A Portrait Of...A Drunk Man Part II (NFL Notes)

    First off thanks to everyone out there who has sent this site vaulting over the 10,000 hit mark. It may not be much compared to the Bleacher Reports and SB Nations of the world, but as an ex-girlfriend once said if it wasn't for bitterness and sarcasm I'd have no personality at all. So thanks to you mugs for helping me keep my essence alive...of course you could just be here for the Cheerleader pics, but I prefer to feel the love.

    Meanwhile at school this week the Forensic Club decided their first debate would tackle the current Ohio gerrymandering controversy which I believe centers around incumbents trying to redesign voting districts to resemble The Beaver from  Leave It To Beaver  ...er...wait, that's JerryMather-ing, not gerrymandering. You know what let's just get to the football.

NFL Notes

--To start I apologize to the people who have asked for more Fantasy Football advice. In another life I contributed articles to "Fantasy Depth Chart" and "Pro Football Focus-Fantasy", but I have to admit with all the injuries that take place today the whole effort seemed like a bigger waste of time than my weekend trying to break the bank at Full Tilt Poker (Chris Ferguson is no Jesus in my book). Plus when it comes to FF the internet is filled with more analysis than the Penguin Classics edition of Franz Kafka's Metamorphosis. We recommend the "Football Guys" website, but really if you drafted Jamaal Charles at #5 just take your wife out to see the foliage because that's the only "points" that are gonna get you a win on Sundays.

Now this is more my idea of "Fantasy" Football (wow, it took longer than I thought to break that line outta my notes)

--In an episode of the classic sitcom Taxi Ignatowski tries to impress Tony's sister, a concert flautist, by atonally humming his favorite classical music score at which point Louie grabs the dispatcher microphone and announces, "I didn't think I'd have to make this rule, but no Vivaldi in the garage. Thank you." Similiarly when I discussed being wary of QBs who are "athletes", but not great passers in college I didn't think I'd have to add "or guys who never threw a pass in college" yet due to the sad case of Matt Cassel it appears I do. At USC Cassel took to the air as often as John Madden throwing exactly 33 passes in 4 years of backing up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart and the 2008 Pro Football Prospectus called him "Matty McFumbles" saying that Bill Belichick advised his offense coordinators to never allow him to pass when mopping up for Tom Brady and we know that's not because Bitter Bill is adverse to running up the score. Cassel put up an 89.4 QB Rate as a pure "system guy" when Brady went down in 2008 which landed him a big free agent contract from the Brodie Croyle-led Chiefs so you can't really blame them there. You can though blame pundits who thought last year's leap from a 69.9 Rate (16-16 ratio) to a 93.0 (27-7) wasn't just a mirage of easy scheduling. Lord knows big college stats don't mean pro success, but hell at least mix in a start or two. KC could be coach and QB shopping come this Christmas.

--Speaking of which Blaine Gabbert gets the start for Jacksonville today and just like the TV show Lost was better in it's original incarnation-Gilligan's Island- Gabbert in his career at Missouri was actually a worse version of New Orleans clipboard carrier Chase Daniel in the same Gary Pinkel system. Of course Gabbert is 4 inches taller than Daniel, but as we mentioned last week looking stud-ly didn't work out so well for Derek Anderson and Gabbert's preseason efforts may indicate the same for him. This means we could be looking at the latest incarnation of my yet to catch-on "Heath Shuler Theory" which states that if no great QB emerges in the draft one(s) will be made up since it is the glamour position and teams drafting high are generally there because of poor QB play. I could elaborate more but my Oscar Madison style hunt-and-peck finger is cramping up so let's just say the 22 year old Gabbert is on the road versus a surprisingly good Cam Newton and Panthers HC Ron Rivera is a former Defensive Coordinator who should find ways to confuse the 22 year old in his 1st start so take Carolina and lay the 3 or 4.

--In other wagering advice we are not riders on the Tampa Bay bandwagon this year, but we also feel Atlanta is coming off a season where they played over their heads. The biggest problem for Atlanta, as it often is with Dome teams, is playing well on the road. Matt Ryan has a career 96.7 QB Rate in the Georgia Dome against just 79.4 on the road. The Falcons were dumped in Chicago opening week, but the comeback win over a partially Vick-less Philly at home last week keeps their stock high. So much so that the Bucs could be worth a look at around a pick, but then again I'm still a little buzzed from last night so I'll let you decide.

Blah, blah...something about Pirate Booty...blah, blah. These things are practically writing themselves at this point.

