Sunday, November 13, 2011

More Thieves And Liars...NFL Notes Week 10

GENERAL NOTES

--So is it just me or can you picture Herman Cain barging into the National Restaurant Association Convention like Sheriff Bart in Blazing Saddles  screaming, "Where the white women at?" And while we're at it is Cain's ubiquitous 9-9-9 harangue turning into the political version of Moses Malone's "fo', fo', fo'" interview (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRPIJ1FFN_U)? I'm no politico, but the fact that he and Perry have almost single-handedly launched the staff-less Newt Gingrich back into the mix makes this whole thing look like the NFC West with Romney as the 49ers and the rest as the Seahawks, Rams and Cardinals.

--In Celebrity News Kim Kardashian's ex-publicist, Jonathan Jaxson, said her 72 day marriage never had a chance because she's still holding a torch for former boyfriend and Miami Dolphin RB Reggie Bush. Which reminds us of the scandalous Donna Rice, who also secretly pined for a Bush even as her 1987 affair with married Presidential candidate Gary Hart brought down his rising campaign. When questioned Rice admitted that, though she truly loved Hart, all along she planned on voting for George H.W. Bush in the election. When asked by the press how she reconciled that conundrum she proclaimed, "What can I say, in my heart I like Bush, but in my bush I like Hart." Well put indeed.

If you're gonna throw away your political career at least this beats Holy Hell outta Monica Lewinsky.

--And finally when you're half passed out drunk on the couch at two A.M. did you ever just wish one of the Bimbo Du Jour's on the dating show Excused! would tell sideways talking host Iliza Schlesinger, "Eddie Money called and he wants his mouth back..." No...it's just me...well, moving on...

NFL NOTES
--The worst dating advice I ever got is also the dating advice I received more often than any other and that is, "Be yourself"...Yeah, like that's gonna work!? I mean if "being myself" had any merit I wouldn't be meeting "Ruebenesque in Ridgefield" over a Blooming Onion at the bar of the Paramus Mall Outback Steakhouse in the first place now would I.
    And like in dating in football coaching sometimes you have to become something you're really not to succeed. Denver headman John Fox, for example, is not an offensive innovator. His gameplans in Carolina often made Woody Hayes look like Mouse Davis what with the running D'Angelo Williams into the middle of the line on first down over and over, then replacing him with Jonathan Stewart so he couldn't get any momentum and dammit where were the screens and...oh sorry...I still have some pent up Fantasy Football angst from 2 years ago to work out, but to the point...In Tim Tebow Fox has a QB who requires that he either change or lose. Trying to turn Timmy T. into a 2nd long/3rd long pocket passer is like turning "Layla" into a lazy, lilting, blues number and we all can admit now that just sucked.
    Last week Tebow ran more often and for more yards than in his previous two starts and after a slow 1st Half the Mile High-ers ended up routing Oakland in the 3rd/4th Quarters. The game played out much like the previous two with the Broncos trailing early, but this time Tebow used his best asset, his legs, to turn things around. In fact on every Denver scoring drive Tebow had one or more runs of double digits compared to none on the drives that ended in punts. And it's not necessarily the designed runs that are most effective, but rather the scrambles. If you're gonna have TT stand in the pocket going through progressions all day you might as well issue him a jersey with a Cross Hairs on it instead of a number like he was a Democratic Congressman on a Sarah Palin website map. Give him a primary target (and he doesn't have to lock in, he can look off and come back to that receiver) and tell him to take off or go to a TE/RB safety valve if that's not open.
    Alright, we're all sick of Tebow Talk at this point. But lack of imagination annoys me. Maybe you can't win with a QB like this. Maybe he will get injured too quickly. Maybe teams will adjust (of course you could then re-adjust). Maybe it just flat out is unfeasible due to the size and speed in the NFL. But exhaust your options before you give up the ghost. Hopefully Denver took a step in the right direction last week...and as for me, Ladies, I don't know if you've heard of Doctors Without Borders, but I'm....

--My Irish grandfather used to tell the story of growing up in County Cork where he and his friends would go out at night, get rip-roarin' drunk, piss all over the Blarney Stone and then come back the next day and laugh uproariously as the Tourists kissed it for luck. In other words we can't always see what's going on behind the scenes; except at that window they have in front of the grill at White Castle and frankly that's the one place I'd rather not know what's going on. Waiters could be spitting in your food, rats crawling across your soda cans, High School aged Baskin-Robbins employess blowing snot into the Prailines & Cream (or so I've heard) and worst of all coaches designing game plans that thoroughly undermine your well thought out wagers.
    A few weeks ago we wound up with a push when the Giants, after getting burned by two long TDs early, backed off defensively against the Bills and allowed Ryan Fitzgerald to almost dink and dunk his way to a road upset. With this in mind we shied away from the Jets last week, but Rex Ryan proved why he really is one of the best defensive minds in the game today by having his defense attack the line of scrimmage, jump the slant routes and lock up Stevie Johnson with their best CB, Darrell Revis. The result was the lowest offensive output for Buffalo this season and it may have been a glimpse into what we may get tonight in an excellent Sunday Night matchup.
    We talked last week about the Moss-less Pats having no deep threat so we expect to see more of the same attack mode out of the J-Men tonight. Brady's arm strength and quick release give N.E. a better chance than the Bills, but as was witnessed in the 1st half last week the days of Belichick/Brady's Flying Circus may be over vs. the league's better D's. The numbers tonight are PK/47.5. Fred and our picks will be below, but with Sanchez vs. Belichick's defensive scheming and Brady under attack by the Jets D this looks like a potential FG battle that leans towards the New Yorkers.

