Why I'm Not Speaking To Richard Dawson & More Tales From The Drunk Side

--First let's start out by paying our respects after a tough week in the music biz that saw the passing of Dick Clark, Levon Helm and Greg Ham, better known as the flautist for Men At Work...and that's the last time I expect to type the word "flautist" here until Ian Anderson passes which probably won't be for a long time as while he may be "too old to Rock-n-Roll, he's much too young to die."...And yes that's about the level of the humor here so you may wanna get out now.

The Band. RIP Richard Manuel, Levon Helm and Rick Danko.

--Meanwhile in Hollywood word is former Will & Grace star Debra Messing will be appearing topless in Allure Magazine...which reminds me my 12 year-old nephew is having a pool party next weekend. Actually it's not fair to call Messing flat-chested...she's really more concave. So even as a big fan of the topless genre, like a Debra Messing-shaped rock this pictorial is gonna be easy to skip.

Where "motorboats" go to die...Is there an antonym for cleavage?

--In other news from California Former Met/Phillie/Stock Guru Lenny Dykstra was sentenced to 9 months incarceration in a place where they have a very different definition of the term "backdoor slider" for taking liberties with various maids in his employ. Nails pleaded No Contest and threw himself at the mercy of the judge like he was George Costanza being fired from Pendant Publishing..."I gotta claim ignorance on this one. If I had known this type of thing was frowned upon..." For more on this ever-growing pile of human refuse see our article "The Dumbest Guy In The Room" @ http://bowltilithurts.blogspot.com/2011/05/dumbest-guy-in-room.html

Someone sent this via E-mail and that's why I love you mugs...you're the only ones that "get" me...

--And while we're talking about guys having bad weeks here's Detroit starter Rick Porcello's line from Saturday: 10 H, 9 R, 8 ER...in 1 IP! I haven't seen anyone devastated by runs that quickly this side of Taco Bell or a cholera epidemic. His ERA went from 1.86 to 6.34 with this one outing in what has to be the biggest slaughter while "taking the hill" since Pickett's Charge. Better, or any, luck next time, guy.

--Almost forgot to post this pic of Tampa Bay RF Luke Scott who appears to be channeling his inner-Wolverine this season Usually one doesn't see mutton chops like this outside a Renaissance Faire or since Russians were trying to get around Peter The Great's Beard Tax circa 1700. Don't know if it helps his hitting, but I do know he's got a lotta cleaning up to do if he wants to be "sponge-worthy"...as this guy can attest.

--A coupla weeks back we promised Mets, so here it is...

--There's an apocryphal story about a middle age guy complaining about having to get up at night to pee only to have an 80 year-old overhear and respond, "hey, at least you get up..." That's kinda the difference between being the Mets versus say the Royals or Pirates. You see the Royals and Pirates, despite the hype for the former and the remarkable 2011 first half of the latter, have no hope or at least very little by dint of their payroll. For them to win on a consistent basis they not only have to develop virtually all their top talent, but do so on a time coordinated basis so that arbitration and free-agent eligibility doesn't impact their ability to sign veteran parts to fill out their roster or result in some young talent leaving before other has the chance to develop. Sure the Rays are doing it now and Oakland had their "Moneyball" run, but these are the exceptions and as the A's present struggles indicate can be short-lived.

    The Mets, on the other hand, have money, even post-Madoff, and last year checked in with the 5th highest payroll in baseball at over $142M spent. As we mentioned in our NL East Preview they also have a fairly shrewd GM in Sandy Alderson now after a run of shaky management under Omar Minaya and everyone's favorite silver-haired chubby chaser Steve Phillips. Rather than try to plug the holes in this long sinking ship Alderson decided to let it capsize and build from scratch. To this end he jettisoned $59M in salary at the end of 2011 by either trading or not re-signing the Spanish Armada of Under-achievement known as Carlos Beltran, Ollie Perez, K-Rod, Hamstring Jose Reyes and Luis Castillo. At the end of 2013 another $41M goes away courtesy of Johan Santana and Jason Bay and thus the target date to contend again is 2014. But with whom is the question...

    So who might still be Amazin' if/when the tide turns in Flushing? Let's break this down on a mediocrity by mediocrity basis:

C  Josh Thole: The baseball version of Pink Slime. JT is roster filler with no pop, no glove and who never saw a Lefty he couldn't dribble out weakly to second off. Still catcher is a need position throughout the MLB and Thole could hang around as a backup due to his ability to exceed replacement level vs. RHP. Hell if guys like Paul Bako and Brian Schneider can carve out careers why not Thole. Verdict...Gone/Backup.

