Another Dreadful, Selfish Crime (NL Central Notes & More)

This week we handicap the jumbled NL Central race where 4 teams legitimately have a shot at the title. We’d also like to note we were correct about the Huston Street trade freeing up a trade of Chase Headley to the Yankees because, well, as my ex-wife always reminded me it doesn’t happen often. But first there’s this…

PEN PERUSALS: Last week we wrote about Anaheim’s acquisition of Huston Street, but practically every contender could use another good arm or two in the bullpen, none more than Detroit and Baltimore, so let’s look at the names being tossed around…Antonio “You Magnificent” Bastardo (Phi.)- This guy should be stocking up on potable water because Detroit seems to have him on their short list. Loved this guy when he came up, but today I’m not a buyer. His velocity has been like a Tom Petty encore lately…Free Fallin’…and he’s never had a BB/9 rate under 4.00. His standard numbers look good, but his BABIP is at .223 after topping .285 the last two seasons and at a 68.5% LOB Alan Hale, Jr. stranded more people. He is lefty though and the less innings Phil Coke gets the better. Still I think a nicer target might be Wesley Wright (Chi.)- the last time he allowed a run (5/23) there was peace in Gaza…you know, sort of…The problem is the Cubs have used him almost exclusively as a LOOGY meaning his ability vs. RH is questionable. Still with many games to go vs. the LH-heavy Indians he could be worth a look. James Russell (Chi.)- on the other hand we say is not. Also LH, Russell’s BB rate is up at 4.50/9 this year and his FIP has only seen the good side of 4.00 once in 5 years. He’s a sabermetric nightmare and the switch to the AL might just expose those flaws. Bringing us to Jonathan Papelbon (Phi.)- This guy’s velocity  numbers have taken a downward spiral of Amy Winehouse-ian proportions…4 MPH off both his fastball and splitter, a K/9 at a career low 7.81, but he keeps getting saves when Philly gives him the opportunity. Problem is he’s announced he’ll only accept a trade to a team that will use him exclusively as a closer. That means Detroit would have to jettison the Joe Nathan Project so Baltimore where Zach Britton has a dead fish-like grip on the role may be a possible destination. The sweetest plum of them all though might be Andrew Miller (Bos.)- it’s unsure the direction the Beantowners are taking, but word is they may dangle Miller for prospects (though dangling things for prospects has never worked very well for me). A former #6 overall pick that failed as a starter in Det./Mia. He’s become dominant in the pen since 2012 with a K/9 over 13.00 over that period. This year he’s at 14.54 K/9 with a 1.73 FIP. He could be an instant closer in the NL or a super setup man in say Anaheim…stay tuned.

Get ready Baltimore Paps may be dancing his way into your hearts!

 

RED SOX: A friend of friend played low Minor League ball with recently cut Red Sox C A.J. Pierzynski. Knowing his reputation as a self-centered jerk I asked the guy for his opinion of Pierzynski as a person to which he replied, “imagine the biggest A-Hole you ever met then multiply it by 10!” Of course Pierzynski was in his early 20s then and we all mellow over time. Heck, I haven’t dumped my empty White Castle boxes on someone’s lawn in years…ok, months, but that E-Harmony b-tch had it coming….and it looked like at 37 he was a good fit to replace Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Uh…not so…Pierzynski was released and afterward several Sox players complained he spent too much time on his cell phone even laughing and texting folks immediately after losses. Miraculously after A.J.’s departure Boston went 8-2 and closed the gap for the 2^nd Wild Card to 6.

Jon Lester has been lights out, John Lackey is always solid and most importantly Clay Bucholz has gone 2-1 with a 24/1 K/BB in his last 4 starts since changing the grip on his changeup (then screwed this article last night in Tor.). With Seattle struggling and the AL a paragon of parity beyond OAK/ANA/DET who knows. I’m not a believer in clubhouse chemistry and intangibles but could cutting out the A.J. Pierzynski cancer be this year version of the Bobby Valentine purge? Or point toward a 2015 rebound?

WHY? AWARD: This week’s award goes to Cub SP Tsuyoshi Wada who will be #5 in the rotation for the foreseeable future. The Orioles brought Wada over from Japan at 31 years old to, I assume, act as translator/caddy for Wei-Yei Chen. His last season in Japan he topped 90 on the radar gun exactly once and Baltimore promptly ditched him in Norfolk, Virginia and forgot about him. It’s not that Wada can’t win in the short term. In fact Fantasy-wise he’s not a bad pickup to junkball his way past the Padres/Phillies/Rockies of the world. The question is why leave youngsters like recently acquired Dan Straily (positive AL to NL move possibilities-see Jake Arrieta below) and Dallas Beeler in Iowa when the 33 yo Wada will be home sipping sake by the time the Cubs contend?