Apparently this cheer is in honor of the Bills wearing their throwback "Buffalo Standing There Taking A Dump" helmets last week.

--And speaking of the Patriots lack of a deep threat...what about T.O.? Wait, wait here me out on this. Now yes, I'm aware, T.O.'s public workout session drew less interest than a Yoko Ono Poetry Slam...and sure putting Owens and Belichick together is like bringing Gabourey Sidibe to Howard Stern's All-U-Can-Eat Buffett, but deseperate times call for deseprate measures. And that's exactly why we think this thing may actually have legs. A loss tonight would have the Pats-ies at 5-4 and on the outside of the playoff picture. That and a 3 game losing streak to the type of teams (Pit., NYG, NYJ) that he knows they need to beat to win it all could leave Bitter Billy open to some compromise.
    Now sure no one wants to take on T.O.'s attitude and histrionics, but that's what was said about Randy Moss upon leaving Oakland. Owens, of course, is older, but a half season deal that would put him in the most structured environment in the NFL with the idea that this could be his last shot hanging over his head could make for an uneasy, but fruitful short term marriage...aaand we're back to Kim Kardashian again.
    Jokes aside, though, depending on the outcome tonight it could make sense, but there are a lot of egos to navigate if it were to get done. Still it's a Hell of a lot better than sittin' around sadly every weekend watching Ocho Cinco try.

And one for the Patriots throwback helmets...

--Though Peyton Hillis isn't playing this week there's good news in that a planned Intervention was called off. I'm not sure if the Intervention was planned by management, his teammates or Fantasy owners everywhere, nor do I know what it entailed but if your invited I can tell you from experience it's best not to bring a six-pack and an 8-Ball. My favorite story in this vein is when Fred of "Fred's Picks" was coaxed into attending a Gambler's Anonymous meeting to which he brought a deck of cards surmising correctly, "when am I ever gonna be in a room with a bigger bunch of losers than this...there's money to be made!"...He busted.

--That said Fred has had his successes and failures in the wagering world and the experience has left him the wiser. Like us he suffers from one fatal sports betting flaw. For us it's silencing the voices of others and going with our own analysis. For Fred it's action. He likes it and therefore money management suffers as he backs teams that he may not have a strong feeling for. Here you get the best of all possible worlds as we're limiting Fred (3-2-1 on the year) to his best pick weekly and as his record shows early on it's usually fairly strong. Today's his play is Carolina -3 over Tennessee. The Titans 4-4 start has been helped by an easy sked and 5 home games. Their only road win is at Cleveland where they were outgained and out-first downed 25-13, but benefitted from an 80 yd. TD reception by TE Jared Cook and a 97 yd. INT return. The only cavaet is that beating Tennessee seems dependent on stopping their run game. Cleveland ranks 31st in rush D and got pummelled, unfortunately Carolina ranks 28th though they have played a tougher sked. Check Cam Newton's shoulder situation and then wager as you see fit.

--Wagering Wisdom: Top public team today according to BeyondTheBets.com is Baltimore -7 at Seattle. Tavaris Jackson will play. We mention this as positive only because that's how bad Charlie Whitehurst truly is. Recall Baltimore lost to Ten. on the road after beating Pit. in Week 1. Same scenario here and toss in their road blowup at Jax. as well and if you're a contrarian you might see this as a low scoring affair that favors Seattle...In another odd positive note Rex Grossman may get the start in Miami. He stinks, but gives them a chance against a low level team. John Beck gives them a chance against no one...And despite the MNF loss the public is back on Philly pushing the line from -12 to -14 in many places though I think it would take globe-like cajones to back Fordham's own John "Don't Call Me Red" Skelton who starts in place of Kevin Kolb today...We'll stick with our guns and go Jets-Patriots Under 47.5 and allow ourselves to watch the early games in peace. Here's to many a FG tonight. Good luck, good day, get drunk!

It says this girl's name is Marzia Banghard...yeah sure...pleased to meet you I'm Studley Hungwell...

Old school wrestling at "Seminal Sluts and "Crimson Mask" titles. Erin Andrews and women of ESPN at "Something In The Way She Says Gamecocks" or just look around, if nothing else there's well-endowed models everywhere.