1B Ike Davis: Most projection systems out there had this 25 year-old pegged for a breakout year until he contracted an offseason case of Valley Fever which is, I believe, a blood disease that causes you to have the hots for Wayne Gretzky's wife. He missed time in the Spring and started off slow, but his bat has picked up of late. He'll be coming into his prime 27 year-old season in 2014 when the Mets hope to contend and his legit power for the position will allow them to allocate big bucks elsewhere...Keeper.

2B Daniel Murphy: Think Super Joe McEwing, but with a bat. Not exactly a Leatherneck at any position, but he can cover all 4 corners plus second and not completely undermine your plans. He could start for a bottom feeder or be a Uber-Utility type for a contender. Since he wouldn't bring much back in a trade the call is probably his...Backup/Gone.

SS Ruben Tejada: This guy has Padres written all over him...or Mariners. Anyplace where the park would suppress most shortstops power anyway thereby making his complete lack of same inconsequential. Doesn't field, run or draw walks to such a degree that you have to take notice. Mets fans should hope he gets hot for a stretch so they can ship him elsewhere for a usable relief piece...Gone.

3B David Wright: In recent years Wright's numbers have been up and down more than those guys in the Flomax commercial. He rebounded from a 10 HR 2009 with 29 dingers and .850+ OPS in 2010, but any hope for a career take-off fell by the wayside as he battled a long-term injury that limited him to 447 PAs in 2011. Off to a solid start this year the question is whether he's a cornerstone or trade chip? Oddly the better Wright plays the more likely he is to be gone. With an extra playoff team and some wide-open races any number of teams from the Dodgers to the Rockies to the Blue Jays to the Angels could come offering prospects and the better Wright's numbers the more MLB-ready those players will be. That means Wright would have to get through two July 31sts and offseasons to be part of the expected turnaround. As the Metskis only real blue-chip bait we don't see that happenin'...Gone.

Recent rumors of a David Wright/Erin Andrews (ESPN) sex tape proved to be a hoax. I was gonna put a pic of Erin Andrews here, but she's always wearing so many clothes. This girl is also named Erin Andrews and doesn't appear to have the same problem. Enjoy!

LF Jason Bay: No one's gone off a cliff like this since the closing scene of Thelma & Louise. If you don't think Park Factor matters check out this guy's numbers from his last year in Fenway compared to his first two at Citi Field. He went from a .921 OPS in 2009 to .703 last year and it hasn't even been that pretty as his fielding has gone in the tank as well. Oh and did we mention he's off to .240 BA start, on pace to strike out 170 times (500 ABs), is currently on the DL and turns 34 before the season's out...GONE!

CF Angel Torres/Kirk Nieuwenheis: This is a position where the Mets might really throw some money around in the coming offseasons. Torres is injured and already 34...Gone. This has allowed Nieuwenheis to goose step into Center, but his speed and defense indicate he's headed for a corner. His 2010 breakout at Double A was followed by similiar, albeit injury truncated, success at Triple A last year so getting him some major league exposure at 24 is a good thing. He's currently sporting a .928 OPS in a Lilliputian sample size, but at least he hasn't been overwhelmed...Keeper.

RF Lucas Duda: He's stiffer than Mitt Romney at Coachella in the field and if he raced Jessica Simpson right now he'd finish third, still the guy can flat-out hit. If this were the AL there'd be no problem. Fortunately he hits from the platoon heavy left side and shows terrific power numbers versus RHP so while he may not be a starter for an improved Mets team he could carve out a place as a solid 1B/LF/RF swing guy...Keeper.

SP Johan Santana: Currently Santana is unmoveable because of his contract and questions surrounding his health. Early results have been mixed as he pitched well in two 5 inning starts against the Chipper-less Braves and (so far) lumber challenged Nats. Then his last outing he couldn't make it out of the second as the Chipper-filled Braves "nocohoma-ed" him for 6 runs in one and one third. He's coming off major shoulder surgery and well on the unfriendly side of 30 and though he won the pitching Triple Crown (K, Wins, ERA) in 2006 the Mets can't wait to get him off their payroll...and maybe get Phil Humber back as well...Gone.