--Also see our last week's post for the "Win Differential Theory" that identifies over/underrated teams. It is now 9-3 ATS this year after a 4-2 last week. Vegas adjusts remember, but if you want to take a flier on those teams we'll remind you that it's...Bet On: Cincinnati, Minnesota, Carolina...Bet Against: Kansas City, St. Louis, Tampa Bay.

--As for Monday Night analysis the Redskins and the questionably resurrected Rex Grossman go on the road for the first time to face a good Dallas pass rush. DeMarcus Ware has been penetrating backfields like Ricky Martin at a Clay Aiken pool party and if it weren't for the Dallas offense looking like the field after the Battle of Antietam we'd be all over Dallas. Monitor the Romo, F. Jones, Dez Bryant (Miles Austin is out) health situation. If it looks bad maybe an Under will be the play.

--And in closing two games today have Totals over 50 which is rare. New Orleans/Houston is at 52 and New England/Buffalo is at 54. You almost have to like the latter as Buffalo was lit up by the tandem of Jason Campbell to 4th Round rookie Denarious Moore last week so Brady to Welker, Branch, Gronkowski et. al. should have a field day weather permitting. Watching last week's N.E./S.D. game it almost made you wonder why the Patriots bother to run the ball? Thus my Fantasy tip of the week is trade whatever stud you have to to get Rob Gronkowski. Aaron Hernandez is out four weeks and neither Yahoo or NFL.com list another TE on the depth charts. This looks like 2007 all over again only without Randy Moss the TDs are spread more so grab Woodhead, BGE, Julian Edelman, the under-achieving Ocho Cinco or Matthew Slater they're all potential studs depending on injuries and circumstances and have a hell of a lot better upside than Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian would appear to have this year.

And as promised "Brit Clit" Lucy Pinder from last week's Lump Detection Instructional photo. If you look like this and screw up your life, sorry, but it's all on you...I'm just sayin'...

Thanks for your Patronage and feel free to check out our CFB notes, Old School Wrestling articles ("Crimson Mask" and "Seminal Sluts" titles) and Rex Ryan Foot Fetish All-Star posts throughout the site. You guys...what can I say...

A Portrait Of The Artist As A Drunk Man

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A Bad Liver...The Deuce (NFL Notes)

    First off a "shout out" to the makers of Depends. For years the only thing holding me back from a completely sedentary football Sunday was going to the bathroom. Now with a mini-fridge full of beer to the right of my couch, bags of chips to my left and a Depends velcro-ed in place I never have to move. Hell, I dropped a deuce about 40 minutes ago and I never felt freer. I'm nothing if not an educator...

    Next for those who took our advice on the Illinois-Arizona State game we were not trying to pull a fast one by posting the line at -2.5. It actually opened at -2 and when we posted in the A.M. it was up to -2.5 at the Hilton. Later it jumped to -3.5 or -4 and if you got it there you lost. Sorry, but remember like I tell people about my drinking these picks are for recreational purposes only.

NFL WEEK 1

--Dear God Donovan McNabb has fallen apart faster than a futon in a fat guy's house. His 76 or so yard effort was the worst performance through the air this side of Reno, but it shouldn't come as a surprise. I believe I once described Philly HC Andy Reid as less of a Chippendale and more of a Chip-A-Hoy dancer, but he can sure coach up some offense. His teams have been Top 10 in points scored each of the last 4 years and players like Ricky Watters, Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, L.J. Smith and others have been Fantasy forces under him, Fantasy flops after moving on. This tells us that first off Reid puts his skill players in the best position possible to succeed and secondly that he knows when their effectiveness is up and jettisons them accordingly. D-Mac went from a 92.9 QB Rate his last year in Philly to a 77.1 last year in D.C.. Also at 35 he's two years past the cutoff of when QBs begin their decline according to Football Outsiders. Add in that he always was a cut below the Bradys, P. Mannings and Breeses of the world and it could be a long year for Percy Harvin and a buttload of carries for Adrian Peterson in Minny this year.

--Speaking of D.C. did Rex Grossman actually look good last week. Like another Christina Applegate sitcom you just expect Rex to come, fail and disappear like so many times before, but like the successful debut of Up All Night maybe Rexy can be viable well into the season. I say this because the usually imaginative play calling of a Mike Shanahan offense was gone on Sunday. On first down Tim Hightower was picking up ground like he was trying to take the Somme in 1916. Yet from the point at which they had a 7 point lead late in the third quarter OC Kyle Shanahan showed all the imagination of Ralph Kramden's interior designer with a predictable, clock-eating run on first down over and over again that put Grossman in 2nd and 3rd and long situations against a good NYG rush. That they got out with a 14 point win may be testament to Grossman's and the defense's improvement...or then again maybe Plaxico Burress is right about Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning. But at least it's a little interesting for Redskins fans moving forward.