NL CENTRAL: In order of predicted finish…

Milwaukee- They’ve overcome their pre-ASG swoon to take back first and have just enough pitching it appears to get a potent offense to the finish line. Kyle Lohse and Yovani Gallardo are solid if unspectacular, but Matt Garza may be a concern. His K’s are at their lowest rate since his move to the NL and last week he lasted all of 1 out vs. Washington putting up a Bill James GameScore of 17 (114 is tops) and considering, that like filling out your name on the SATs, you get 20 points for just stepping on the mound that’s troubling. The key could be if Swingman Tyler Thornburg can return in August. That would send struggling prospect Jimmy Nelson to the minors, floundering Marco Estrada to the pen and give Milwaukee 5 arms that while not Wainwright-ian can, with their offense, get them a win every night.

Keg for a body, tap for a nose...a mascot the whole family can enjoy!

 

St.Louis- We had them right there with Mil. until the Yadier Molina injury. Now we have them right there with Pit. If Matt Holliday was having his usual year and/or prospect Oscar Taveras came out and toreit up we might be higher on them. As it is Adam Wainwright, Jeter-gate aside, and Lance Lynn are a formidable duo on top of this staff and Adams/Carpenter/Peralta keep the offense moving. Toss in the sudden improvement of young 2B Kolten “Don’t F*ck With The” Wong(s) and there’s still plenty of hope for the Division or a WC. How soon Yaddy and Fozzy Bear’s favorite player Michael Wacha can get back will determine how high they can fly.

Pittsburgh- On the one hand we’d like to see this small-market darling succeed. On the other hand there’s something about an ownership that lets it’s best pitcher (A.J. Burnett) and one of its best hitters (Marlon Byrd-.843 OPS after a deadline deal) walk away then bring in the replacement-level stylings of Edison Volquez and claim they’re committed to winning. That said all we have to add, and we can’t put this forcefully enough, is Gerrit Cole! If the former #1 overall pick comes back to the rotation next week, as planned, there’s hope that there’s just enough pitching, just enough hitting and just enough of Andrew McCutchen to get them back to the playoffs. Otherwise a staff of Morton/Locke/Volquez/Worley does not a World Series contender make.

Cincinnati- In the 1977 Burt Reynolds/Kris Kristofferson film Semi-Tough character Puddin Patterson as played by soon-to-be Magnum P.I. sidekick Roger E. Mosley says, “…when Santa Claus givin’ out presents Santa Claus wears a beard, but right now Santa Claus eatin’ ribs and Santa Claus don’t wear no beard when Santa Claus eatin’ ribs…and that’s what you need to know’about Santa Claus!” As for the Reds they have the best pitching top to bottom in the division, a killer closer in Aroldis Chapman and a stud at the plate in Todd Frazier, but Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips won’t return until late August the earliest, they’ve gone 2-8/L10 without them and are now 5.5 GB…and that’s what you need to know ‘bout the Reds!

Chicago Cubs- The Cubs are only the 3^rd worst team in baseball so like Carl Spackler said in Caddyshack about being granted total consciousness on his deathbed by the Dali Lama…”they got that going for ‘em”. Otherwise the Cubs are currently treading water and collecting prospects in hopes of a breakout in the near future. Some say that will be in 2015, but frankly we ain’t seein’ it. Yes the organization is doing the right thing, probably the only thing, they can do to turn this mess around, but it’s gonna take time. Looking at the organizational depth charts there’s plenty of top prospects, but few, particularly, on the pitching side who figure to hit the majors with any impact till 2016. 1B Anthony Rizzo, 2B Arismendy Alcantara, SS Starlin Castro and #1 prospects Addison Russell and Javier Baez portend a strong infield with something leftover. The OF, however, is a different story with most prospects 2 years away from the big time. Toss in that next year’s projected Ace is the poster child for the AL to NL success story Jake Arrieta (4.65/5.05/6.20 ERA in 3 full seasons in Bal., sub-2.80 ERA in 23 NL starts) and this is not exactly a team on the cusp. Wait til next, next year should be the cry in Cub-ville come this winter.

Comments are tolerated…so feel free to indulge…More MLB and maybe some NFL soon!