SP Mike Pelfrey: For a stone-cold sinkerballer this guy gets taken deep more often than Jodie Foster in The Accused. Problem is he never developed another quality offering meaning he gets few strikeouts and hitters are content to wait out his mistakes. He's still only 28 and that may explain why the Mets didn't move him after his 15 win 2010. Their reward was a 7-13, 4.74 ERA 2011. Like cat genitalia the upside here is hard to find...Gone.

SP Jonathan Niese: The current incarnation of the Amazin's features less stars than the night sky over Mexico City and Niese is almost certain to never escape from the smog. That, however, doesn't make him worthless. Joe Theismann once said of a 6th round pick on ESPN's Draft Day Special, "hey, you need bodies to fill out mini-camps and things" and while Niese is far more functional than that he's probably no more than a back-end starter/swingman on a true contender. That's still important, but not important enough that he couldn't be packaged in a blockbuster deal without batting an eye. We'll call him a...Keeper?

SP Dillon Gee: Whiz, he's...Gone.

SP R.A. Dickey: If the Mets do rise from the ashes to contention Dickey and his fluttering balls could be their version of Tim Wakefield circa 2004-07. For a knuckleballer he's remarably consistent, eating innings and keeping the ball in the park at a reasonable rate. Hey, worse things could happen...like Victor Zambrano or Mister Koo...Keeper.

Closer/Pen Almost All Gone Bullpens are constantly changing these days so Alderson will probably try to mix and match with homegrown talent like Jennry Mejia and Robert Carson interspersed with free agents and waiver claims...oh and Miguel Batista probably won't be around either.



Honestly I have no idea what's going on here, but God bless..

We're done. Next time we'll have a look at early under-achievers Boston and Anaheim, as well as, some stuff about Stephen Strasburg and maybe the Brian Wilson crap we didn't have space for this time around. Until then we'll be drinkin' to keep from cryin'...

Notes From The Karl Farbman Of Despair (MLB Stuff)

Back from the Mall which begged the question, "Why do I bother leaving the house at all?" And up with a quick notes column and some brief thoughts on the early MLB season and other nonsense:

Another reason not to leave the house...sadly not mine, but another reason just the same...

--First up it has been brought to our attention that the Lingerie Football League has suspended operations for the 2012 season (see here http://blog.chron.com/sportsupdate/2012/04/u-s-lingerie-football-league-to-forgo-2012-season/#4426-11 ) which doesn't really bother me since I only watch it for the articles anyway. According to a league spokesman there will be exhibitions available this year on a PPV basis, but why would I pay to see bodacious bimbos bouncing about in barely any clothes when I already get Univision for free...

The Chicago Bliss, we hardly knew ye...guess it's back to my other "Fantasy" Football teams now.

--And now Ryan Braun. As we all know the Hebrew Hammer, the Semitic Slammer, the Gaza Rip, the Jewish Jacker, the Zionist Zephyr...alright I'm done now...avoided his 50-game Performance Enhancing Drug (PED) suspension on a technicality related to the handling of his offending sample. Realizing that this looked to the unwashed masses like another case of Loot over Legitimacy Braun then hinted that, if truth be told, there was a far more valid reason for him getting off and being deemed clean, but then he, not suprisingly, refused to tell that, supposed, truth and clear his name.

    At this point I think this has become an all too familiar refrain. Just like we all know that the 6' 2", 115 lbs. psuedo-skeleton with brown teeth and burn marks on his fingers buying 27 boxes of Sudafed at Walgreen's doesn't have the sniffles-well, maybe he does but that's not an anti-biotic issue-we know MLBers are doing anything and everything to get an edge, lame defenses notwithstanding.

    So now everyone outside of Cheese Country will be watching Braun's HR total viewing any drop as an indicator of his cheating and subsequent lying ways, but this is the narrow view. The record smashing of a muscled Mark McGwire and bloated Barry Bonds has led everyone to equate PEDs with power and strength. Certainly, as proven by bodybuilders and Pro Wrestlers, longterm cycling will lead to bulked up muscle mass, but that may not be the benefit that most Diamond druggists are getting. In the real world steroids and their like are used to stimulate healing and recovery, a not unimportant consideration for players over a grueling 162 game schedule. Or in real world terms think of David Ortiz's (whose paunchy, flabby physique reminds us of the old Dusty Rhodes proclamation, "there ain't a steee-roid runnin' through this body"...no shit) power outage of a few years back while playing through a wrist injury as the type of thing that can happen, unreported often, to ballplayers throughout a given year.

