Emilio Bonifacio/Chris Coghlan/Scott Cousins mess that will handle CF. Projections are that Morrison overshot his power last year, but the new park is expected to be left-handed power friendly and at 24 he's still young enough to build on prior success. In the end, though, we're not buying the hype coming outta South Beach and think the Marlins, while still worth a roll in the hay, are not the full season beauty some are making them out to be.

Washington Nationals-And speaking of hype...it is almost always a bad thing to get caught up in especially if it surrounds something new and unproven. Start believing every new flavor that comes out is the next great thing and before you know it you're wondering why you're sweating pit stains in your t-shirt carrying another milk crate full of Flock of Seagulls and Spandau Ballet vinyl records three flights up to your new apartment. As they say in Missouri "Show Me" and while we like the direction this team is going there's still a lot of speculation and only a smattering of proven substance.

    The pitching trio of Stephen Strasbourg, Jordan Zimmerman and Drew Storen coupled with the eventual first coming of the Savior Bryce Harper has things moving along in the right direction, but the buzz surrounding these guys tends to deflect attention from several shortcomings. First off the middle of the field is weak with only 2B Danny Espinosa's glove projecting as a real asset when taking into account the potential value of Espinosa, SS Ian Desmond, and CFs Roger Bernadina and Rick Ankiel. The Sage of the Second Division First Basemen Adam LaRoche unexcitingly mans one corner and while Ryan Zimmerman in the hotter of the two corners is a true star the recently back from being kidnapped C Wilson Ramos and LF Michael Morse look like regression candidates in 2012. That makes our key player RF Jayson Werth. No he's never going back to the 5+ win player he was in Philly, but nagging injuries and a 62 point BABIP drop last year suggest better things at the plate this year. If Werth can adequately fill a 3-4-5 hole and things break right there could be meaningful baseball into the fall in D.C. But until Strasbourg shows he can handle an extended workload and Harper proves himself vs. MLB pitching we're taking a Costco type approach, that is we'll sample the hype, but we're not buying just yet.

New York Mets-Two words: Sandy Alderson...alright that's one name, but the point is clear. The Mets are done with the free spending, Hispanic-fication of the roster as attempted by Omar Minaya and into a full-fledged rebuilding mode. And Alderson appears to be as good a man as they could get for the job.

    From 1983-97 GM Alderson's Oakland A's went to 3 World Series (winning one) and one ALCS after slowly rebuilding a team that had lost 94 games in 1982 and restocking its farm system. At his next stop in San Diego he put together 2 Division winners in 5 years. By no means is his record spotless, but after Minaya and the chubby chasing likes of Steve Phillips it's nice to know there's a guy with some proven success calling the shots at Citi Field.

    The Mets aren't gonna win this year or even next so we're not going to go into particulars, but if you want a key player try Johan Santana on for size. Already Alderson has cleared the multi-million dollar likes of Carlos Beltran, K-Rod, Luis Castillo, Jose Reyes and...God help us all...Oliver Perez off the books and getting someone to take Santana off their hands would be a bonus. He's signed through 2013, but the problem is coming off a year lost to major surgery no one knows what to expect. He'll be 36 by the time the Mets figure to contend so the idea of dropping all or a portion of his salary while getting some young talent in return is one that plays into the overall scheme here. Santana was ready to go Opening Day so things are starting off right. And who knows maybe this time that light at the end of the tunnel in Flushing Meadows isn't the D-Train.

And one to temporarily distract you Mets fans...

Done. We'll try to update once a week with our insights...and yes more pictures...so stop on back. Beer...what a good idea!

Everybody Loves A Clown, Everybody Hates A Mime

    In response to tepid demand I felt it necessary to announce that like Monty Python's Norwegian Blue Parrot this blog is not dead, it's only sleeping...not to mention "pining for the fjords" , but that's neither here nor there. MLB stuff, maybe some old school wrestling and if nothing else hot girls in minimal clothes will hopefully be gracing these pages shortly. Oh what the Hell here's the latter and be sure to check back for more...