Could the Redskins actually be "bursting" with potential this year?...No, I mean on the field, guy...

--My friend Fred's last 6 jobs have been for companies that went out of business. His resume makes him look like a One Man Recession and consequently he is currently unemployed. Colts HC Jim Caldwell went 26-63 as a HC at Wake Forest (12-52 in conference) yet landed a position of which there are only 32 in the entire world. Sure Wake is no CFB power, but the coach that followed him, Jim Grobe immediately reeled of two straight winning seasons and a 64-61 record overall. The old-boy coaching network has been rehashing clowns like Dan Henning, Woody Widenhofer and Jerry Glanville for years and I was certain Caldwell was of that ilk. What I forgot is that Peyton Manning could make Herm Edwards look like Pop Warner. Now, however, with Manning on the shelf possibly for the year it'll be interesting to see how Jimmy C. rallies the troops in Indy. First week? Not so good guy.

--In a similiar vein beware of QBs like Josh Freeman and Tavaris Jackson (probably didn't have to clue you in to the latter) whose college stats, both personal and team record-wise, are not that great. The poster boy for this effect is ex-Brown Derek Anderson who was anointed the next coming of Brian Sipe after half a good season in 2007. Sure at 6-6, 240 pounds Anderson looked like a stud, but as Billy Beane said about looks vs. talent in Moneyball, "we're not selling jeans here". Instead folks should've focused on the fact that Anderson completed only 50.7% of his passes and averaged 1.5 INTs a game at Oregon State. But then again this is not news to fans of the Arizona Cardinals last year.

--And since we brought up Josh Freeman we should also mention that his Bucs fall on the wrong side of one the better predictors of team fortunes in recent years. Obviously in a mere 16 game season luck can play a big part in a team's fortunes. Thus wild swings do occur in won-loss records from year to year. Since 2008 10 teams have either improved or declined by 6 or more games from one season to the next and all of those teams have gone in the opposite direction the following year (the improvers win total declining and vice versa). In fact the difference has averaged a fairly significant 3.5 gain/loss per team. From 2009 to 2010 6 teams fit this criteria: Min. -6, Car. -6, Cin. -6, K.C. +6, St.L. +6, T.B. +7. More importantly by betting on the decliners (Min., Car., Cin.) and against the gainers (K.C., St.L., T.B) last week you went 5-1 ATS with the only loser being Carolina at +6.5 losing by 7 unless of course you "bought the hook"...and if you don't know what that means please be careful treading the Offshore Wagering waters.

I couldn't find a good cheerleader pic. But remembering to check for lumps is always worth a reminder.

--The Jets won Week 1, but can someone explain why the "Overthrowin' Trojan" Mark Sanchez was allowed to heave 44 passes while a battering ram like Shonn Greene had only 10 carries. In the Redskins section of this article we called for the Shanahans to be more imaginative offensively, but that's because the Giants were moving fairly effectively against one of the worst defenses of 2010 and they needed to build their lead when the opportunity presented itself. The Jets, on the other hand, have one of the best defenses in the NFL and a strong O-Line. They can afford to pound the ball even if only to avoid turnovers, win the field position battle and hopefully reap the rewards later. Turning "Off The Marky" Mark loose in a shootout with Romo, Bryant, Austin and Witten hardly plays to your strength. Who knows maybe it was a one week experiment, maybe they learned their lesson, maybe the Uncle Buck of the Toe Suck Rex Ryan was distracted by a sandal-ed foot propped up in the first row. But please God for the sake of my Fantasy season let them come to their senses and feed Greene the rock in Week 2.

--And finally Pete Carroll and the Seahawks bring Tavaris Jackson and the youngest starting offensive line since Carolina in 1995 (their expansion year) to Pittsburgh today. In short if you have the Steelers as your Fantasy defense you win. In long (can I write that?) the Steelers are coming off a humiliating loss to Baltimore last week. In 2010 the 'Burghers lost 4 games and followed up with wins of 18, 6, 32 and 24 points with all the double digit wins coming at home. It's time to lay more wood than Tommy Lee in the Pam Anderson sex video...take the Steelers -14.

I'm disappointed...you mean they couldn't work a gun, muscle car and beer into this picture too?

A Bad Liver And Some Random Thoughts

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