    As for Braun he's put up well in excess of 600 plate appearances in the last 3 years with remarkably steady production across the board. Of course this could just be a function of his being in his 25-27 year-old prime. In 2009, however, we had Braun on our Fantasy team and watched his season closely. From virtually spring training on reports were that Rockin' Ryan was suffering from side/rib concerns and a mere trunk twist away from the DL yet he never missed more than a game here and there, put up over 700 PAs and delivered spectacular numbers that allowed even this eternally pessimistic owner to pull "a Sutter" (the feet up, arms crossed pose that Whitey Herzog affected whenever shut down closer Bruce Sutter entered a game for the 80's Cardinals) while waltzing to a title.

    So if you're like us and get your pathetic, lazy-ass jollies from seeing the "Doers and Thinkers", as Waylon Jennings once put it, of the world get their occasional comeuppance keep an eye on Ryan Braun's health this season it just might tell us more than all the urine in Milwaukee.

Steroids...they're not always a bad thing (Note: this is the sadly deceased Marianna Komlos who portrayed "Mrs. Cleavage" as part of a Leave It To Beaver gimick in one of the strangest WWE storylines ever- http://prowrestling.wikia.com/wiki/Marianna )

--In a similiar note on the Professional Eating Circuit is Marijuana considered a Performance Enhancing Drug?

--I'm not really a "car guy" and I don't feel the "need for speed". In fact the only speeding ticket I ever received was in a college parking deck for doing 9 in a 5 MPH zone which I tried to get out of by explaing to the Rent-A-Cop that "there's no way I was doing 9, my car shimmies at 8...I'd have known if I was doing 9". And this is how we awkwardly stumble into the annual debate regarding Tim Lincecum's velocity.

    It seems like every year this issue comes up and every year it's forgotten in short order as T-Lin begins posting his usual numbers as the weather heats up or after a few poor mid-season outings regardless of what the speed gun is reading. At this point, however, let us state that velocity is important. For every Jamie Moyer that wins with guile there are 20 Aaron Laffey's whose fleeting success is forgotten amidst a cacophany of unconditional releases and occasional LOOGY-dom (Lefty One Out Guy). Even the successful survivors like Ted Lilly, Randy Wolf and the current incarnation of Freddy Garcia struggle to top the 12-14 win and .500 record mark. You see like dating, say J-Lo, battling through MLB lineups on your wits and craftiness alone is difficult what with outthinking the hitter, carrying around her "purse dog", living on the corners, helping with hair extensions, getting a favorable umpire, hearing about how Steven Tyler smells, counting on your defense...er...perhaps I've mixed up my metaphors here, but you get the point, it's Hard Work.

    So does that mean that the drop from a 92.8 MPH average fastball last year to a 90.5 reading in his two disastrous starts (well one disastrous, the other just so-so) this year is meaningful? Yes...and no. First despite his goofy demeanor Lincecum knows his craft. He's survived similiar drops by developing and working his changeup and slider to keep hitters off balance with a different look and pattern. More importantly TL seems to know his body. At 160 pounds he's more susceptible to the rigors of 30-35 starts than say your C.C. Sabathia's and Felix Hernandez's. He's had consecutive seasons of 33 starts and 200+ innings so there is a good chance Lincecum is just gearing himself up slowly for what would appear to be the long playoff run ahead. One indication of this is that according to pitch stats he's thrown only a handful of sliders, a pitch he's used to great effect in recent years, in his first two starts resorting to mostly fastballs and changeups. So if you're the kinda person who likes to make the occasional sports "investment", shall we say, Google PITCH F/X stats and keep an eye on the breakdown of pitches in Lincecum starts. Even if the velocity doesn't come back a willingness to mix in more sliders may be the key that the Giants ace is ready to make his move...I mean, no inducement to gamble, but we're just sayin'...

Smart girls know it's not all about speed...