God Bless Us All, Everyone...

Oh, and Lenny Dykstra stuff up under "May 2011" heading at "The Dumbest Guy in the Room" and Redskin/RG3 stuff in December under "More Thieves and Liars". I've missed you guys...

Proud To Be An A$$hole From El Paso

    Will be keeping this short today after the Mexican Restaurant romp with colleagues last night. Let's just say I'm outta drinking shape for anything but beer. In fact the last time I did tequila shots and margaritas I ended up professing my undying love for the middle Hanson sibling only to find out later they were all brothers. And when did margaritas go the way of the traditional martini? Everyone they served me last night was so colorful, exotically flavored and glittery it looked like they tapped it out of Lady Gaga's ass. But who am I to complain...and moving on to some ancillary matters...

--Has A&E finally just given up and become the Storage Wars channel? It reminds me of the early days of the History Channel or as they should've called it back then-"Nazis 24/7". And if you're gonna go this way could we at least get less of fat ass Darrell in his wife-beater and more of Brandi in something low cut?

--To those who asked about it from yesterday's post it is true that Chaz Bono is shopping for a penis, but no he/she did not get it yet. My first thoughts on reading this were doesn't John Bobbitt have an extra one laying around? And secondly...are balls sold seperately?

--And finally enjoy the Bowl Game tonight...No not the National Championship game between LSU and Alabama, that's tomorrow, but the much anticipated GoDaddy.com Bowl featuring those bastions of gridiron greatness Northern Illinois and Arkansas State (see our bowl related Curse of Northern Illinois article here http://bowltilithurts.blogspot.com/2010/12/humanitarian-bowl-preview.html). Having these ridiculous 5th tier bowl games after the Rose, Orange, Sugar and Fiesta Bowls reminds me of the old Dana Gould bit about how the Larry King Live show used to feature two guests. They'd always put the top billed one on first as to not run short of time if the interview was going particularly well so that in the opening King would announce, "tonight's guests are Alexander Solzhitsnetzyn, the Pulitzer and Nobel Prize winning author who saw his entire family killed by the KGB then spent 19 years in a Soviet Gulag...and the man who played Fleagle on The Banana Splits." Enjoy the game...and, oh yeah, it's Arkansas State -1.5/65 if you want to try to at least make it interesting.

NFL
--In a disclaimer we'll point out that much like the rest of the year our official play on Houston/Cincinnati Under lost, but our analysis of a Saints dominated shootout and N.O/Over play was a winner. Today we'll just throw all the plays out there and you can judge for yourself.

--Disclaimer II: Fred of Fred's Picks texted, in light of his 4 game losing streak, "I abdicate my position much like Kaiser Wilhelm the 2nd!" I assume this means there will be no selection today...as to whether he'll also be exiling himself to The Netherlands, however, is unclear at this point.