Pills in the Tip Jar, Blood on the Strings (MLB 2nd Half Notes)

It’s been a while, but we’re back with more left-of-center ramblings on the Dog Days of the Diamond. Some notes, some predictions, a dollop of stupidity that hopefully will help in your viewing enjoyment, gambling and Fantasy Finagling…

SARATOGA: First a quick shout-out to all those who participated in the annual Bowling Til It Hurts Saratoga Extravaganza/Drunken Brawl.  The SPA’s opening day was attended by the largest group of BTIH revelers to date and featured the usual grog-ing, gorging, gambling and gaping at the gaggles of gorgeous girls in attendance. Generally seeing a pretty woman at the race track is like seeing Democrats voting in a Mississippi Republican Primary…something’s wrong behind the scenes. Opening Day at Saratoga, however, is Derby Day done right with a relaxed atmosphere and bucolic setting that brings out the beauties and ,Hell, there’s just something about a Coors-swigging coed in a summer dress and six-inch heels that does this old heart good…plus I like the giant, floppy hats…like a cross between a Southern Matron and one of the Manson Girls…

Squeeky Fromme? Heck, I’d throw her a chop…

TRADES: We’ll have more on potential trades below, but the first big post-ASG trade hit Friday with closer Huston Street going to the Angels. I’m usually wary of players moving from the weaker NL to the AL, but Street did close (albeit less successfully) with Oakland to start his career. He also survived a stint in the thin air of Colorado and has saved a stellar 164 of 179 in the last 6 years so he should remain solid.

The side-winding Joe Smith moves back to a setup role and is immediate Fantasy fodder. As is Kevin Jepsen who appeared to be closer-in-waiting if Smith faltered. Meanwhile 37 yo Joaquin Benoit moves into the closer role in SD backed up by Dale Thayer and Kevin Quackenbush. Benoit saved 24 for Detroit in 2013 so he’ll be given the opportunity, but as things continue to go south in Friar-ville look for the 24 yo Quackenbush to perhaps be thrust into the role as Chef of the fu…er…Closer of the future.

As for further Roster/Fantasy implications from this trade only INF Taylor Lindsey, a #1 Prospect for both Baseball America and Prospectus, is of any immediate note. He’s been average in AAA, but could be pointing to a trade of 3B Chase Headley to a contender. Possible destinations of KC or the Yankees would boost his run producing capabilities while freeing him of offense numbing Petco Park. Stay tuned.

RYAN BRAUN: In Monty Python’s Sex Education skit school master John Cleese asks the students for a good way to stimulate intercourse to which a prep school lad replies, “…massaging the clitoris…” An exasperated Cleese screams, “What about a simple kiss…why must everyone go rushing headlong for the clitoris?!?” I feel the same way about HRs and PEDs. Everyone links the two inextricably, but this season has given us a perfect test case that shows the real underlying benefits of Performance Enhance-ables.

This season the supposedly clean Ryan Braun has missed nearly as many games (23) as he had in his previous 4 full seasons from 2009-12 (27). The true goal of steroids and other PEDs is not to necessarily create bulk, but to expedite recovery from injury or soreness. No doubt Ryan Braun is an excellent hitter and allowed to play a full season at near 100% the numbers will no doubt add up. In reality, however, a 162-game grind should yield highs and lows with nagging injuries or DL stints deflating numbers particularly as a player gets into his 30s.

Braun has suffered from back problems and other dings this season. His numbers are slightly deflated as one would expect and his days of 30+ steals (2010-11) are, like my hemorrhoids, all behind him now. Obviously this could be coincidental, but career arcs like that of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and others just don’t make sense no matter what kind of Workout Warriors they claim to be. From a Fantasy perspective be wary of Braun come the dog days of late August and September. On the wrong side of 30 and with the little injuries adding up he could be a candidate for a juice-less fade down the stretch.

THE WHY LIST: Like giving Matthew Perry another sitcom I often ask why certain players are hanging around on rosters long past any sense of usefulness. This week’s WHY Award is a tie between the Cubs Edwin Jackson and the right-hander formerly known as Fausto Carmona, Roberto Hernandez of the Phillies.

Jackson has “rebounded” from an 18 loss 2013 to go 5-10 with a well-fed 5.61 ERA. Meanwhile Hernandez is 4-8 while walking 4.6 per 9 IP and producing a -.1 WAR meaning any old Minor Leaguer you throw a dart at could be expected to do just as well. Both Philly and Chicago are long out of their races so if a bag of balls and a dented batting practice screen become available these guys should move. Otherwise the initials D.F.A appear to be in their very near future.