--And speaking of gambling how 'bout going against the Twins vs. Left-Handed pitching. Now saying the Twins stink this year is not exactly news, but a quick perusal of their lineup shows it to be spectacularly unbalanced to as Rocky Balboa would say the "South Philly, South Jersey, south paw" side. In two games this year vs. C.J. Wilson and Matt Harrison the Twins lineup got beat up by Lefties worse than Phil Mickelson's teenage penis recording only 10 hits, 2 runs and a 0.72 ERA against in those efforts. Being anchored by Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer no doubt makes facing Lefties a problem, but it's excerbated by the non-platoon of port siders Chris Parmelee and Sean Burroughs at first, a lefty leadoff man in Denard Span, the acquisition of Devil-handed (at least hitting-wise) Clete Thomas to cover RF and the fact that switch-hitters Ryan Doumit and Alexi Casilla both show considerably a higher OPS vs. RHP. Heck if lefty masher Josh Willingham goes down to injury you may wanna grab the baby's college fund and head to Vegas...but then as our College Football Selections will attest we've been wrong before. Still after being owned by Wilson/Harrison, but beating up on top line righties Jered Weaver and Dan Haren this may be a trend to keep an eye on.

I'd like to lose at Old Maid to this girl...

That's enough for today...next week we'll have a Mets overview (hopefully before the inevitable crash) and the fallout from the decision of S.F. closer Brian Wilson to join the latest ZZ Top tour or whatever the Hell is gonna keep him out the rest of the year. Drink up, be nauseous!

Will Good Time Charlie (Manuel) Get The Blues? (NL East Preview)

    If a guy like me is ever gonna hook up with a woman again, let's face facts, I gotta try...hard. Dinners, movies, conversation and even, good God, caring are a prerequisite if I'm gonna get a female to stand even 5 minutes in my presence. The problem is I just can't muster the strength to give a crap anymore. Not about your cat, your friends, your job or anything to do with vampires and/or zombies. Thus I'm always looking for pickup lines as a form of weaseling my way in without all the heavy lifting. In the past I've borrowed from Kevin James' King of Queens character, "I don't know if you ladies watch Professional Roller Derby, but I'm Doug Heffernan" and comedian Doug Benson, "My penis just died can I bury it in your ass" with, as you might expect, widely varying degrees of success.

    This year I've decided to go with the line Arnold Poindexter used in Revenge of the Nerds on an Omega Moo sorority sister, "So would you rather live in the ascendancy of a civilization or it's decline?"; or as I'm paraphrasing, "So who do you like in the NL East?"

    The teams on the ascendancy here are the Braves and their young arms (Hanson, Beachy, Kimbrel, Venters) and the Nationals with the dynamic duo of Stephen Strasbourg and Bryce Harper creating perhaps overly lofty expectations. The team in decline would have to be the Phillies due to an aging and increasingly brittle infield. Though bringing the talents of Halladay, Lee and Hamels to the hill 3 out of every 5 days hardly makes this the Last Days of Rome. Meanwhile the Marlins play the part of the suddenly resource rich former third world country. A wild card that has to be taken seriously due to the money they've brought to the table. And as for the Mets in this analogy, well, one conjures up images of those African tribes that are discovered living untouched by civilization for thousands of years. Best just to pull closed the curtain and leave them blissfully unaware of just how bad they've got it.

    So here now is our NL East predictions with overlooked, but potentially key players noted in bold. Thanks for participating...

NL East (in order of finish)
Philadelphia Phillies-When a multi-millionaire, rock star, horn-dog like Mick Jagger tells me "I Can't Get No Satisfaction" it's a little hard to believe. Like Huey Lewis singing "I Wanna New Drug" (shut up and get back in your minivan Yuppie scum) or Gloria Gaynor saying "I Will Survive" (yeah, whatever happened to her?). But one look at Sir Mick's creased and craggy visage of late does at least lend some authenticity to the singing of "Mother's Little Helper"...Indeed it is a drag getting old.



    We were very tempted to put the Braves here, but the aforementioned starters coupled with a strong, shored up bullpen headed by Jonathan Papelbon and nasty Antonio "You Magnificent" Bastardo is enough to give them the nod. Still despite all the mound magnificence there seems to be some trepidation surrounding this team because of an aging and increasingly brittle everyday core.

    The entire right side of the infield will be on the DL to start the season. Ryan Howard being out until June and Chase Utley dealing with another nagging injury the likes of which have sent his once consistent numbers into a spiral the last two years. Throw in 36 year old Placido Polanco another player plagued by declining production and DL time and you have a growing problem in Philly which is only compounded by a pair of backup infielders in Michael Martinez and Freddy Galvis whose work in the batter box often evokes cries of "nice job, does your husband play?" from the Broad Street Phaithful. Mix in probable regression from 2011 surprise stars Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz and it seems possible even this killer staff could be wasted by a few bad breaks...or sprains...or hyperextensions.