--Pittsburgh at Denver: Talk is that this game could be make or break for the Grand Tim Tebow Experiment after two extraordinarily dismal performances to end the year. For those who have tried to forget I'll remind you that in Week 16 at Buffalo Tebow became the biggest turnover machine since Dave Krieg and his tiny, Vietnamese girl hands were fumbling away games  for Chuck Knox's Seahawks of the 90's. This was followed by a Week 17 disaster with the playoffs on the line where Timmy put up a 20.1 QB rating which is even harder than it seems in that much like filling in your name correctly on the SAT you get 18.0 points for just stepping on the field.
    All in all though we were big supporters of giving Tebow a chance. The Broncos are improving in many areas with the emergence of Von Miller on defense and Demaryius Thomas at WR, but they're still a safe distance from Super. Leaving Kyle Orton or some other middle of the road veteran out there while the highly drafted Tebow languished on the bench would be like the Kansas City Royals signing Jamie Moyer. What would be the point? Let the kid play and sink or swim on his own.
    So did he sink or did he swim? That's the problem. Kudos to the Broncos for tweaking the offense to play to Tebow's strengths, but things may have gone too far. An easy sked and inept performances by their opponents in the latter half of the season allowed the Denver offensive staff to put Tebow in a bubble for several weeks as they ran the ball ad nauseum and only let TT pass in late, desperate situations against loose, prevent defenses. Sure it all worked out in a playoff berth, but in terms of truly evaluating their unique QB the Broncos struck out.
    In the end it's obvious Tebow needs to show at least some vertical threat in order to keep defenses honest and allow the spread option game to work. That means again re-working the offense, giving Tebow plenty of game speed reps in that offense, constant re-evaluation of mechanics/decision making and a willingness to risk losing some games in order to get answers. Sure it might all work out in the end, but like being married, to say, Sharon Stone...it sounds like a lotta work. We expect GM Elway to be QB shopping in the offseason for someone of a more conventional bent.
    As for the game the question remains...How will Denver possibly score today? They have put up more than two TDs only twice in Tebow's 11 starts and those came against Oakland, who recently fired their Defensive Coordinator, and Minnesota who finished an ugly 31st in Total Defense. Today, however, they get the fairest stop troops in all the land as Pittsburgh finished #1 defensively giving up only 14.1 points per game. Even worse they held opponents to under 100 ypg on the ground and allowed the second least rushing TDs in the league. Toss in a blitzing James Harrison and a ball-hawking Troy Polamalu and you might want to keep the kids in their rooms as no impressionable youth should be exposed to what could be an unsafe helping of Brady Quinn.
   Earlier this year the Steelers took on a Seattle team sporting the youngest offensive line since the expansion year Carolina Panthers and shut them out 24-0. We see more of the same here so we'll go Pittsburgh -9 and with Big Ben still limping the run-first approach will hopefully keep this one Under 33.5 in the antidote to your Lions-Saints hangover.

Officially the Steelers don't have cheerleaders, but these girls seem to be in the spirit!

--Atlanta at New York Giants: On Tuesday the temperature here in New York was 8 with a wind chill of -2. Today it's 52 and could reach as high as 60. Up, down, big, small frankly my testicles don't know what to do these days. Seemingly this bodes well for the Dome as Home Falcons, but after many a frozen tailgating adventure at The Meadowlands we can assure it's always 20 degrees colder in the swamps of Jersey and the wind is constantly swirling. We've detailed Matt Ryan's H/A splits here in the past, but to update you this year he had a 102.9 QB rate and 17/5 ratio at home against 84.6 and 12/7 on the road.
    On the other hand we're no big fans of the Giants and feel their playoff clinching wins over the Jets and Cowboys were as much the result of flawed opponents as it was their own ability. The one thing we do know is that the Giants Front Four has been playing well. For the year they ranked tied with the Ravens for 3rd in sacks against the Falcons' below average 21st ranking. Both O-Lines allowed a similiar number of sacks so it should be the Giants in Matt Ryan's face more often than the Falcons in Eli Manning's.
    All this bodes well for another possible big game for WR Victor Cruz which seems stunning. Not that Cruz isn't a talent, but more that he has broken virtually every receiving record in the long history of the Giants franchise this year and still defenses refuse to pay him any special attention. Against the Jets Darrell Revis spent most of his time matched up against a hobbling Hakeem Nicks and broke up at least 3 passes intended for 4th stringer Ramses Barden, a player who I assume was given that name to remind his parents to use a condom in the future. Expect more of the same as from observation it appears the Falcons let their CBs play sides of the field rather than match up with certain receivers. Still we'll go Under 47.5 here, but make it a Favorites sweep of the weekend by taking the Giants -3.

There are no official Giant cheerleaders either. But at this point let me add that the ubiquity of these large breasted, small waisted women on the Internet has almost become boring...

...as I said..."almost"...

I couldn't write another line...nor do you want me when this is waiting...

Another British Page 6 girl...Can you get a U.S. subscription to the Daily Mirror?