The Def Leppard Drummer Award: Handed out to relief pitcher with appearances above and beyond the call of duty is currently led by Arizona righty Brad Ziegler with 50 appearances to date. He’s succeeded as a setup man in both Phoenix and Oakland, can pitch every day and is tough on righties with a sidearm delivery. If Detroit hasn’t called about him yet somebody’s asleep at the phones…

Baseball Bookshelf: This week’s selection is Tight Pussy, Schmight Pussy; or Why I Like Loose Women by Jack Glasscock…Enjoy!

 

…and here’s Cristie Kerr accepting the trophy at the LPGA Jack Glasscock Invitational…Congrats!

NL EAST REPORT

2^nd half projections…

Washington: Once ATL C Evan Gattis returns from his rehab stint the Nats and the Braves are all in for the Division Title. Barring injury I’m giving the advantage to Washington whose staff is easily tops in the Division. Jordan Zimmerman will avoid the DL and start Tuesday at Colorado meaning the Big 4 of Zimmerman, Strasburg, Gonzalez and Fister is set for the final push. Tanner Roark at 9-6, 2.91 and under 2 BBs per 9 makes for a nice kicker on the river. Add in the Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Rafael Soriano bridge thru the 9^th and as long as the offense is adequate the ghosts of Goose Goslin and the Senators could very well be vanquished this year.

Atlanta: Dan Uggla’s gone, but unfortunately B.J. Upton (.216 BA, .619 OPS) lives on and bats leadoff for this squad. Combined with Chris Johnson’s and Aaron Harang’s contracts with devil apparently expiring this team has some cracks that Washington doesn’t. RHP Gavin Floyd hopes to be back, but anyone he replaces would make for a lateral move at best. And maybe it’s just me but something feels like ace Julio Teheran is gonna be draggin’ ass (it’s a technical term) down the stretch as he fast approaches a personal IP high. If only Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy hadn’t gone under the knife in Spring training…Damn You Tommy John! It should be close, but I see them hoping the NL Central beats each other up so they can take a nice Wild Card tuck by season’s end.

Marlins: Like an exotic dancer with an inner ear infection this group has fallen off the table losing 6 straight lately. That said I’m not buying the Mets whole big bag of crap either so those two should be close, battling it out a safe distance from the playoffs in September. Any team with Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton should be Wild Card eligible in the NL so 2015 could be their breakthrough year. Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez are 24 years old and already adequate to serve behind Fernandez along with Baseball Prospectus #1 prospect Andrew Heaney who dominated AA and should be back up in September.  Christian Yelich and Marcel Ozuna compliment Stanton well in the outfield so if infield and bullpen help emerges there’s a potentially bright future ahead…then again owner Jeffrey Loria is one giant douchebag so things could go either way.

TRADE NOTE: 3B Casey McGehee and his .386 OBA could bring in offers. He spent half a season with the Yankees in 2012 so they may be calling.

Mets: Closer Jennry Mejia announced yesterday that the Mets will march into the playoffs because “they believe in each other!” I think the Donner Party said the same thing about California. This is another eye on 2015 club. Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Zack Wheeler and Jacob DeGrom could make up an above-average to very good staff next year. As for top prospect Noah Syndergaard concerns about his lack of AAA success seem premature. He’s only 21 yo and though his ERA is 5.74 it appears to be inflated by an ungodly .383 BABIP (his FIP is only 4.10) and he’s striking out more than a batter per inning with only 2.79 BBs per 9. If the expected Bartolo Colon trade yields a SS or corner OF this team could be a Division contender next year, but it all hinges on Harvey.

Phillies: In High School our football team was described as “small, but slow”. For the Phightins’ the phrase might be they’re “old, but fading” and/or “inexperienced, but mediocre”. Rollins and Utley are soldiering on as best they can, but Ryan Howard is done. Marlon Byrd, Cliff Lee, Jonathon Papelbon and Cole Hamels are attractive trade chips and GM Ruben Amaro better get a good haul because the future here looks bleak. The next shit Dominic Brown gives will be his first while conversely Cody Asche, John Mayberry Jr., Cesar Hernandez and Cameron Rupp try hard but just don’t have the talent. The bullpen is a mess save for hard throwing Jake Diekman and after viewing several games I can say I see Ryne Sandberg as having a long career in the broadcast booth ahead of him. Of note is C Carlos Ruiz who comes off the Concussion DL shortly. He puts up adequate numbers and could be dangled in front of the Wieter-less Orioles for prospects…There’s work to be done!

Thanks for the read and look in soon for inanity!