    So for our key player we're going to create a three-headed monster of Laynce Nix/Domonic Brown/John Mayberry, Jr.. Ty Wiggington can suffice at 1B in the short term, Polanco is currently healthy and Victorino and Ruiz are expected to regress slightly not nosedive per most projections. That means the one big question mark, assuming Utley is not out longer than expected, is in LF where Mayberry will platoon with Nix/Brown. As the short side of the platoon Mayberry, who tweaked his stance last year and finally delivered on some of the power potential his lineage hints at, should be fine. Thus either Brown or Nix needs to step up in what is expected to be a very competitive division. Nix provides veteran pop, but also brings an abysmal .288 OBP to bear so the Phillies are hoping the 24 year old Brown starts to live up to his can't-miss prospect projection. Last year D-Bro turned around a poor K/BB ration first in Triple-A and then in 210 ABs at the major level. If Mayberry maintains most of the gains he made last year and Brown begins to flower it could be Party-Time at Pat's Cheesesteaks come October...then again it could...aw Hell we won't even say it.

Yes, it should be a tight one in the NL East race this year.

Atlanta Braves- An edition of the soon to be obsolete print edition of The Encyclopedia Britannica mentions that after retiring from politics ex-President John Adams liked to spend his days "admiring his prodigious manure pile which grew incrementally by the day." Many Atlanta fans have compared the 2011 Braves season to a pile of manure, but not because they admired it or it grew incrementally.

    In fact the Braves season more resembled the "Drunkards Walk Theory" which states that things like the stock market or a baseball season do not move in a straight line, but rather lurch forward and pitch backward like a drunk trying to make it home down a city sidewalk. The idea being I...er I mean...the drunk will eventually reach his destination, but in an irregular path of progress and decline. For the inebriated Bravos it was a positive looking 3 steps forward, 1 step backward until with 30 games left and a 9.5 game lead in the Wild Card the final round of Jello shots apparently kicked in and they didn't just stumble backwards, but off the curb and into a speeding bus eventually losing in the 13th inning of the last game of the season to send eventual World Series winner St. Louis to the playoffs and themselves to the golf course.

    The problen, of course, was the bats. ATL finished 23rd overall in runs scored and broken down sabermetrically they wound up an even worse 26th in True Average (TAv). Combine that with a middling defense and a young and talented, but overworked bullpen and you can see how a few bad bounces could skew short term results and lead to such a collapse. In short, the Braves had little  margin for error due to their offensive ineptitude and paid an unlucky price.

    This year it could be more of the same as the Braves thanks to the range challenged and Roberto Duran Hands-of-Stone duo of Freddie Freeman and Dan Uggla appear to be the worst defensive club in the division. Combine that with the fragility of the already DL-ed Chipper Jones, who's still arguably their most productive bat when healthy, and it could be another tight-rope walk to reach the playoffs.

    That said the guy who has to deliver is Jason Heyward. He may not be under the radar, but his precipitous decline from 3.9 WARP to 0.5 last year was more than enough to cost Atlanta the Wild Card. Good news is it was partially manifested by a decidedly low .260 BABIP. With even average luck on balls in play Heyward should add 1.5 to 2 wins to his total from last year. Now the question is will it be enough to not only catch the Phils, but hold off the hard charging Nats and Marlins.

The Braves used to play in Boston...right?

Miami Marlins-I can still remember my Mom sitting at the dinner table and proclaming that "beauty is skin deep, but ugly goes right to the bone"...then she turned away and started talking to my sister. In short you can slap a coat of concealer and a pushup bra on any Hollywood starlet and look good in the short term, but time will eventually seperate the timeless Christie Brinkley's and Jane Seymour's from the in seclusion for a reason Melanie Griffith's of the world (if only Antonio Banderas had such foresight). And that brings us to the new and supposedly improved Marlins.

    The key additions in Miami this year are Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Mark Buehrle who combined with new manager Ozzie Guillen and the excitement over the grand opening of a state-of-the-art ballpark have led to expectations perhaps getting out of hand. After all this is essentially still a team that lost 92 games last year, hasn't made the playoffs since 2003 and plays in far and away the toughest division in the National League. Breaking the hype down further Reyes is arguably the biggest non-pitcher injury risk in all of baseball with a hammy that's been glazed so often you may as well toss a pineapple ring on top of it at this point and at 34 with a declining K rate, a ready to regress .269 BABIP and a move out of every pitcher's favorite park in S.D. is Heath Bell really that much of an upgrade over The Closer Formerly Known As Leo Nunez?

    Still there's plenty here to suggest that Miami will close the gap on the Braves and Phillies considerably and even vie for a WC spot. While not spectacular Mark Buerhle is as consistent as they come and could even see a bump in his numbers this year with a new league full of hitters who have yet to be baffled by his off-speed stuff, Hanley Ramirez is due for a rebound of sorts after providing no value in 2011 and the starting 4 at least is set and solid with Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Josh Johnson.

    Thus the key is the core that contributed to those 92 losses playing better. Giancarlo nee Mike Stanton is a monster, but may have trouble living up to his breakout 2011 so we'll call our key player LF Logan Morrison who needs to build off his 23 homer, .798 OPS season to compensate for any decline by Stanton and cover the Emilio Bonifacio/Chris Coghlan/Scott Cousins mess that will handle CF. Projections are that Morrison overshot his power last year, but the new park is expected to be left-handed power friendly and at 24 he's still young enough to build on prior success. In the end, though, we're not buying the hype coming outta South Beach and think the Marlins, while still worth a roll in the hay, are not the full season beauty some are making them out to be.

Washington Nationals-And speaking of hype...it is almost always a bad thing to get caught up in especially if it surrounds something new and unproven. Start believing every new flavor that comes out is the next great thing and before you know it you're wondering why you're sweating pit stains in your t-shirt carrying another milk crate full of Flock of Seagulls and Spandau Ballet vinyl records three flights up to your new apartment. As they say in Missouri "Show Me" and while we like the direction this team is going there's still a lot of speculation and only a smattering of proven substance.

    The pitching trio of Stephen Strasbourg, Jordan Zimmerman and Drew Storen coupled with the eventual first coming of the Savior Bryce Harper has things moving along in the right direction, but the buzz surrounding these guys tends to deflect attention from several shortcomings. First off the middle of the field is weak with only 2B Danny Espinosa's glove projecting as a real asset when taking into account the potential value of Espinosa, SS Ian Desmond, and CFs Roger Bernadina and Rick Ankiel. The Sage of the Second Division First Basemen Adam LaRoche unexcitingly mans one corner and while Ryan Zimmerman in the hotter of the two corners is a true star the recently back from being kidnapped C Wilson Ramos and LF Michael Morse look like regression candidates in 2012. That makes our key player RF Jayson Werth. No he's never going back to the 5+ win player he was in Philly, but nagging injuries and a 62 point BABIP drop last year suggest better things at the plate this year. If Werth can adequately fill a 3-4-5 hole and things break right there could be meaningful baseball into the fall in D.C. But until Strasbourg shows he can handle an extended workload and Harper proves himself vs. MLB pitching we're taking a Costco type approach, that is we'll sample the hype, but we're not buying just yet.

New York Mets-Two words: Sandy Alderson...alright that's one name, but the point is clear. The Mets are done with the free spending, Hispanic-fication of the roster as attempted by Omar Minaya and into a full-fledged rebuilding mode. And Alderson appears to be as good a man as they could get for the job.

    From 1983-97 GM Alderson's Oakland A's went to 3 World Series (winning one) and one ALCS after slowly rebuilding a team that had lost 94 games in 1982 and restocking its farm system. At his next stop in San Diego he put together 2 Division winners in 5 years. By no means is his record spotless, but after Minaya and the chubby chasing likes of Steve Phillips it's nice to know there's a guy with some proven success calling the shots at Citi Field.

    The Mets aren't gonna win this year or even next so we're not going to go into particulars, but if you want a key player try Johan Santana on for size. Already Alderson has cleared the multi-million dollar likes of Carlos Beltran, K-Rod, Luis Castillo, Jose Reyes and...God help us all...Oliver Perez off the books and getting someone to take Santana off their hands would be a bonus. He's signed through 2013, but the problem is coming off a year lost to major surgery no one knows what to expect. He'll be 36 by the time the Mets figure to contend so the idea of dropping all or a portion of his salary while getting some young talent in return is one that plays into the overall scheme here. Santana was ready to go Opening Day so things are starting off right. And who knows maybe this time that light at the end of the tunnel in Flushing Meadows isn't the D-Train.

And one to temporarily distract you Mets fans...

Done. We'll try to update once a week with our insights...and yes more pictures...so stop on back. Beer...what a good idea!